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New polls: AZ CA CO FL GA MI MN MO NC NH NJ NV NY OH PA VA WA WI
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: AZ GA

Before We Begin...

Today is a big day, to say the least. It's also a very strange day, because while we are just days or hours from something very momentous, nobody can know what things will look like when we come out on the other side. What will this weekend bring? President-elect Harris? President-(re-)elect Trump? Outcome unknown? Rioting in the streets? Calm, and observations that it was all "much ado about nothing"? Just about anything is possible.

We will, of course, be here with liveblogging, starting around 7:00 p.m. EST today. If you would like to join the Electoral-Vote.com slack channel, hosted by reader B.J. in Arlington, MA, the link you need is here. We will not be participating or monitoring, primarily because we don't want participants to feel constrained. If we're dunderheads who can't tell a politician from a potatoe, you should be able to write that freely. However, we WILL be monitoring comments@electoral-vote.com, and we will be running some reader messages as part of our liveblogging. We are particularly interested, of course, in "on the scene" reports from folks who are in swingy states/districts or who are helping run the election. We will probably also answer some questions, as we'll also be monitoring questions@electoral-vote.com.

Here is when the polls close across the nation (states with multiple closing times are listed under their earliest time):

Time (EST) Polls close in
6:00 p.m. Indiana, Kentucky
7:00 p.m. Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30 p.m. North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8:00 p.m. Alabama, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi,
Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas
8:30 p.m. Arkansas
9:00 p.m. Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico,
New York, Wisconsin, Wyoming
10:00 p.m. Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah
11:00 p.m. California, Washington
12:00 a.m. Alaska, Hawaii


The swing states are in bold. Maine and Nebraska are on the list due to the one electoral vote in ME-02 and the one in NE-02. Could there be surprises? It is possible that due to weather some polls might stay open longer than normal. And there could be delays in Western North Carolina on account of the hurricane damage, but other than that, this is the schedule.

Speaking of the weather, it is largely going to be good today. Zooming in a bit:

Arizona: Phoenix will be 72 and sunny
Arizona: Tucson will be 68 and sunny
Nevada: Las Vegas will be 68 and partly cloudy
Nevada: Reno will be 52 and partly cloudy
Georgia: Atlanta will be 75 and partly cloudy
Georgia: Savannah will be 72 and cloudy
North Carolina: Charlotte will be 73 and cloudy
North Carolina: Raleigh will be 77 and partly cloudy
Michigan: Detroit will be 74 and partly cloudy
Michigan: Grand Rapids will be 67 and rain
Wisconsin: Madison will be 63 and rain
Wisconsin: Milwaukee will be 64 and rain
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia will be 73 and sunny
Pennsylvania: Pittsburgh will be 80 and partly cloudy

And that's the story as Election Day 2024 dawns. Buckle up, because it's going to be a bumpy ride. (Z)

One Last Look: The Election News

We have too much content, and there is too much late news, for us to write up full items. Instead, here are capsules on the big news stories from the final day (or two, or three) of the campaign:

And that's the way it is. (Z)

One Last Look: The Early Voting

We intended to write weekly items on early voting, as soon as the window opened in various states, and Michael McDonald began updating his excellent site.

We didn't do it, however, because we ultimately realized... there's very little way to know what the early voting numbers mean. Early voting was fairly uncommon up through the second Obama election, and largely involved groups who do not particularly reflect the broader electorate (elderly, disabled, residents of a few pretty blue states, etc.). There was a pretty big uptick in early voting in 2016 (approximately 46 million early ballots cast), and then a giant uptick in 2020, thanks to the pandemic (approximately 101 million early votes cast). With an effective sample size of only two elections, and one of those an extremely unusual election, there isn't much basis for assessing what early voting numbers really tell us.

That said, now that early voting is over, and most of the numbers are in, we'll run down the most important trendlines that have presented themselves:

We could write more, but these are certainly the most notable trendlines. And again, given the lack of meaningful context, nobody really knows what it all means. (Z)

Expert Predictions

You can see above what our method says about the outcome in each of the 50 states and in D.C., along with the overall result. However, let's do a quick review of how other psephologists have it on the last day of the cycle. We'll focus on the 10 swingiest states in our tipping point chart. These are listed from most blue to most red:

State Nate Silver 538 270toWin The Hill RealClearPolitics The Economist Sabato Cook
Wisconsin Harris Harris Toss-Up Trump Harris Harris Harris Toss-Up
Michigan Harris Harris Toss-Up Harris Harris Harris Harris Toss-Up
Pennsylvania Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Trump Trump Toss-Up Harris Toss-Up
Nevada Trump Trump Toss-Up Trump Trump Trump Harris Toss-Up
North Carolina Trump Trump Toss-Up Trump Trump Trump Trump Toss-Up
Georgia Trump Trump Toss-Up Toss-Up Trump Trump Trump Toss-Up
Arizona Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Toss-Up
Iowa Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump
Texas Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump
Florida Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump
EV Tally Trump 268, Harris 251 (19) Trump 268, Harris 251 (19) Trump 230, Harris 226 (82) Trump 281, Harris 241 (16) Trump 287, Harris 251 Trump 268, Harris 251 (19) Harris 276, Trump 262 Harris 228, Trump 219 (93)

The number in parentheses in the final row is toss-up EVs, from those sources that did not predict every state.

This certainly looks a lot better for Trump than when we did the same exercise 4 years ago. That said, a lot of the projections are based on tiny margins (for example, the Hill gives Trump the nod in Wisconsin by 0.3%, 48.7% to 48.4%). And nearly all of the projections are based on margins within the standard margin of error (generally 3%-4%).

Meanwhile, there is the very real possibility the polls are out of whack this year. The first six columns are all folks who aggregate polls (as we do). If the input is not good, the output is not going to be good. Put another way, garbage in, garbage out (and despite what Tony Hinchcliffe thinks, it is not going to Puerto Rico). On the other hand, the two gut-feel columns (Cook and Sabato) have Harris ahead. We will soon learn which approach is the better one, it would seem. (Z)

Our Predictions

Speaking of numbers versus gut feel, our number-crunching is at the top of the page for all to see, and has been all cycle long. We are obviously at odds with all the other number-crunching aggregators, since we have Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump. Maybe they are out to lunch. Maybe we are.

What we CAN say is that our method is neither secret nor opaque. We include pollsters who are, in our judgment, good-quality pollsters, and we average their numbers, giving most or all of the weight to the last week's worth of polling. You can tell which pollsters we use, because we list them when we report their results. Despite all of this, we have been getting e-mails like these on a daily basis:

I have been visiting your website for many years and used to consider it pretty enjoyable. But this year you have lost me. Including some of the absurd right-wing polls in your map is just more than I can take. Some of them have even admitted to skewing things towards Trump in ways that make no sense. For example, some of these polls claim Republicans are a far greater percentage of the electorate than they have ever been. Some of them also show Trump getting 15-35% of the black vote. Really? How can you take them seriously at all? In 1964, Goldwater received 7% of the Black vote. Since then, the best they have done is 8%. When Trump is clearly a racist and his opponent is Black those numbers are clearly made up. I live in a very red area and travel frequently in other red states. There is very little enthusiasm anywhere for Trump. The number of signs, flags, etc. are way down and Harris signs are everywhere. When the election is over, I think your current chart will be pretty far from reality.


I've been a visitor to your site for many years. I remember when you announced that you were part of the "Americans Abroad" group. You were very objective at that time. Since then your site has taken a lot of left turns. This may be my final year visiting your site. It all depends how accurate your Electoral College map turns out to be. Good Luck!


You're using junk polls. Your website is now officially full of sh**.

At very least, these (many) correspondents don't seem to be aware that we don't include polls from partisan polling firms (unless they are working with a partisan firm from the other side), and we certainly don't include junk polls. Beyond that, however, we're not sure what these individuals are expecting us to do. If we start picking and choosing polls based on what we think the result should be, or based on which ones agree with our "gut feel," then we're no longer aggregating. We're just doing a version of what Cook and Sabato do, which is a very different thing.

And with things as close as they are, you can make good arguments in either direction. Consider this analysis of North Carolina, by reader H.W. in Cary, NC (who has a Ph.D. in statistics):

Well sports fans, it's game-on in North Carolina, which has evolved into a quintessential purple state. The two sides have contrasting strategies, but both can marshal strong arguments.

Why Trump can win: The main reason is turnout. In the past five presidential races, conservative turnout has exceeded liberal turnout by a wide margin. The sole exception was in 2008, in the wake of a near-miraculous campaign by Barack Obama to register Democratic (especially Black) voters and motivate them to vote. In 2024 early voting, Republicans turned out 63% of their registered voters compared with 59% of Democrats. This edge could continue in the Election Day voting, vindicating Trump's cynical strategy of riling up disaffected White (and some Black) males, especially younger ones, and eking out a close victory.

Why Harris can win: The Republicans' small lead in early-voter turnout could well be a "red mirage" generated by Trump's newfound embrace of early voting. There are too few Republicans left to retain a substantial advantage in the final tally. More significantly, this presidential election is the first one following the Dobbs decision and January 6th, coupled with Trump's increasingly repugnant and misogynistic speech and behavior. So, not surprisingly, there exists a well-documented "gender gap" of 10% or more. That is, Harris may be favored by females 55% to 45% (or more), and Trump favored by males, possibly with an equal margin. However, these would not counterbalance because there are many more female voters; among early voters, 55.6% were women, exceeding their 54% share of all registered voters in the Tar Heel State. Based on these early results, we can calculate that Harris is probably already leading and will be able to hang on in a photo finish.

Predicted final score: Harris 51%, Trump 49%

Thanks, H.W.!

Doing what H.W. did right there is rather harder than just aggregating, because it is very hard to filter out biases, wishful thinking, etc. This said, neither one of us has particular confidence in the polls this year, which is why we commenced the series on issues/concerns with polling. And, truth be told, we would have written about five more items in that series, but we ran out of time. There are a lot of facts on the ground that are very difficult to reconcile with the polling. For example, what about Kamala Harris' much stronger ground game? What about Harris' (apparent) much greater enthusiasm, as indicated by raising over $1 billion, in particular? Are we really to believe that substantial numbers of Black and brown men moved in Trump's direction, after having voted for two Democrats (one of them a woman) in the past two cycles? How could Harris be doing substantially worse than Joe Biden, given the tail winds provided by the abortion issue?

For better or worse, this item is our fairly rare opportunity to reveal what our guts are telling us, as opposed to relying on what the polls are saying. And so, here goes:

The Presidency Congress

Note that we wrote these unaware of what the other had written. That they are remarkably similar... well, you know what they say about "great minds." Anyhow, that's how we have it. Now on to the readers... (Z)

Reader Predictions

We had a staggering 11,000+ responses to our survey. We don't want to drown people in information, so we'll do demographics later this week, or possibly next week. For now, it's just what the readers have to say about the election. This may actually be the single best predictive exercise you will find anywhere, because there is much value in "the wisdom of the crowd." And while our readership certainly skews Democratic and liberal, it also skews educated and well-informed, and has a demonstrated history of being properly skeptical (or, in some cases, pessimistic).

To start, here's how the readers have the presidential race:

Question Harris Win Trump Win
Presidency, What I Think 71.4% 8.5%
Presidency, What I Want 96.2% 2.4%
Arizona 54.1% 31.2%
Georgia 35% 50%
Michigan 88.5% 3.9%
Nevada 54.9% 24%
North Carolina 40.3% 42.7%
Pennsylvania 81.1% 10.7%
Wisconsin 86.5% 9.1%

The readers' choices for the swing states imply an EV total of 287 for Kamala Harris, 251 for Trump. The readers' average projection for Harris' EV total was 289.31. Very consistent.

Now on to the readers' predictions for the Senate.

State Democrat/Ind. Win Republican Win
Arizona 88.8% 9.5%
Florida 10.4% 71.2%
Maryland 76.1% 5.7%
Michigan 82.6% 1.3%
Montana 24.9% 49%
Nebraska 36% 31.5%
Nevada 72.6% 4%
Ohio 74% 8%
Pennsylvania 82.7% 2.1%
Texas 26% 56.6%
Wisconsin 85.2% 1.4%

The readers' choices for the Senate races imply 50 Republicans in the next Senate, with the GOP picking up West Virginia and Montana but losing Nebraska. The readers' average projection for Republican seats in the Senate was 50.21. Again, very consistent.

And how about some reader comments? Because we neglected to ask for initials and cities until over 3,000 people had responded, we're just going to forego those entirely (so that we don't effectively throw out thousands of comments):

Harris Has This Thing?

Voting against Trump more than for Harris. Just say no to bullies.

Two predictions: (1) The breadth and depth of support for Harris among women will be greater than polling indicates; and (2) late undeciding voters break for Harris in large numbers, likely due to Trump's erratic behavior in the final weeks.

Three words: Women, women, women.

While taking a walk, I had forgotten that I was wearing a Harris For President t-shirt when I noticed a young, white guy (probably late-20's/early 30's) looking at me. He asked me if I was for illegal immigration and more crime, to which I responded that in fact, violent crime rates have declined. To which his reasoned, informed response was, "No they haven't." I made the tactical error of bringing up women's health issues, including how women had lost their fertility (and some their lives) due to the abortion bans. He practically spat out his question: "Are you a feminist? Everything you've said is about women." I was frankly so taken aback at his response, that it was all I could do to look at him, puzzled, and ask: "Do you have any women in your life?" Suffice to say, he did not like that question, so while I calmly said I was happy to have a civilized conversation with him, he told me he did not want to talk to me and waved goodbye and kept repeating, "Bye, have a nice day" in a tone that was not, shall we say, dripping with sincerity. Only a few minutes later, a young African-American man, around the same age as the white guy, was crossing the street towards me with a smile on his face. I smiled back. He said, "I like your t-shirt." We had a lovely chat, and parted ways, hoping that sanity and competence will win out this election, and not dishonesty, divisiveness, fear, and hate.

Harris will overperform her polls by about 3-4 points. 303 EVs (or maybe more). Pollsters are herding. Just watch.

I have voted in 10 presidential elections and this is the first time I have voted for a Democrat. I think the under-counted Harris vote (like mine) will turn out to be consequential. I also think the near-term future of non-MAGA conservatism depends on it.

Trump has been annoying me since I was 8 years old. I can't wait for him to be gone.

Trump Has This Thing?

I am terrified that somehow the Supreme Court will throw the election to Trump.

I suspect the models overly favor Trump, but too many voters out there just can't accept a woman as president. That is why I think Trump will win, because there just aren't enough shy Harris voters.

Removing Joe Biden will prove to have been a mistake. The Democrats are too weak in how they engage with the press, and they are treated unfairly because of it. Classism within their own party is costing them the working class. Modern day progressivism, ironically, is pushing the working class away from the Democrats.

The Democrats will only have themselves to blame for losing this election and I will point to two specific and obvious actions: (1) By Joe Biden not dropping out a year ago, we didn't have a chance to have an open primary that could have produced a ticket like Whitmer-Shapiro. At the very least they hold the blue wall and win the election. Harris would not even have finished in fifth place in an open primary; (2) When it took until July for Biden to drop out and there was no other choice but to go with Harris, we botched the VP selection. By not going with Shapiro we left PA vulnerable. My prediction is Harris gets 251 EV's and losing Pennsylvania will be the difference. And now my 8-year-old daughter will enter her teenage years with less freedoms than both of my grandmothers had at her age. I hope I'm wrong.

Your site is so horribly slanted left it's completely unreliable and you should either get on the Trump Train or leave America.

State-Level Predictions

The Iowa poll from Ann Seltzer is a really interesting last-minute data point, but my take is that Donald Trump's saber rattling around tariffs and restarting trade wars has farmers and rural voters in the breadbasket really spooked. They remember the hard times in soy markets, particularly the last time Trump pushed tariffs on commodities. It's not Trump's age, racism or general unfitness for office that is going to push away his base of conservatives—it's mostly policies that affect THEM directly (i.e., the "he's not hurting the people he is supposed to be hurting" crowd).

It all comes down to Pennsylvania and Trump ekes it out. The "Should've Picked Shapiro" screams will be loud and endless.

Our 22-year-old son works for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, and I've seen firsthand the intense ground efforts they're putting in. The energy is incredible, with busloads of people arriving from other states to support. The group is predominantly young, and they're executing the plan with precision. If the Pennsylvania Democrats don't succeed, it won't be for lack of effort.

I live in Nevada... last election there were Trump caravans and pickups with Trump flags everywhere. Thus far, no caravans and I've only seen one pickup with a Trump flag. There's also no one selling Trump merch where they used to.

I drove from Northern California to Arizona to help get out the vote for Democrats. When I told people what I was doing, they all said the same thing: Don't get shot. Sad.

I promise/guarantee you, Kamala will win Georgia, and lose North Carolina. The closeness of Flori-duh will be shocking. That is my area. This makes me question all the polls, they are off. Younger people don't have landlines and don't answer their phones; I don't know how you get accurate polling anymore.

Other Comments

Ireland doesn't have room for all of us, so we need to stand firm and NEVER AGAIN let the Republicans gain control of anything.

The rule of thumb is a good GOTV is worth 1 to 3 points. Abortion should be worth 2-5 pts. Legalized Jane should be worth 2-5 pts, Liz Cheney folks voting for Harris should be worth 2-5 pts. Among other things I do not understand is the polls having it 50/50. To counter all these pluses it means the racism and anti-female slant of the electorate is 10 pts. plus. If such is true, I am very disappointed in my fellow Americans.

This election may sink the credibility of polls for good.

You have mentioned it before but I think it is worth mentioning again. The gender divide is having very real consequences this election while most attention is given to young women moving to Democrats, a great many men are moving to Republicans including young men. This isn't going to just have political effects but also social as it builds a wall between the sexes. It will deepen as women only fields and men only fields become the norm. I am a local Democrat and have been the only man in a room of 30 Democrats. Yes women being excited is amazing for Democrats but it isn't translating to young men.

My daughter is 27 and I can't help but see every Trump voter as a threat to her future.

I hope the scapegoating of trans persons goes down in flames this year. (Please!)

Why is every presidential election these days more important than the last? Can't we have a low-key race for once?

Thanks to everyone who participated! (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

Emerson clearly wanted to dominate "the last day of polling" and so released a boatload of polls yesterday. They've had a discernible Republican lean all cycle, so this is going to push most polling averages in Donald Trump's direction by a bit. (Z)

State Kamala Harris Donald Trump Start End Pollster
Arizona 49% 51% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
California 64% 32% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Colorado 55% 41% Oct 18 Oct 30 YouGov
Florida 44% 51% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Georgia 49% 50% Oct 28 Oct 31 East Carolina U.
Georgia 49% 50% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
Michigan 49% 47% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Michigan 49% 47% Oct 25 Nov 02 Florida Atlantic U.
Michigan 51% 49% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
Minnesota 51% 44% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Missouri 39% 54% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
North Carolina 48% 50% Oct 24 Oct 29 East Carolina U.
North Carolina 49% 50% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
New Hampshire 62% 34% Nov 01 Nov 03 Dartmouth Poll
New Jersey 57% 40% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Nevada 49% 49% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
New York 57% 41% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Ohio 44% 55% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
Pennsylvania 48% 47% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Pennsylvania 49% 47% Oct 25 Nov 02 Florida Atlantic U.
Pennsylvania 49% 50% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
Virginia 51% 45% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Washington 54% 39% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Wisconsin 49% 46% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Wisconsin 49% 48% Oct 25 Nov 02 Florida Atlantic U.
Wisconsin 50% 50% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

Overall, a good bunch of polls for the blue team, though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will be sweating bullets as he watches the returns from Ohio today. (Z)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Arizona Ruben Gallego 50% Kari Lake 45% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
California Adam Schiff 60% Steve Garvey 37% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Florida Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 43% Rick Scott* 50% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Michigan Elissa Slotkin 47% Mike Rogers 43% Oct 25 Nov 02 Florida Atlantic U.
Michigan Elissa Slotkin 49% Mike Rogers 45% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
Michigan Elissa Slotkin 50% Mike Rogers 44% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar* 55% Royce White 38% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Missouri Lucas Kunce 43% Josh Hawley* 54% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
New Jersey Andy Kim 56% Curtis Bashaw 38% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Nevada Jacky Rosen* 50% Sam Brown 44% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
New York Kirsten Gillibrand* 61% Mike Sapraicone 33% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Ohio Sherrod Brown* 48% Bernie Moreno 52% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 47% David McCormick 47% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 48% David McCormick 46% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 49% David McCormick 44% Oct 25 Nov 02 Florida Atlantic U.
Virginia Tim Kaine* 53% Hung Cao 41% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Washington Maria Cantwell* 58% Raul Garcia 38% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 47% Eric Hovde 45% Oct 25 Nov 02 Florida Atlantic U.
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 48% Eric Hovde 47% Nov 02 Nov 03 Research Co.
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 51% Eric Hovde 45% Oct 30 Nov 02 Emerson Coll.

* Denotes incumbent


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