The Commedia dell'Budget May Be Headed toward Its Denouement

Kabuki theater is very formulaic, and so is pro wrestling (with its kayfabe), and so is Baroque opera. Another cultural artifact in that category is commedia dell'arte, which comes to us from Renaissance Italy. It even has the benefit of having well-established, named character types. (Z) can't believe that he didn't think of it, since he directed a play based on commedia when he was a senior in high school.

For example, one of the stock commedia characters is Tartaglia, the bumbling politician. In a completely unrelated note, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) announced his "Plan B" for keeping the government open, and it's... almost exactly what the Democrats have been suggesting all along. In short, it would keep the government funded through December 20, kicking the can to "right before Christmas." The bill Tartag... er, Johnson will bring to the floor will have no SAVE Act, no money for the VA, and no money for nuclear subs, all of which were in the bill that already failed. It will, however, have $231 million to beef up Secret Service protection for the presidential candidates, as well as $10 billion in additional funding for FEMA.

Another stock commedia character is Scaramuccia, the loudmouth with villainous traits. In a completely unrelated note, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is hopping mad about Johnson's new plan. She appeared on Steve Bannon's podcast, which is being hosted by former representative Dave Brat while Bannon is in the Big House, and declared that Johnson has "lost the respect" of House Republicans. We suspect that Scara... er, Greene really means he's "lost the respect" of the Freedom Caucus, which shares Greene's fury that Johnson is doing an end run around them.

At this point, Johnson has three options for getting the bill through the House. The first would require a procedural vote to bring the bill to the floor. Since the Democrats have been singing the praises of Johnson's bill (it's basically their bill, after all), they will certainly back the bill if it makes it to the floor. The problem here is that the procedural vote has to come first, and those are almost always a party-line matter. Point is, Johnson probably won't have any Democratic votes for step one, even if he'll have plenty of them for step two. And because of the cranky FCers, he probably can't scrape together the necessary number of Republican votes for step one.

The second option is to persuade Democrats to abandon normal practice and to support the procedural vote. The problem here is that they won't be excited to do that, since "I voted to support the Speaker" is a different matter, politically, than "I voted to support the legislation." It could come back to haunt some of them in their primaries in 2026, or maybe even in the general election in 2024.

The third option is a suspension of the rules of normal order. In that case, no procedural vote would be needed, but then the actual legislation would require a two-thirds majority to pass. That would mean most or all of the Democrats, plus 80 or so Republicans. This is the likeliest option, and the one that has been used in the last few budget "crises."

In any case, in entirely predictable fashion, it appears that Congress is going to figure this out in the nick of time to avoid a shutdown. And assuming they do, it will be a big poke in the eye for Donald Trump. Not only is he not going to get the SAVE Act, but it will also become clear that, when push comes to shove, he is not able to order the House Republican Conference to do his bidding. (Z)

The Case of the Stolen Electoral Vote Appears to Be Resolved

The Republicans really put on the full-court press to try to get the unicameral Nebraska legislature to make the state's EVs winner-take-all, thus turning four certain EVs for the GOP into five certain EVs. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) headed to the Cornhusker State to do some arm-twisting, and Donald Trump even got involved (admittedly, via Zoom). But, as of yesterday, the effort appears to be dead on the vine (well, dead on the cornstalk).

The central figure here is State Sen. Mike McDonnell. He used to be a Democrat, but now he's a Republican. Although, given that the Nebraska legislature is nonpartisan, it probably should be that he used to be nonpartisan, but now he's nonpartisan. In any event, it would require 33 votes to change the rules. That means every one of the 33 "nonpartisan" Republicans in the legislature would have to agree, because every one of the 16 "nonpartisan" Democrats opposes the change. McDonnell came out yesterday and said he would not vote with his fellow "nonpartisan" Republicans. That means 32 votes, at most (and two other "nonpartisan" Republicans are wavering), and 32 isn't enough.

Why did McDonnell decide to buck his "non" party? Well, he explained his official reason like this: "After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change." What he forgot to mention is that he's planning to run for mayor of Omaha, which is pretty blue, and is smack-dab in the middle of NE-02. That is the district whose EV would likely end up being transferred from Kamala Harris to Trump. McDonnell's future political ambitions surely played some role in his decision.

We are hardly dialed in to the nuances and subtleties of Nebraska politics, but Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) is, and she said yesterday that "It's over." We see no reason not to believe her. Sorry, Lindsey. (Z)

What's That You Say, Mr. Robinson?

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's (R-NC) hopes of being promoted to governor, which weren't great even before he got outed on a porn site as a "Black Nazi" who approves of slavery and thinks Martin Luther King Jr. was a "coon," are getting fainter by the day. Yesterday was chock full of bad news for him.

To wit, much of his senior campaign staff resigned en masse yesterday morning. Then, the Republican Governors Association announced they would be making no further ad buys on his behalf, which is not the usual procedure in a purple state. Then, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced he was disembarking from the SS Nude Africa (in honor of Robinson's favorite XXX site), and would not be voting for the Lieutenant Governor. As they say, when you've lost Thom Tillis, you've lost America.

Robinson, for his part, is trying to fight back... sorta? He has loudly denied that the problematic porn postings (PPPs?) were his doing. A group of pro-Robinson tech experts offered to help him prove that the messages weren't his, and he declined. Hmmmmm, wonder why. He did threaten to sue CNN over the report that launched this latest round of controversy. Sounds like someone who's innocent, right?

There's little doubt that the gubernatorial race is over; the much more momentous question is whether Robinson will drag down the presidential ticket, and potentially cost Donald Trump the state's 16 EVs. If so, that would be dangerously close to unsurvivable for the former president, even if he took Pennsylvania. To put a finer point on it, if you take the Biden states, and give Trump Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and then give Kamala Harris North Carolina, then Harris wins the election with 278 EVs. So, it's no surprise that Trump is now pretending that he does not know Mark Robinson and never heard of Mark Robinson.

The Harris campaign's strategy, which they shared in detail with CNN, is to ignore the stuff about Nazis and MLK Jr. and slavery. Team Harris thinks Robinson is already toxic, and will remain so for the balance of the campaign, without any input from them. Their task will be to join Robinson and Trump as firmly at the hip as is possible. So, if you live in or near the Tar Heel State, get ready for a barrage of commercials featuring video of all the times Trump and Robinson appeared together, and all the times Trump has said complimentary things about Robinson. The Trump-Robinson connection will also be a major theme of Democratic campaign events in the state. We will be very interested to see what happens with polling in the state; at the moment, the FiveThirtyEight polling average of North Carolina has Trump up 0.5%. (Z)

Everyone Loves Crypto...

Yesterday, we had an item about crypto, and how involvement with that "currency" is allowing many American males to feel like "real men." It's a strange dynamic, but that's where we are. We guess it's not that much different from believing that smoking Marlboros or driving a Chevy truck makes you a real man.

In any case, now that Donald Trump has embraced crypto as a way of making nice with young, male voters, Kamala Harris has decided to do the same. During a campaign appearance on Wall Street, she raised $27 million for her campaign, and also announced that she wants to "encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting investors and consumers." Not only will this theoretically please some subset of young, male voters, it will also gladden the hearts of a certain kind of deep-pocketed Tech Bro.

When we first heard about cryptocurrency, several years ago, we smelled a scam. Nothing we have seen or heard since then has caused us to revisit that opinion. That said, if it's going to be a thing, then it really needs to be regulated. No more of this business where one guy forgets one password, and all of a sudden $100 million is lost forever. It would appear that both candidates are now committed to promoting crypto, while only one of them is interested in also regulating it. So, even after they have both had a come-to-Jesus moment this week (one that is not necessarily all that believable), there is still some daylight between them on this issue. (Z)

...And Everyone Hates Project 2025

Hoo boy! If you had any questions as to why Donald Trump is running away from Project 2025 as fast as he can, while Harris is trying to make the platform stick to him like white on rice, the newest Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News poll should give you your answers. What percentage of respondents disapprove of the plan? How about 57%? And what percentage doesn't have an opinion? That would be 39%. That means that if you aren't too busy celebrating Nat'ion-(al), "Punc"tuat-ion? D*a*y! today, and you're still sober enough to do a little math, the approval for Project 2025 is... 4%. Oof.

There's no doubt that Project 2025 is fringy, but it's not THAT fringy. Surely more than 4% of the population believes in much of this whackadoodle stuff. That means that the Project 2025 folks have not done much of a job of communicating their ideas to the base. It does not help that the candidate is trying to pretend that he knows nothing about Project 2025, but there are still ways to get the word out, like Breitbart and Newsmax.

Just in case we needed a reminder as to how bad the Project 2025 folks are when it comes to interfacing with the general public, key contributor John McEntee has a TikTok channel he uses to promote his MAGA-only dating app. And the channel is almost entirely made up of videos where he sits at a diner and eats junky food and makes "clever" observations with a racist/sexist/phobic tinge. "I can't tell; is Ella Emhoff a boy or a girl?" kind of stuff.

In last week's video, Mr. Out of Touch inquired: "Can someone track down the women Kamala Harris says are bleeding out in parking lots because Roe v. Wade was overturned?" He added: "Don't hold your breath." As it turns out, there was no problem with holding one's breath, because the responses began to roll in almost immediately. Over 11,000 comments, nearly all of them from women who were negatively impacted, in one way or another, by the Dobbs decision. Oops.

In any case, between Mark Robinson (see above), Project 2025, the events of 1/6, his increasingly overt antisemitism, his court cases, and a long list of other demerits, the Harris campaign has plenty of radioactive stuff to tar Donald Trump with. The question is how effectively they are able to do it, particularly given how much "Trump armor" most voters have developed. (Z)

The Joke's On You, Part I: The Al Smith Dinner

In 1960, John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon both appeared at the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner, and exchanged some good-natured ribbing of one another. That set a custom, and in most presidential election cycles since then, the nominees of the two major parties have attended the white-tie event. The exchange of good-natured banter is considered a testament to the notion that while there are partisan differences, everyone's on the same team, and civility is a virtue. Oh, and the evening raises money for Catholic charities.

This year, the organizers (the archdiocese of New York) and the emcee (comedian Jim Gaffigan, whose devotion to his Catholic religion is well known) assumed that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would be attending, and did a fair amount of promotion based on that assumption. Maybe they should have checked with the candidates, however, because Harris announced yesterday that she won't be there, as she'll be busy campaigning in battleground states. So, it's just going to be Trump.

Why did Harris take a pass? She isn't saying publicly, but the main reason, of course, is Trump. In 2020, because of the pandemic, the two presidential candidates did appear, but it was via Zoom, so the normal joshing was not possible, even if the candidates had been so inclined. However, in 2016, Trump and Hillary Clinton were both there in person. And beyond the fact that Trump has no real sense of humor, and no ability to deliver jokes (much less good-natured jokes), he also doesn't believe that everyone is on the same team, nor does he believe in civility. So, instead, he used the opportunity to tear into Clinton, and to claim that she hates Catholics. There were many boos.

Do you have any doubt that, had Harris attended, there would have been more of the same? If you do have any doubts, then take note that when Trump announced he would be there (after Harris had declined), he sent out this message on his $12.15-per-share-and-maybe-soon-below-$10.00 boutique social media platform:

It will be an honor to attend the SOLD OUT 79th ANNUAL AL SMITH DINNER on October 17th in New York. It will be great to see so many wonderful people there, including Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan. We know the Spirit of Al Smith, the first Catholic Nominee of a Major Party, and John F. Kennedy, the FIRST Catholic President, will be in the room with us that night. It was a virtual event in 2020, and I was delighted to speak to our Catholic friends that day and, of course, it was a HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL evening in 2016 when we were there in person with Crooked Hillary Clinton. The reviews of my remarks were TREMENDOUS. It's sad, but not surprising, that Kamala has decided not to attend. I don't know what she has against our Catholic friends, but it must be a lot, because she certainly hasn't been very nice to them, in fact, Catholics are literally being persecuted by this Administration. Any Catholic that votes for Comrade Kamala Harris should have their head examined...

Not only would Trump have attacked Harris if she had attended, he will undoubtedly attack her in absentia. It's his usual script when addressing religious groups: Any member of [RELIGION X] who votes for Harris is not a real member of [RELIGION X]. It's particularly rich, of course, when he claims that an administration headed by a Catholic is... persecuting Catholics.

While Trump was/is the main problem, we suspect Harris' decision was also shaped by the behavior of the archdiocese. Although the event is ostensibly apolitical (in the sense of there being no advocacy for specific parties or political stances), the candidate appearances were canceled once since 1960. The archdiocese did not approve of Bill Clinton's actions regarding abortion access, and so in 1996, both he and Bob Dole were dis-invited. And the person currently overseeing the dinner, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, is outspokenly anti-Democratic, having written op-eds like this one, with the headline "The Democrats Abandon Catholics" and the subhead "If you value religious education or life's sanctity, you're not welcome in the party." If we were Kamala Harris, we would also be uninterested in going into the lion's den, especially since the organizers showed in 2016 that they are unable or unwilling to maintain decorum.

The right-wing media has engaged in much gnashing of teeth and rending of garments over Harris' non-attendance. For example, this op-ed from the always vapid Piers Morgan accuses the Democrat of "cowardly ducking" the dinner. We tend to doubt that these attacks will pierce Harris' armor any more than the many other lines of attack that right-wingers have tried against her. "She skipped a chichi dinner with a bunch of other cultural elites!" seems kind of inside baseball to us. In fact, if the dinner is going to rebound on anyone, it could well be Trump. The emcee is part of the banter, too, and Gaffigan has already made clear that he's going to roast The Donald, even if Harris isn't there. Trump hates, hates, hates that, and will struggle to maintain his composure. It is possible that one or two moments could go viral, much as when Barack Obama roasted Trump at the White House Correspondents Dinner back in 2011. On that occasion, after much glowering, followed by fleeing the room, Trump fought back by... running for president. This time, Trump is already running for president, so that particular revenge option is not on the table. (Z)

The Joke's On You, Part II: Live (Again) from New York

Speaking of viral moments, this Saturday, around 11:35 p.m. ET, Saturday Night Live will return for its 50th season. This is a little later than usual for the show's season premiere. That is because they are going to deliver an episode every weekend save one between now and Election Day.

Beyond the fact that 50 is a pretty momentous number, it's widely believed that this will be the last rodeo for executive producer Lorne Michaels, who created the show and has overseen it for 45 of its 50 years (all but seasons 6-10). These things being the case, they are pulling out all the stops. Past cast members, and well-known friends of the show (e.g., Steve Martin) will be making frequent cameos. They've loaded up on rockstar hosts for the five shows from this weekend through the election: actor Jean Smart, comedian Nate Bargatze, musician Ariana Grande, actor Michael Keaton and comedian John Mulaney. Those names may not mean something to all readers, but for folks dialed into pop culture, and in particular for fans of the show, that list is golden.

What is of interest to us, of course, are the political sketches. It is fair to expect there will be at least one "presidential" sketch in each of the five episodes leading up to the election. It's already been announced that Maya Rudolph will return to play Kamala Harris. Her portrayal is very good, and very funny, but is not particularly biting. Also, Michaels said that current cast member James Austin Johnson will continue to play Trump. Johnson's portrayal is nowhere near as vicious as that of Alec Baldwin, who preceded Johnson in the role. It is, however, uncannily accurate. Thus far, the identity of the performers who will play Tim Walz and J.D. Vance has not been made public.

More specifically, our interest is whether the show might have some impact on the election. If so, it would not be unprecedented. Chevy Chase's Gerald Ford absolutely hurt the then-president, especially when Ford made the error of allowing his press secretary, Ron Nessen, to appear on the show. It made it seem as if Ford didn't understand he was being made the butt of jokes. More recently, Tina Fey's portrayal of Sarah Palin was devastating, and did much to help cement the then-VP candidate's reputation for being all hat, no cattle. To this day, many people believe that it was Palin who said "I can see Russia from my house," when it was actually Fey-as-Palin.

Given that the Rudolph-Harris portrayal is a known commodity, we doubt it will do any harm to the candidate. It is also likely, based on past precedent, that the Walz portrayal will only show up once or twice in the next five weeks, and will be fairly brief and probably not too rough, as he's a hard guy to be "mean" with. We're thinking something along the lines of Jason Sudeikis' portrayal of Joe Biden when Biden was VP, or maybe Phil Hartman's take on Bill Clinton, which was pretty affectionate.

On the other side of the aisle, it is true that Johnson's portrayal of Trump is also a known commodity. However, Michaels has said that the new season will see Johnson "reinvent" his take, explaining that viewers will see a "diminished" Trump. We take that to mean that it's gonna be word-salad time. Meanwhile, J.D. Vance bears more than a passing resemblance to Palin as a VP candidate, and could well be in for a beating (maybe they'll bring back Fey to play him, which would be a repeat of a gag the show used in 2017, having Melissa McCarthy play Sean Spicer, and which would make Trump's head explode). The bottom line is that our guess—based considerably more on our familiarity with the show, as opposed to our knowledge of politics—is that if SNL 50 ends up moving the needle, it will be to the detriment of the Republican ticket. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

Siena continues to have a very Trumpy lean this cycle. (Z)

State	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	45%	50%	Sep 17	Sep 21	Siena Coll.
Connecticut	53%	37%	Sep 12	Sep 18	MassINC
Georgia	45%	49%	Sep 17	Sep 21	Siena Coll.
Massachusetts	63%	35%	Sep 12	Sep 18	MassINC
Minnesota	48%	43%	Sep 16	Sep 18	Mason Dixon
North Carolina	47%	49%	Sep 17	Sep 21	Siena Coll.
Rhode Island	52%	40%	Sep 12	Sep 18	MassINC
Texas	44%	50%	Sep 16	Sep 18	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
Wisconsin	53%	46%	Sep 12	Sep 18	MassINC

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

There is much here to please Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). The Arizona and Wisconsin seats are looking safe, and it's yet another Texas poll suggesting Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) might actually have a shot. If Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) does somehow go down, there will be much dancing in the streets, including among some Republicans. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	Ruben Gallego	49%	Kari Lake	43%	Sep 17	Sep 21	Siena Coll.
Connecticut	Chris Murphy*	51%	Matt Corey	35%	Sep 12	Sep 18	MassINC
Massachusetts	Elizabeth Warren*	56%	John Deaton	35%	Sep 12	Sep 18	MassINC
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar*	51%	Royce White	40%	Sep 16	Sep 18	Mason Dixon
New Mexico	Martin Heinrich*	47%	Nella Domenici	34%	Sep 12	Sep 18	SurveyUSA
Texas	Colin Allred	45%	Ted Cruz*	48%	Sep 13	Sep 18	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin*	52%	Eric Hovde	44%	Sep 12	Sep 18	MassINC

* Denotes incumbent

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