In Congress, Part I: Once Again, Time for Senate Democrats to Man (and Woman) Up

Once again, the nation is on the brink of a funding crisis. And once again, it looks like it will be up to Senate Democrats to be the adults in the room, and to do what it takes to dodge a bullet.

On Wednesday, as expected, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) brought a stop-gap funding bill up for a vote. And, as expected, it failed to pass. The vote was 202 to 220, mostly along party lines, but with 14 Republicans voting "nay," 2 Republicans voting "present," and 3 Democrats voting "yea." The issue, for those Republicans who oppose, is that they want to slash spending big-time. The issue, for those (many) Democrats who oppose, is that they don't want to vote for verbiage (the SAVE Act, which was included with the Johnson bill) that implies the U.S. has a serious problem (or any problem) with undocumented immigrants voting.

Since the Speaker of the House has once again failed to, well, get his House in order, it is now up to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to try to clean up the mess. He's begun the process of passing a bill that would fund the government at current levels for another 3 months. That would, in effect, kick the can to the start of the next president's term, giving President Harris or President Trump a clean slate to work with.

Johnson has not yet publicly said what his "Plan B" is, merely that he has one. Privately, according to Axios, he has said that he's amenable to the 3-month plan. Maybe he thinks that's the only compromise that can get through both chambers and get a presidential signature. Or maybe he thinks he won't be speaker in 3 months, making this someone else's problem.

The biggest fly in the ointment, as per usual, is Donald Trump. Trump believes, almost certainly wrongly, that a government shutdown would benefit him and the Republican Party. Actually, he might not really think that; he just really, really, really wants the SAVE Act be passed into law, so that he has additional ammunition when he starts kvetching about election fraud and how victory was/will be stolen from him. Whatever his exact thinking is, he has instructed his loyalists in the House to kill a clean stop-gap spending bill. Whether he has that kind of pull, just weeks before an election, remains to be seen. That said, he singlehandedly killed the border bill, so it's certainly possible. (Z)

In Congress, Part II: The (New Jersey) Eagle Has Landed

It takes a while to replace a deceased member of Congress, since there has to be some version of a primary, and some version of a general election. This is assuming there is any replacement at all; many states allow a seat to remain vacant if the death happens too close to a regularly scheduled election.

In the case of Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-NJ), who died in April, there was indeed time for a special election. And given that his now-former district, NJ-10, is D+30, there was absolutely no question he'd be replaced by another Democrat. Since July 16, we've even known which Democrat it would be: LaMonica McIver, president of the Newark Municipal Council since 2022, and member of the Council since 2018.

Since we are on the subject of Congress anyhow (see above), we will pass along that the special election was finally held this week, and McIver won in a walk, taking 81.2% of the vote, as compared to 15.8% for Republican Carmen Bucco. So, McIver will take her seat next week, giving Mike Johnson even less wiggle room than he had this week. And since McIver is not even 40 yet, she is in position to have a nice, long career in the House, if that's what she wants. Eventually, she might consider a U.S. Senate run, but one New Jersey seat is currently occupied by the 55-year-old Cory Booker (D), and the other is about to be occupied by the 42-year-old Andy Kim (D). Given how long Senate careers tend to last, McIver may need to make her Senate plans for, oh, the late 2040s. (Z)

More Scandal in North Carolina: CNN Further Pulls back the Curtain on Robinson's Porn Habit(s)

We are not certain this is the big news that everyone else seems to think it is. First of all, broadly speaking, everyone knows that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC), who is trying for a promotion to governor right now, is crazypants and has said all kinds of impolitic things over the years. Second, there's already been extensive coverage of his rather massive appetite for pornographic material, substantial enough that the staff at his local porn shop knew him by name, and would often enjoy pizzas that he brought for them.

In any event, yesterday CNN published what they described as a "bombshell report," compiled by looking back through many years' worth of messages that Robinson posted to adult sites. Among the revelations:

• Robinson called himself a "Black Nazi" and said he prefers Adolf Hitler to Barack Obama.
• He wrote that he is a "perv" who likes transgender porn.
• He bragged about peeping on women in public showers when he was 14.
• He declared that Martin Luther King Jr. was a "commie bastard."
• Robinson, married for 34 years, had an account on the site Ashley Madison, which was supposed to allow married men to find "something on the side," but turned out to be a massive scam with virtually no real female users.

Robinson canceled his various campaign events yesterday, and did a bunch of media hits where he denied everything.

Republicans, both in North Carolina, and nationwide, have been pressuring Robinson to drop out for months because of all of his baggage. Yesterday's news caused them to turn up the pressure even more. It should not surprise you, however, that Robinson decreed that he's not going anywhere.

There are at least two things, beyond Robinson's personality/stubbornness, that make it near-impossible that Republicans will be able to eject him from the race. The first of those is that there is one Republican who is still all-in on the Lieutenant Governor. That would be Donald Trump, who has said that Robinson is a "better version" of Martin Luther King Jr. You know, some of that famously profound Trumpian historical analysis. Anyhow, the former president does not like to admit when he's wrong, and does not like to change course. And in today's GOP, if you have Trump on your side, that's all you really need.

The second issue, for those who would jettison Robinson, is that the ballot deadline arrived yesterday. Under the terms of North Carolina law, at least in theory, his name must now appear. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has demonstrated that these "ironclad" laws are actually somewhat flexible, so we suppose it's possible Robinson could be replaced, if he files some sort of lawsuit. But probably not, particularly if he holds on for even just a few more days.

The Republicans don't particularly care about the governor's race, which is almost certainly lost. AG Josh Stein (D) has led in every poll taken in the last 2 months (nearly two dozen of them), and his smallest lead was +4. Usually, he's in, or close to, double-digits. In the four most recent polls, for example, he was +9, +8, +13 and +8.

The concern here is that Robinson could drag down the entire Republican ticket, very possibly moving the state from the Republican column to the Democratic one in the presidential contest. We tend to doubt that he's going to increase Democratic turnout; Democratic voters already knew he was crazypants, and most of them probably aren't that offended by someone looking at trans porn, etc. But if there are Trump-skeptical Republicans who don't feel they have anything important to vote for, with a radioactive sure-fire loser running for governor and no U.S. Senate race? Some of them might stay home, we suppose. The Tar Heel State was decided by about 65,000 votes in 2020, so even a small shift could make a difference. (Z)

TrumpWatch 2024: Was There a Full Moon This Week, Perhaps?

As long as we are on the crazypants train (that WAS the name of the Ozzy Osbourne song, right?), allow us to point out ten of the wackiest and most unhinged things Donald Trump said this week:

• He called for the broadcast license of ABC to be revoked over their handling of the debate. A debate that, you will recall, Trump claims he won.
  
  
• Also, as regards winning the debate, Trump went on Fox's Gutfeld and bragged that the audience at the debate went "crazy" for him. There was no audience, of course.
  
  
• During a campaign stop in Michigan, he announced his plan for reducing food prices: "We gotta work with our farmers. Our farmers are being decimated right now. They're being absolutely, absolutely decimated. And you know, one of the reasons is we allow a lot of farm product into our country. We're gonna have to be a little bit like other countries. We're not gonna allow so much come—we're gonna let our farmers go to work." Needless to say, reducing the amount of food imported into the country would increase prices, not bring them down.
  
  
• Yesterday, Trump declared that if he loses the election, "the Jewish people would have a lot to do with the loss." Historically, it rarely turns out well when leaders with demagogic tendencies start gesticulating and vaguely blaming "the Jews" for their problems.
  
  
• Trump also said: "Israel, I believe, has to defeat [Kamala Harris]." Um, whatever that means.
  
  
• He said he plans to visit Springfield, OH, even though the Republican mayor of that town begged Trump to stay away. Trump also warned that he's taking his life into his own hands, and that he "might not make it out alive." Perhaps we misunderstood, but we thought the claim was that cats and dogs were being eaten. Is Trump worried he'll be mistaken for a cat?
  
  
• Earlier this week, it was revealed that Iran sent purloined GOP e-mails to the Biden/Harris campaign, and the blue team turned them over to the FBI and then deleted them. Trump transmuted that into this:

  WOW, JUST OUT! THE FBI CAUGHT IRAN SPYING ON MY CAMPAIGN, AND GIVING ALL OF THE INFORMATION TO THE KAMALA HARRIS CAMPAIGN. THEREFORE SHE AND HER CAMPAIGN WERE ILLEGALLY SPYING ON ME. TO BE KNOWN AS THE IRAN, IRAN, IRAN CASE! WILL KAMALA RESIGN IN DISGRACE FROM POLITICS? WILL THE COMMUNIST LEFT PICK A NEW CANDIDATE TO REPLACE HER?

  The first dozen or so words of that are accurate. The remainder are a fantasy.
  
  
• Trump claimed Kamala Harris wants to bring back the military draft. She has never said anything like this, nor would it make any sense these days.
  
  
• Trump said that if California ran honest elections, he would win the state. As anyone who lives in California, or who follows California politics knows, this is a knee-slapper. Apparently, Trump's primary source for this is an assertion, by former California resident Elon Musk, that Californians love Trump. What we can tell you, as people who are or have been California residents, is that Californians love Trump... about as much as they love Musk.
  
  
• This week, while visiting Michigan, Trump broke out an old chestnut, and bragged that in 2015, he won Michigan's Man of the Year award. Nobody can find any evidence this award exists, that any award like it is being given out, or that Trump won an award of any sort in Michigan in 2015. The Trump campaign refuses to answer questions about the alleged award.
  
  
• It's not entirely new, but this week, Trump has developed a particular obsession with the idea that he's a latter-day Elvis Presley. He posted this to his $14.70-a-share social media platform:
  
  At his New York rally this week, Trump upped the ante, and claimed he is actually "greater even than Elvis" because Elvis needed a guitar to draw crowds and he (Trump) does not.

None of this is normal, and most of it is, to be blunt, kinda weird. We do not presume to know what's going on. Is the Trump campaign machine/BS engine just revving up to full capacity? Is he getting more and more desperate and unhinged because he fears he will lose (and thus, very likely, end up in prison)? Is he demonstrating the effects of age and/or mental decline?

Whatever it is, Trump produces so much of this sort of stuff that it's easy to miss most or all of it. If Joe Biden had said half of these things, or if either Kamala Harris or Tim Walz did so, there would have been wall-to-wall op-eds in The New York Times calling for their ouster from the Democratic ticket. But with Trump, politics-watchers have become so desensitized by his whackadoodlery that it barely gets noticed. We think that, once in a while, particularly after a week like this past one, it's worth taking a moment to pause and remind everyone that something here just ain't right. (Z)

Election Predictions: Two High-Profile Prognosticators Are Picking the Lady from California

We had a question, and then some letters, last weekend about prediction markets. So, we will pass along this news from Thomas Miller, who oversees Northwestern's data science program. In 2020, he used prediction markets to forecast the presidential election, and he correctly predicted a win for Joe Biden, getting only one state wrong (Georgia). That's better than we did, that's better than Nate Silver did, that's better than Cook Political Report did.

This year, Miller is back at it. Prior to the first debate (Trump-Biden), he thought that Donald Trump was in command of the race, and that 400 EVs were potentially within reach for him. The replacement of Biden with Kamala Harris flipped that script, such that prior to the second debate (Trump-Harris), Miller had the Harris-Walz ticket winning a close election, with 289 EVs. Now, he says that there's movement in Harris' direction that, if it holds, could presage a landslide. More specifically, he says that it's now Harris for whom 400 EVs are within reach.

We encourage caution here; you don't want to take this projection to the bank (or the betting market) quite yet. Miller's got a pretty short track record, and we are particularly leery of any system that says Donald Trump could win 400 EVs. That said, the data scientist did very well in 2020, not only on the presidential race, but also in the Senate races (he called the two Georgia races with a high degree of accuracy). So, we thought this was at least worth passing along.

And since we are on this subject anyhow, Allan Lichtman of "13 keys" fame, made his projection last week. He says eight keys (no internal contest for the nomination, no serious third party bid, economy not in recession, real per capita income growth, successful changes in national policy by the incumbent administration, no serious social unrest, no major scandals for the incumbent administration or the candidate, and a challenger who is not charismatic or a national hero) favor Harris. Lichtman says three keys (incumbent party lost seats in the midterms, the opponent is not the sitting president, the opponent is not charismatic or a national hero) favor Trump. He also says that two keys (major military failures, major military successes) are undetermined. In Lichtman's system, the incumbent party needs at least eight keys to prevail. Since Harris has them, Lichtman says she'll win.

After Lichtman made his call, we got many e-mails asking why we did not write an item about it. There are two reasons. First, we don't love his system. It's pretty squishy and subjective, and his "stellar" track record is based on a small number of close elections. Depending on exactly how you define that term ("close elections"), his success rate is basically the same as a coin flip. Also, his system does not see a difference between big wins and small wins. Sometimes, a candidate has 11 keys going for them and wins a squeaker. Sometimes, they have 8 keys and they win a blowout. That is... concerning, when it comes to evaluating the methodology.

The other reason we did not write it up is that this is the third time this cycle Lichtman has had his big reveal. He did it once for Biden, and then again for Harris 5-6 weeks ago, predicting a Democratic win both times. So, there isn't exactly any news here. Since Lichtman doesn't do squeaker vs. landslide, and since most of his keys don't change, his prediction now is the same as it was back then. Still, since we were writing about Miller anyhow, we tacked Lichtman on for those who really wanted to see something about his (latest) prediction. (Z)

There Is No Place Like Nebraska: Republicans Look to Tighten Their Grip on State's EVs

It is pretty clear, at this point, that if Donald Trump does win this year's presidential election, it's going to be a squeaker. He will not only lose the popular vote, yet again, but his upper limit on EVs looks to be in the 280s, and maybe the 270s. That means that every EV could count, and that Republicans are therefore looking under rocks for every last one.

We used "There Is No Place Like Nebraska" for the headline of this item, because that's the name of the song by Harry Pecha. But when it comes to chopping up electoral votes, there is, of course, one place like Nebraska, namely Maine. The former is a red state, run by Republicans, that might just give one EV to Kamala Harris (NE-02). The latter is a blue state, run by Democrats, that might just give one EV to Donald Trump (ME-02).

This week, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) taking the lead, Republican pooh-bahs have been twisting the arms of the Republicans in the state's unicameral legislature, trying to get them to change the rules. A few months ago, the legislature voted on the issue, and decided a change was not in order. We're not sure what Graham, et al. think might be different now as opposed to 3 months ago. Although, they can now point to viable scenarios where the Nebraska EV makes the difference between a Harris win and a tie (most obviously, if Harris wins all of the Biden states except for Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, that would give her 269 EVs, with NE-02's being the 270th). Maybe that will light a fire under the Nebraska legislators.

Back when Republicans first began plotting to unify Nebraska's EVs, the counterbalance was Maine, where the legislature was threatening to unify THAT state's EVs, thus canceling out a change made by the Nebraskans. However, what Graham presumably knows is that it's probably too late for that now. Maine law says that newly passed legislation must wait 90 days to be implemented. Since there are considerably fewer than 90 days to the election, the only way to make a change in time is for a two-thirds majority of each chamber to vote for it. Assuming Maine's Democratic legislators remain unified, they would need 21 Republican votes in the state House, and 2 Republican votes in the state Senate. House Majority Leader Maureen Terry (D) is not so sure the votes are there.

There is one other complication for Graham & Co., however. The Nebraska legislature is not in session right now, and won't be again before the election. So, it would not only be necessary to convince some legislators to change their votes, it would also be necessary to drag them away from their regular jobs to convene in Lincoln. Presumably, one way or another, we'll know in the next week or so. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!

For readers of a certain age and inclination, Mike Tyson's Punch-Out! was one of the great video games of all time. It is remarkable how much entertainment the good people at Nintendo managed to squeeze out of such primitive technology. Indeed, (Z) has the ROM on his desktop right now, and it's a grand total of... 262K. For a modern video game, that's not even enough for the configuration file.

We mention this because we really wanted to get "Mike" in last week, and we couldn't do it. Why? We will let reader J.L. in Walnut Creek, CA, explain:

Each headline includes a word from the NATO alphabet:

• Debate: With the Benefit of Hindsight... Harris Is Still the Hands-Down Victor
• Debate Memes: Bravo, Internet!
• Today in Ballot Shenanigans: RFK Jr. Is Working Hard to Have an Impact in November
• Endorsement News: Manchin, Gonzales Both Tango across the Aisle
• I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Whatever Happened to the Quebec Nordiques?
• This Week in Schadenfreude: Thugs in Uniform
• This Week in Freudenfreude: Yankee Ingenuity

Nicely done! You guys deserve an Oscar for continuing to have a new theme each week.

"Oscar," of course, is "O" and "Mike" is "M." Incidentally, we gave the hints on Friday that Donald Trump would hate the theme (because he hates NATO) and on Saturday that we tried to squeeze "Foxtrot" in there somewhere, because that is "F."

Here are the first 50 readers to figure it out (we allowed answers equivalent to "NATO" Alphabet, like "military alphabet" or "phonetic alphabet"):

J.C. in Keene, NH M.F. in Goshen, KY P.Q. in Metuchen, NJ K.E. in Peoria, IL K.F. in Berea, KS J.L. in Walnut Creek D.N. in Waltham, MA S.E. in Orlando, FL J.N. in Zionsville, IN D.M. Austin, TX J.H. in Sturbridge, MA T.M. in New York City, NY J.P. in Fredericksburg, VA A.C. in Kingston, MA R.R. in Lancaster, PA M.B. in Albany, NY C.K. in Aston, PA K.W. in Lafayette, IN C.B.L. in Warwick, RI E.K. in Arlington, MA K.J. in Hapeville, GA R.E. in Birmingham, AL B.S. in Ottawa, ON, Canada P.J. in Quakertown, PA, who asks, "What's your vector, Victor?" J.A.W. in Queens, NY

S.S. in Santa Monica, CA I.H. in Washington, DC P.H. in Buffalo Grove, IL T.S. in Sydney, NSW, Australia D.S. in Fort Collins, CO L.D. in Bedford, MA D.D. in Carversville, PA B.R. in Arlington, MA R.H.O. in Portland, ME E.P. in Long Beach, CA S.R.G. in Grecia, Costa Rica S.F. in Hutto, TX C.H. in Arlington, TX M.K.M. in Marblehead, MA H.B. in Berlin, Germany S.K. in Ardmore, PA T.K. in Half Moon Bay, St. Kitts K.O. in Winnipeg, MB, Canada M.M. in Manahawkin, NJ D.L. in Brookfield, IL E.B. in Hannover, Germany J.H. in Flint, MI P.M. in McKinney, TX E.Å. in Trondheim, Norway M.T. in Simpsonville, SC

We've been thinking about using this theme for quite a while, actually, since re-watching Top Gun (speaking of 1980s pop culture) a couple of months back.

As to this week's theme, it's a single word in every headline (though you could argue it's two words, in one case). We think it would fit best in the Trivial Pursuit category "Wild Card," though we suppose it could maybe go in "Nicknames." As to a hint, we think that political theorist Friedrich Engels, singer Faith Evans and former representative Fred Eckert (R-NY) would be at an advantage, if they tried to solve it.

If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com, with subject "September 20 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: The Mask Comes Off (Even More)

It seems to us, from where we are sitting, that would-be Wisconsin U.S. Senator Eric Hovde (R) is not a good guy. He's a carpetbagger who really lives in California, of course. But beyond that:

• He is an anti-abortion zealot who does not favor exceptions to abortion bans, even for rape or incest.
  
  
• He is anti-LGBTQ, and wants to re-outlaw gay marriage. He's also said that trans people suffer from "insanity."
  
  
• From his 6-million-dollar mansion in his home state of California, he said that poor people who cannot get food stamps are "just another sob story."
  
  
• Despite being only 60, he talks like a cranky old man who wants you to get off his lawn. He believes that young people today cannot "write properly" and don't "understand a good work ethic."
  
  
• He's said that nursing home residents shouldn't vote because they are so close to death. That means Hovde hates young people AND old people.

This is not an exhaustive list, but we think it's enough to give a pretty good picture of the man and his mind.

When someone is a jerk like this, it's definitely schadenfreude time when they get caught with their hand in the cookie jar. And, thanks to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, that looks to be what happened yesterday.

The primary source of Hovde's wealth is the California-founded bank Sunwest that he, as a California native, owns. Previously, he has refused to disclose any information about exactly who he does business with. However, what the MJ-S learned is that, back in December, Sunwest received a transfer of $26.2 million in cash from Banco Azteca in Mexico. The problem here is that Banco Azteca is well-known for doing business with the Sinaloa Cartel, which is one of the largest crime syndicates in Latin America, known for drug trafficking and money laundering.

As far as we can tell, Hovde has yet to respond to the news. And when he does, it's likely he'll deny that anything shady took place, or he'll say he didn't know about it. However, there are many dynamics here that make that a little hard to swallow:

• As we note above, Hovde has tried to keep his banking business under wraps, which is not usually a sign of someone who is entirely on the level.
  
  
• Even for a bank that has several billion dollars on deposit, $26.2 million is a big chunk of change.
  
  
• Banco Azteca is sleazy enough that numerous American banks have permanently severed ties, and refuse to do any more business with it. Think of it as the Deutsche Bank of Mexico.
  
  
• The $26.2 million was transferred in the form of cash, stacked on pallets that required four airplanes to transport. If a Hollywood screenwriter wanted to suggest money laundering, they could hardly paint a more vivid picture than that.

Hovde's opponent, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), appears to be pretty safe, leading in every poll of the race taken in the last few months. That said, a few polls have put Hovde within shouting distance (3-4 points). Presumably, a high-profile reminder of the kind of man he appears to be is not going to help on that front. After all, Baldwin will be able to say, "Donald Trump claims that undocumented immigrants are bringing gang money and violence into the United States. If you want to see who's actually doing that, just take a look at my opponent." (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Where There's a Will...

We've been sitting on this story for a couple of weeks, but now we can finally get to it. To start, take a look at this photo:

This was erected in 1908 by the Atlanta chapter of the United Daughters of the Confederacy (UDC), outside the old county court house. This is a very standard monument; the UDC put up thousands of obelisks (and other statues) like this one in the years after the Civil War, particularly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

And now, a close-up from a couple of years ago:

This tells you a couple of things. First, the monument had inscriptions on all four sides that were full of Lost Cause-inspired verbiage. The worst of the four (not shown here) said:

These men held that the states made the union, that the Constitution is the evidence of the covenant, that the people of the State are subject to no power except as they have agreed, that free convention binds the parties to it, that there is sanctity in oaths and obligations in contracts, and in defense of these principles they mutually pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor.

The theory of the Constitution advanced here is exactly the one that the Civil War killed. States are not, in fact, a power unto themselves. Meanwhile, the last bit ("pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor") is a callback to the fellows who wrote and signed the Declaration of Independence (the last line of the document, of course, is "we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor"). In other words, the leaders of the Confederacy were exactly like the leaders of the American Revolution. Uh, huh.

The second thing you can see in the picture is that the monument, over the years, became controversial, for obvious reasons. That reached a fever pitch after George Floyd was murdered; the photo shows some small amount of defacing that happened, along with the plethora of Black Lives Matter (and related) signs that were left at the base. It became problematic enough that judge Clarence Seeliger ordered the obelisk to be removed in June of 2020, on the basis that it was a public nuisance. That judge, incidentally, had a very interesting career; he first assumed his bench after defeating the judge who sentenced Martin Luther King Jr. to hard labor. Later Seeliger became the first Georgia judge to remove the Confederate flag from his courtroom. He also worked on other causes, like heading up the local domestic violence task force, and he just retired after 40 years as a jurist.

The reason this is in the news (again) is that a replacement for the obelisk has just been installed. Here it is:

That, of course, is former representative John Lewis. The name of the sculpture, which is carved on the base along with Lewis' name and dates, is "Empathy." The artist, Basil Watson, depicts Lewis with his hands clasped over his heart, a gesture the Representative often used to communicate "love." So, we've got a monument to white men who preached division and hate replaced by a monument to a Black man who preached unity and love. If that's not an upgrade, we don't know what is.

Have a good weekend, all! (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

There is an awful lot of variability here. For example, in Michigan, Emerson has Harris +1 and Morning Consult has Harris +8. They can't both be right but we won't know who is right until about Nov. 6. Same problem in Nevada. Probably they have different models of the electorate. Our hope is that by averaging so many polls together, the methodological errors will cancel out.

State	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	48%	47%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Arizona	49%	50%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
California	60%	29%	Aug 29	Sep 09	Public Policy Inst. of Calif.
Colorado	53%	42%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Florida	47%	50%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Georgia	48%	49%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Georgia	48%	50%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Maryland	61%	33%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Maryland	64%	33%	Sep 16	Sep 17	PPP
Michigan	50%	49%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Michigan	52%	44%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Minnesota	50%	43%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
North Carolina	45%	49%	Sep 16	Sep 18	Victory Insights
North Carolina	49%	47%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
North Carolina	50%	49%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Nevada	49%	49%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Nevada	51%	47%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
New York	55%	42%	Sep 11	Sep 16	Siena Coll.
Ohio	43%	52%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Pennsylvania	48%	48%	Sep 12	Sep 16	Braun Research
Pennsylvania	48%	48%	Sep 12	Sep 16	George Mason U.
Pennsylvania	49%	46%	Sep 04	Sep 15	Franklin + Marshall Coll.
Pennsylvania	49%	47%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Pennsylvania	50%	46%	Sep 11	Sep 16	Siena Coll.
Pennsylvania	50%	49%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Texas	46%	50%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Virginia	51%	44%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Wisconsin	49%	50%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Wisconsin	50%	44%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

How come nobody is polling Montana? It's the most critical state. Again here, look at the Pennsylvania polls. They are all over the map. And Colin Allred beating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)???

If you are a data nerd, you can download all the data using the link on the right of the blue bar above the map. You can put the data in Excel or Numbers and play games with them if you like.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	Ruben Gallego	48%	Kari Lake	42%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Arizona	Ruben Gallego	53%	Kari Lake	39%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
California	Adam Schiff	63%	Steve Garvey	35%	Aug 29	Sep 09	Public Policy Inst. of Calif.
Florida	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell	42%	Rick Scott*	46%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Massachusetts	Elizabeth Warren*	58%	John Deaton	32%	Sep 12	Sep 16	U. of New Hampshire
Maryland	Angela Alsobrooks	50%	Larry Hogan	33%	Sep 16	Sep 17	PPP
Maryland	Angela Alsobrooks	50%	Larry Hogan	39%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Maryland	Angela Alsobrooks	52%	Larry Hogan	37%	Sep 16	Sep 17	Marist Coll.
Michigan	Elissa Slotkin	47%	Mike Rogers	42%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Michigan	Elissa Slotkin	51%	Mike Rogers	37%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Michigan	Elissa Slotkin	52%	Mike Rogers	45%	Sep 12	Sep 17	Marist Coll.
Nevada	Jacky Rosen*	48%	Sam Brown	41%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Nevada	Jacky Rosen*	52%	Sam Brown	39%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
New York	Kirsten Gillibrand*	54%	Mike Sapraicone	31%	Sep 11	Sep 16	Siena Coll.
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	46%	Bernie Moreno	44%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	47%	David McCormick	42%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	48%	David McCormick	40%	Sep 04	Sep 15	Franklin + Marshall Coll.
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	48%	David McCormick	48%	Sep 12	Sep 16	Braun Research
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	48%	David McCormick	48%	Sep 12	Sep 16	George Mason U.
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	49%	David McCormick	40%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	49%	David McCormick	40%	Sep 11	Sep 16	Siena Coll.
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	52%	David McCormick	47%	Sep 12	Sep 17	Marist Coll.
Rhode Island	Sheldon Whitehouse*	51%	Patricia Morgan	33%	Sep 12	Sep 16	U. of New Hampshire
Texas	Colin Allred	45%	Ted Cruz*	44%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin*	49%	Eric Hovde	46%	Sep 15	Sep 18	Emerson Coll.
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin*	50%	Eric Hovde	43%	Sep 09	Sep 18	Morning Consult
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin*	51%	Eric Hovde	48%	Sep 12	Sep 17	Marist Coll.

* Denotes incumbent

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