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06:55 EST Five Senate seats haven't been called. Republicans lead in MT, WI, MI, and PA; NV is a tie

06:10 EST Ruben Gallego won but Jacky Rosen is behind; Trump had GIGANTIC coattails

06:03 EST Trump is likely to win ALL the swing states by substantial margins. It's a big red wave

06:02 EST Trump is on track to get well over 300 electoral votes

06:01 EST Trump is leading in Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan

05:59 EST Republicans lead in the House but it is not over

05:56 EST Tim Sheehy is way ahead of Jon Tester in Montana. The Republicans won the Senate easily

05:50 EST The Republicans are leading in the Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania but itis close

05:45 EST CNN has called the presidency for Trump

05:40 EST Trump has won Wisconsin

02:39 EST On that note, we're going to close it down for the evening. See you tomorrow (well, Thursday morning).

02:38 EST Reader S.S.L. in Battle Creek, MI writes: "I just heard Trump laugh for the first time while discussing CNN and MSNBC being his enemies. That was chilling. Please offer any sanity you can, when you can, if you can."

We reply: "We'll do our level best."

02:37 EST Reader S.B. in Berkshire, England, UK writes: "I'm a former Northeastern Republican, I hate what's happened to the party since Gingrich's time. But now, it seems that most of the country has bought into putting a draft-dodging, tax-dodging, convicted felon, sexual predator incompetent back into the most powerful position in the world. I'm glad that I received my British citizenship, I don't see myself going back to America ever again. So utterly disappointed on so many levels. "

02:37 EST Reader P.S. in Arlington, TN writes: "I had that 2016 feeling. Now that 2024 feeling.

"I'm afraid for my kids. My family. I'm afraid for the world. I'm afraid for the impact for the domestic impacts and foreign impacts. I don't understand it. I believe we are on the cusp of the downturn of the American experiment. And we voted for it. Do we stay and fight for our vision of what America is? Or do we leave when we have daughters and we feel it won't be safe for them to exist with a uterus?

"I don't know how to go forward.

"I don't know what America is anymore.

02:31 EST Reader P.S. in Arlington, TN observes: "As this election comes to a close, Trump is around 7 million short of his total from 2020. Kamala Harris is 21 million short of Biden's numbers. It looks to me as if the exact same people showed up for Trump. Democrats stayed home."

02:29 EST Reader D.M. in Asheville, NC writes: "In response to J.L.'s Australian friend. I have to agree that my country is not yet an emotionally and intellectually mature society. Maybe Kurt Anderson had the right of it and we really are a nation of con artists and their marks. "

02:29 EST Reader G.W.A. in Tolleson, AZ writes: "I said this in 2016 and have been saying it often since then. Our country is sick. Very sick. Until we root out the causes of this sickness, the symptoms will continue to manifest in our politics and everywhere else. A single election (even a positive one as we had 4 years ago) is not a cure. I for one don't even think Trump is going to last 4 years and that will leave us with the guy from "A Handmaid's Tale" as the CEO. In two years we will have a chance to reclaim some clout but we've been there before and it cycled back to where we are now. I wish I had a magic pill to prescribe. But I don't. I only know that we have to keep talking to each other with love and respect, not hate and derision. This is not always easy to do, but we have to try and not give up. At the same time we have to fight for each other and alongside each other to keep moving forward, no matter what kind of obstacles are placed in our path. That's all I've got for now. I wish it were more."

02:29 EST Reader A.J. in Mountain View, CA writes: "My wife and I discussed tonight what country we could move to after tonight, just jokingly (although it might have been less joking if we didn't already live in California). Anyone in Japan interested in having a nice, quiet couple crash on their couch?"

02:29 EST Reader A.G. in Scranton, PA writes: "Real people will suffer next year. And America is okay with that."

02:27 EST Donald Trump is about to address his supporters. He is flanked by soon-to-be First-Lady-in-absentia Melania Trump. Do you think she'll divorce him soon, now that they no longer have a need for each other?

02:20 EST Would Democrats have been better off sticking with Joe Biden? There are going to be a lot of op-eds on that point in the next few days, and we think the answer is "no." The debate was brutal, and while we don't think he's completely gone, he clearly can't be his best self 100% of the time, or even 75% of the time. The whole campaign would have been about his gaffes. Similarly, we don't see how "a process" that produced some other replacement for Biden (Gavin Newsom? Gretchen Whitmer?) would have worked out differently. Just as the Republicans spent years villainzing the Clintons, which laid the groundwork for 2016, they've spent years slamming the Democrats for the economy, being pro-trans, being socialist, etc. Further, the worldwide trend is "throw the bums out" and "reactionary." Knowing what we know now, the headwinds were almost certainly too great for any Democrat not named Obama.

02:18 EST Donald Trump is likely to win the popular vote, a first for him.

02:12 EST Reader T.H. in Champaign, IL writes: "Let's be realistic. Everybody in the nation knows about J6. Everyone saw the then-sitting president, who was under an oath to defend the Constitution, attack the Constitution. Today, they voted to give him power again. A voting majority of the American people has repudiated their own Constitution. Democracies can't continue to be democracies when the majority of the people don't want democracy anymore. It's not the demagogue, it's not the politicians, it's not the oligarchs, it's not the press. It's the people.

"When was America ever great? When did we ever try to live up to our Founding Fathers' ideals? Not when we had race-based slavery. Not when segregation was the law. Not when government actively supported a particular religion. There is a reason Europeans looked down on America—America deserved to be looked down upon.

"Starting with the New Deal, we took a shot at living up to those standards. We got better with the Civil Rights movement, and LGBTQ freedoms. But the majority has officially ended that tonight. And with the help of the Christo-Fascist Supreme Court, they have the power to make it stick."

02:06 EST CNN has joined Fox in projecting Pennsylvania for Donald Trump. That, in effect, makes him the next President of the United States.

02:04 EST As expected, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have traded EVs in ME-02 and NE-02.

02:00 EST Reader C.K. in Union City, CA observes: "Madam Justice Sotomayor MUST step down tomorrow."

02:00 EST Reader J.L. in Los Angeles, CA passes this along, from a friend in Australia: "I hope Trump breaks America so much it forces everyone to wake the fark up. Today proved the USA is still mentally immature as a nation. The rest of the world weeps."

01:58 EST Reader E.M.H. in Oslo, Norway writes: "I see, and understand, that many are disappointed and tired now. I feel the same way. That said, it's more important than ever to stay informed and involved in American politics.

"I, for my part, will still daily read your blog with gratitude and interest.

"Many of us are knocked down, but we can't afford to be knocked out."

We reply: "Hear, hear!"

01:56 EST Reader D.M. in Asheville, NC writes: "'Does that mean that Democrats simply can't nominate a woman and expect to win the presidency?' When Harris was chosen as the candidate, my first thought was of imminent disaster for my party and my worldview because I did not think a woman could win much less a black woman. The enthusiasm her candidacy generated gave me hope, but apparently a false hope. At 79, I doubt I will live long enough to see a female president. In retrospect, I should have trusted my instincts and resigned myself to a second Trump presidency. My health is excellent, however, so perhaps I will live long enough to see Donald shuffle off to that great golf course in the sky, though in his case the fairways will be carpeted with nettles and the greens with crabgrass. Of course he will also have to carry his own clubs."

01:53 EST Harris' chances are not looking good, but if you're looking for some small sliver of hope, she's currently down 5 million votes nationwide. The same polls that were favorable to Donald Trump also had the popular vote nearly equal. So, those 5 million votes are probably out there somewhere.

01:32 EST This election will cost us some readers, as people (reasonably) try to tune out politics for a while. Maybe a long while. A.L. in Switzerland writes: "I was following your blog now since about four elections. I never lived in the US and never intended to, and US politics was never my hobby, but your blog was well written and funny, and I really liked it. But now is the time to say good-bye: I want to reduce my exposure to news on US politics "to a minimum for the next years. It is unbearable.

"The rise of the AfD in my former country, Germany, is bad enough. But at least it is far from becoming the ruling party. The citizen of the US decided today to elect an authoritarian idiot to be their president. That is their right, but I don't want to hear any of it any more: it is sickening.

I wish you all the best, and thanks for all the fish ;-)"

Meanwhile, S.K. in Bethesda, MD writes: "After today's devastating results, and their implications for how things will unfold in the coming years, I have to wonder whether it would be best for my mental health to distance myself from political events for awhile. I have maybe cared too much—and I have worked very hard to avoid this outcome (I gave large amounts of time and money). But this is the country we live in and it's going to get a lot worse before it eventually might get better (perhaps not in my lifetime). I can't think of when was the last time I missed an Electoral-Vote.com edition—but it's hard to imagine how it is going to be anything other than a source of stress and frustration for the foreseeable future. What's wrong with my reasoning?"

We can certainly understand these sentiments. It's not going to be easy to WRITE the blog, especially tomorrow, All we can say is "Do what is best for you, and we hope you'll be back eventually."

01:26 EST Fox has called Pennsylvania for Donald Trump. We don't quite trust them, under the circumstances, but others may not be far behind.

01:19 EST Reader T.A. in Nicaragua writes: Everyone (myself included) who believes that this is the end should remember a few things: (1) Donald Trump is incompetent, (2) It's still all about the grift.

The number one obstacle that will block the Project 2025 agenda will be the grifter-in-chief himself. He doesn't give a damn about policy, and as each line item is placed before him for his signature, his first, last and only consideration will be, "What's in it for me?" He will squeeze them for whatever he can and if they don't pony up, he will decide he needs to "Think about it."

His base is going to wonder why all of a sudden he doesn't care about them. And the reason is, he doesn't need them to get elected ever again.

01:07 EST Arizona looks set to approve abortion access. Colorado and Maryland, too. but that's no surprise. More surprising are Missouri and Montana, where the pro-choice position leads by 7-9 points. And initiatives have already passed in Nevada and New York. For updates on other initiatives, NBC News has a good rundown.

01:05 EST Harris is now in a position where she must have Pennsylvania. She's down 3 points there with 93% reporting.

01:02 EST We're getting lots of e-mails from Trumpers gloating about their victory.

00:59 EST Trump is leading by 3-5 points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. It could be a blowout.

00:56 EST Reader N.N. in Murray, KY writes:

It's hard to love
There's so much to hate
Hanging onto hope
When there is no hope to speak of
And the wounded skies above
Say it's much too late
So maybe we should all be praying for time

00:45 EST Kamala Harris' campaign said she won't be speaking tonight. So, no final result this evening.

00:44 EST Joe Biden won Latinos by 32 points. Harris is winning them by 8 points. Does that mean that Democrats simply can't nominate a woman and expect to win the presidency?

00:41 EST Trump has won Georgia.

00:39 EST We have lots of disappointed readers right now, as you might imagine. For example, reader C.S. in Los Angeles, CA, writes: "Had several good conversations with coworkers about election things here in CA district 27. Actually encouraged a handful to actually go vote. Some of these coworkers are in my estimation more right leaning then myself. I find myself somewhere in the left leaning but Libertarian thoughts. These coworkers approached me for my opinions and thoughts on things as I am seen as more liberal than most.

"What struck me was that we had good conversations where i was asked questions and I gave answers not only on my opinions, but also knowledge i gained from reading your site all these years and quite frankly it opened a lot of their mings to a different angle of looking at things (which ultimately inspired them to go vote.)

"What troubles me about these results most is that I can have great conversations and get people thinking, but most of the poeple in this country would rather blindly go down a path of hate and ignorance thinking they are right than to admit they don't have all the answers. Its easier to hate than to love. I get it. But so many people so easily closing their eyes and ears. It makes me lose hope for our future as a nation."

Meanwhile, reader E.W. in Skaneateles, NY writes: "Wait, let me get this straight... Americans are just A-okay with racism, fascism, and sexism, as long as the prices of eggs, milk, and gasoline don't go up? Do I have that right? So disappointed in our country. This should not have even been close..."

00:35 EST Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) has held on, defeating Dan Osborn (I).

00:25 EST The House is still very much in play. Republicans have flipped three seats, Democrats two, for a net Republican gain of one seat. There are still 99 seats up in the air.

00:25 EST Donald Trump is currently up 2.7% in Pennsylvania (87% reporting), 5.5% in Michigan (51%), 3.7% in Wisconsin (78%), 0.6% in Arizona (52%), and 2.3% in Georgia (93%). Nevada hasn't reported enough votes to be meaningful. As per usual in the Midwest, the big, urban areas will be counted last. There is still a path for Harris, but it looks something like this: WI, MI, NV, AZ plus the blue-leaning states that haven't been called yet.

00:17 EST Reader J.H. in Grays Harbor County, WA, writes: "As a software engineer (now retired) it always seemed the bigger the stakes, the higher the management, the more likely the software demonstration would not work, even after extensive testing. We always said there was some kind of detector which knew the stakes, and we didn't know how to turn off that detector. I know you feel frustrated, however, the gift of your words over the past few years and since 2004, more than make up for tonight's desired live map updates. Thank you for creating and updating this site, as you do so well."

We have gotten many such warm and supportive messages. We are really disappointed at how things have gone, and so really appreciate the kind words.

00:02 EST Pennsylvania is not looking great for Harris. And without Pennsylvania...

00:01 EST Harris won Hawaii and NE-02

23:56 EST Bernie Moreno won Ohio; the Republicans will control the Senate

23:54 EST Trump is up by 2 points in Georgia

23:52 EST Trump is ahead by 3.6 points in Pennsylvania

23:48 EST Heinrich (NM) and Kaine (VA) were reelected

23:43 EST Trump is now leading in all three Blue Wall states

23:37 EST The AP has called North Carolina for Trump

23:33 EST Harris won the West Coast, as expected

23:24 EST Trump is leading by 3 points in North Carolina

05:50 EST < Trump won Wiscconsin

23:13 EST Harris is up by 1 in Michigan

23:12 EST None of the swing states have been called

22:56 EST We apologize profusely for the giant screw-up. Software that was tested 100x and worked perfectly in test mode didn't work for real. Software is like that. Also, one of us had a personal emergency late this afteroon. We are really sorry this didn't go as planned.

22:52 EST Apparently Ann Selzer got it wrong. Iowa is projected for Trump

22:15 EST Consistent with the note below, polls in Nevada and Arizona are expected to stay open late due to long lines. So, it could be quite a while until the swing/swingy states are called.

22:13 EST We had many reports of apparent enthusiasm from readers reporting from their polling places. For example:

21:57 EST Reader W.F. in Orlando, FL comments: "Regardless of the outcome tonight, the takeaway for Democrats has to be to go back to the Bill Clinton message, "It's the economy stupid." If Harris loses, it's most likely because Harris ceded the economic argument to Republican (mis)messaging. Despite Biden/Harris creating record numbers of jobs during their term, their campaign was primarily: (1) Anti-Trump, (2) Abortion rights, and (3) turnout operation/ground game. It's not enough. Democrats must improve their economic messaging going forward."

Our response: We are not so sure kitchen-table issues matter as much these days as culture wars issues do. Further, it is pretty easy to run on "the economy is bad," whether or not it actually is. It's MUCH harder to run on "the economy is good," even if it really is.

21:51 EST Kamala Harris is currently leading in all the Blue Wall states, including Pennsylvania, but of course less than a third of the vote has been counted in all those places.

21:40 EST Angela Alsobrooks has defeated Larry Hogan in Maryland. So, for the first time, the Senate will have two Black women serving concurrently.

21:38 EST Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is down 4 (50.7% to 46.3%) with 62% reporting, though a lot of the uncounted votes are in urban areas. For example, only 36% of the vote in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) is counted.

21:33 EST The Sun Belt route looks to be gone for Harris. However, it was the Blue Wall where she put most of her chips.

20:59 EST Josh Stein (D) has defeated Mark Robinson (R) to become the next governor of North Carolina. No surprise there.

20:58 EST The Florida marijuana legalization initiative has gone up in smoke.

20:36 EST We tested our election night setup a hundred times, and it passed with flying colors. Tonight, it broke. We're working on it.

20:35 EST Reader E.L. in Dallas, TX observes: "One silver (blue) lining in the Florida results are that Kamala did much better than Biden in Osceola county which has large Asian and Puerto Rican population. This could bode well for Arizona." We would add: It could also bode well for Pennsylvania.

20:32 EST Not surprisingly, given the results there, it looks like the Florida abortion initiative is headed to defeat, and will come up a few points short of the 60% needed for approval.

20:27 EST Lisa Blunt Rochester is the third Black woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate, after Carol Moseley Braun and Kamala Harris. Laphonza Butler, who was appointed, brings the total number of Black woman senators in U.S. history to four.

20:24 EST Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) won reelection, as expected. The other Senate races that have been called are even less surprising, as Roger Wicker (R-MS), Andy Kim (D-NJ), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Jim Banks (R-IN), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) and Jim Justice (R-WV) are all winners. That's a total of one flip (WV), which was expected.

20:19 EST Florida was not close. Harris' numbers lag Joe Biden's across most of the state. Not a good sign for her.

19:42 EST Here we go.


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