The Politics of Hurricanes Have Come on Shore

Hurricane Milton hit Florida real hard last night, causing great devastation in a state that hasn't recovered from Hurricane Helene yet. Good thing climate change is a hoax. Imagine what it would be like if it were real. You can find stories about the hurricane and its damage everywhere, so we'll skip those and get right to the politics of hurricanes.

Hurricanes and natural disasters are not new, of course, but in the past, during the emergency, differences were put aside and everyone pitched in to help the people who were affected. Then the political fight came later, with one party blaming the president for insufficient help and the other one praising him for doing a great job. Same for governors.

This time it is different. It is in the final month of a bitterly fought presidential campaign and the stakes are much higher than politics as usual. Kamala Harris will be expected to show empathy, which she surely will. Donald Trump will not be expected to show empathy, he won't, and nobody will think this is unusual.

During Hurricane Helene, Trump spread misinformation about government aid. He tried to make people believe that the Biden/Harris administration didn't care about them and wouldn't help them. Harris is not going to let him get away with that again. This time she is talking about Trump's position by saying: "It's about him, it's not about you." She is blaming him for politicizing the disaster and trying to use it to help his election instead of focusing on helping people. FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell backed her up by saying that Trump was just trying to scare people. The White House also opened an account on Reddit to identify and combat misinformation.

Meanwhile, Trump is trying to create an alternative reality in which Biden and Harris are to blame for illegal immigration, crime, and even the hurricanes themselves. Trump has repeatedly said that Biden has refused to provide aid to Republican areas and Harris has used FEMA's budget to house illegal immigrants. He also said that the government was giving only $750 in aid to people who had lost their homes to Helene. He also claims that Harris is too mentally deficient to be president (despite his own clear decline). These are complete out-and-out lies, but to Trump, the only truth is what he says it is. Nevertheless, millions of people believe everything he says.

Harris is trying to counter this by running ads showing former Trump administration officials saying that as president Trump intentionally withheld aid from Democratic-leaning areas. The officials had to show him figures to convince him that withholding aid would also affect millions of people who voted for him. Here is one of them.

Harris is repeatedly pointing out that Trump puts his own needs before those of the American people and saying that he has no empathy at all for people in the path of the disaster.

Politically, the two most important hurricanes in recent years were Katrina in 2005 and Sandy in 2012. George W. Bush was widely lambasted for ignoring all the suffering in New Orleans during Katrina by hanging out in sunny Arizona at John McCain's birthday party. That overshadowed his whole second term. In contrast, Barack Obama's handling of superstorm Sandy won him praise and helped him defeat Mitt Romney. During Sandy, then-governor Chris Christie worked closely with Obama and thanked him for the help to his state.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) now has a choice to make. Will he make nice to Biden, as Christie did to Obama, in an attempt to maximize the aid his state gets? Or will he spurn Biden in order to help his 2028 presidential campaign? If he embraces Biden, his opponents in 2028 will call him a RINO and a secret Democrat. If he tells Biden to keep out of the way and people suffer badly in Florida, his 2028 opponents will claim he demonstrated that he couldn't run a lemonade stand, let alone the whole country. Turns out having to actually govern is tough. Who knew? What DeSantis may try to do is somehow work with Biden to maximize aid but at the same time blame Harris for the hurricane in the first place. It won't be easy.

DeSantis is not the only Florida politician on the spot now. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) is running this ad against her opponent, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL):

In the ad, Mucarsel-Powell says that as governor, Scott took millions in campaign contributions from insurance companies and then let them raise property insurance rates and deny claims. Property insurance is a sore point in Florida since premiums are now so high, many people go without it. When uninsured people's homes are destroyed by a surge, they are in deep mud, literally and financially. The ad also notes that as a senator, Scott has voted against aid to impacted areas. This could be an effective ad in the aftermath of two hurricanes. Our take from the ad is that Mucarsel-Powell speaks with no trace of a Spanish accent at all, even though she lived the first 14 years of her life in Ecuador. She looks and sounds like a generic blonde suburban Florida woman, and that could help her with Republican voters. Nobody watching the ad would think "immigrant."

Also worth noting is that all but two counties on Florida's West Coast voted for Trump in 2020. The two exceptions are Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties (Tampa and west of Tamp, respectively). If voting is depressed on the West Coast but not in South Florida, that could help Harris and Mucarsel-Powell. We may know more once it is clear where the worst damage is and how bad it is. (V)

On Paper, Trump and Harris Agree on Most Issues

Listening to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump speak, one might think they totally and completely disagree on every issue. Surprisingly, that is not really true. They are actually pretty close on a large variety of issues, such as these:

• Stronger borders and tougher immigration laws
• A much tougher stance against China
• Increasing domestic energy production, including fracking
• Not over-regulating AI
• Providing incentives for companies to do manufacturing in the U.S. and not abroad
• Supporting Israel and its wars
• Offering parents more child-care assistance in various forms
• Protecting IVF treatment
• Opposing a national abortion ban (except Trump doesn't actually mean it)
• Protecting Social Security and Medicare
• Not taxing tipped income

The explanation is that the Democrats have been the party of the working class since Franklin Delano Roosevelt and have always been pro-worker. Now that Trump has remade the Republican Party with white working-class men as the base, he at least has to act pro-worker. Of course, Harris actually means what she says and Trump usually doesn't, but some workers don't get it. Also, to an extent, the blue-collar workers who are now Republicans are there because they hate gay people, trans people, minorities and pointy-headed college grads, and they think women belong in the house and not in the House. So all Trump has to do on the economic issues is give them a bit of lip service. (V)

Trump: Gaza Could Be Better Than Monaco

Once in a while Donald Trump says something that is actually very explosive, but doesn't get the attention it deserves. Yesterday we had a long item on how the Middle East could provide this year's October surprise. We still think this is so. However, on Monday, Trump said something about the Middle East that is significant. He said that Gaza could be rebuilt "better than Monaco," the Mediterranean tax-haven for the ultra wealthy. Trump said of Gaza: "It has the best location in the Middle East, the best water, the best everything." That's the real estate developer in him speaking.

The idea of turning Gaza into Monaco, or at least into Miami Beach East, is not new with the Trump family. Jared Kushner made the same point earlier this year, adding a small detail. Kushner said that the coastline was "very valuable waterfront property." He envisioned filling it with luxury condos and five-star hotels.

The only problem with Trump's plan and young Jared's plan is that Gaza is not empty. Over two million Gazans live in the Gaza Strip. How would they fit into these plans? Trump doesn't say, but the implication is that they should be gotten rid of somehow. Kushner is more explicit. He wants Israel to bulldoze an area in the Negev Desert and transport the Gazans there so he can make lots of money developing Gaza into Miami Beach East or now maybe Monaco.

Many of the Arab-Americans in Michigan are unhappy with Joe Biden arming Israel, but Biden has never called for physically transporting all the Gazans out into the middle of the desert as Trump's son-in-law has. If Trump wins the election and Michigan ends up being the key to his win by a few hundred votes, they may get buyer's remorse next year when Trump and Kushner actually try to "develop" Gaza into a paradise for rich people and tourists after deporting all the Gazans to the middle of the desert somewhere. (V)

Romney Chickens Out

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) despises Donald Trump and everything he stands for. The Senator wants the former president out of the Republican Party for good. Romney is not running for reelection and is worth over a quarter of a billion dollars. Yet he is scared to death to get out in public and say: I am voting for Kamala Harris." The best he can muster is: "I've made it very clear that I don't want Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States." He could mention who he does want. Maybe Chase Oliver? Jill Stein? Inquiring minds want to know. What a coward.

The worst part of Romney's cowardice is that his refusal to endorse Harris and campaign for her increases the chances that Trump will win. If he, like Liz Cheney, were to go out there every day in a different swing state calling out Trump as an incompetent bigot and liar interested only in himself, he could give many traditional Republicans "permission" to vote for a Democrat this one time. It could really help, especially with LDS Church members in Arizona and Nevada. Yet Romney won't do it.

Some reports say that he is afraid if Trump wins, Trump will have Romney and his family arrested on phony charges. Even though Romney can afford the best lawyers, being put through the wringer would be punishment enough for him, so he doesn't want to antagonize Trump any more than he has already done. Of course, if he actively campaigned for Harris, he might be able to avoid the problem by not having Trump in the White House, but apparently he is so risk averse that he doesn't want to take the chance. If someday, someone writes a book entitled Profiles in Cowardice, he is sure to get a chapter. (V)

Democrats Can't Rely on "Souls to the Polls" Anymore

Traditionally, Democrats relied heavily on Black churches to handle their GOTV work among Black voters. On the Sunday before Election Day, many Black churches would charter buses to bring parishioners to the local polling place after services. This operation was known as "Souls to the Polls." It worked very well for decades, but it is not working at all anymore. What happened?

Bus drivers' strike? No. Bus charter prices are through the roof? No. Parking problems at the polls? No. Young Black voters don't go to church anymore. Souls to the Polls is still in effect and still works for older Black voters, but they were never much in doubt. It is the younger ones, especially young Black men, where the Democrats are having problems, and many of them have abandoned organized religion altogether. One 2021 survey showed that fully a third of Black Gen Z millennials identified as nonreligious, compared to 11% of Black Baby Boomers. And of the Black Gen Zers who do go to church, only half go to a church with Black clergy, compared to two-thirds of Black Boomers. In the past, the Democrats could sign up all the Black pastors in an area to do the Souls to the Polls thing and be pretty sure of covering the vast majority of Black voters. That simply isn't true anymore.

Kamala Harris understands this, and is working on other ways to reach young Black voters. Her campaign is heavily on social media and does outreach on HBCU campuses. It shows up at music festivals and sporting events. It also has contact with the Divine Nine Black fraternities and sororities. Together they have 4 million members.

Another survey reinforces the problem. Among young Black voters, Black pastors rank below Black business leaders and even local Black politicians in terms of respect. Other data back this up. Only 68% of Black Baptists view themselves as Democrats now, down from 78% 50 years ago. Those who left the church also left the Democratic Party. But it cuts both ways. One pastor, Dwight McKissic, said: "I honestly don't believe it should be the purpose of a church to try to persuade people to vote for any particular candidate." So Harris clearly needs other ways to get to (young) Black voters. The old ways don't work anymore. (V)

Election Deniers Are on Many Swing State Election Boards

Joseph Stalin once famously said: "It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes." Was Stalin thinking about the six counties in Pennsylvania where election officials refused to certify the 2020 election results? Probably not, but if he knew about them he might be thinking kind thoughts about them from his grave.

In multiple swing states, there are election officials who believe Donald Trump's "Big Lie" and are determined to make sure he wins in 2024, no matter what the people want. If one or two on a county election board refuse to certify a win for Kamala Harris, they can be outvoted, but if it is a majority somewhere, they could seriously gum up the works.

Reuters examined the election boards in the five largest counties in the seven swing states. It found that on 16 of the 35 boards, at least one member was an outspoken Trumper who has expressed doubt about the integrity of voting machines, absentee ballots, or some other aspect of the 2020 election. In all, they discovered 37 election skeptics on the 35 boards. Of these, 20 have a history of refusing to certify election results. The only state with no election deniers on the boards of the five biggest counties was Wisconsin. All the others had at least one, often multiple ones. Smaller counties also have election skeptics on their boards, but Reuters didn't track them.

In most cases, the election deniers won't be able to reverse the results, but they could try to delay the process until after the deadline for certification, which is Dec. 11, 2024, per federal law. The results have to be in by then because the Electoral College meets for its first and only class on Dec. 17, 2024. If one or more counties refuse to certify the results, that could conceivably lead to the state being unable to certify the entire election on time. In that case, the state legislature might step in and appoint its own slate of electors.

Of course, counties don't have the ultimate authority on elections. The secretary of state can give orders to the county boards. If they fail to obey them, in some cases, the secretary can take over the certification process. It is also possible to get the courts involved. And in the end, it is the governor who must sign the certificate of ascertainment that is sent to Congress and the National Archives.

Some states are anticipating problems and dealing with them preemptively. Michigan, for example, has passed a law stating that the authority of the local boards is to add up the votes cast and report the totals. They explicitly do not have the authority to hold up certification because they suspect fraud. That is the job of the courts later on. The secretary of state has the power to enforce this by bypassing the local board if need be. Michigan's secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, has made it clear she understands the situation and what she might be up against. For example, she may be up against Kellie Deming, a member of Huron County's election board. Deming asserts that Trump won in 2020 and is still president. She is not sure she can certify this year's results (at least until she sees them). But the law and power are with Benson this time and everyone knows that. Similar situations may play out in other states, where the law is not always so clear as in Michigan.

Also, the process for members of Congress objecting to electoral votes has been revised by the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022. To challenge the electoral votes of a state, one-fifth of the newly installed House and one-fifth of the newly installed Senate must object. There might be 87 crazies in the House to do that, but getting 20 senators to object will be much harder. (V)

The Senate Also Has a Freedom Caucus

As long as we are on the subject of crazies, there is no official Freedom Caucus in the Senate, as there is in the House. However, a group of about a dozen senators informally function as a Freedom Caucus without the explicit label. They are now trying to exert their power.

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is not running for reelection to the leadership, so there is a three-way battle for his job. If Republicans gain a majority in the Senate, or even 50 seats and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) gets promoted to President of the Senate, the stakes will be enormous. If the Democrats capture the House and the Republicans control the Senate, then the Senate Majority Leader will be the most powerful Republican position in Congress and hugely important, so the "Freedom Caucusers" want one of their own on top.

One of the candidates for McConnell's job is Rick Scott, who is one of the "FCers," although not guaranteed to be reelected if Hurricane Milton interferes with the vote in heavily Republican West Florida. The others are Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX). It is widely expected that no candidate will get a majority of the caucus on the first ballot and Scott will come in third and be eliminated. Note that unlike the House, where the entire House votes for the leader (the Speaker), the majority leader of the Senate is elected by the majority conference.

If Scott is eliminated on round one, how the dozen or so "FCers" vote on round two could determine who wins. For this reason, one of the other "FCers," Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), has announced a series of demands that the two remaining candidates might wish to consider if they want the votes of the "FCers." Here are their demands:

• Filling the Tree: The Senate has many arcane procedures, including one called filling the tree. When a bill comes up, the majority leader can go first and offer so many amendments that no more amendments are allowed. This reduces the power of individual senators to offer amendments the leader does not want, but that might have the votes to pass. Lee wants a Senate rule prohibiting the new leader from filling the tree unless three-quarters of the Republican Conference agree to it. If adopted, it would take power away from the leader and give conference members more power to shape bills.
  
  
• Debate Time: McConnell had the habit of staying up all night with aides to write 1,000-page tax and other bills and then demand a vote at 9 a.m. the next morning, before any of the senators could read them. Lee wants to end this practice by requiring 4 weeks for debating and amending all major bills.
  
  
• Make a Schedule: Some things come up every year, like the budget. Lee wants to fix a schedule at the beginning of the session for debating the budget and then to stick with it. This would prevent the leadership from cooking up its own budget just before midnight on the day the government's funding runs out.
  
  
• Tie up the Whip: Another priority of the "FCers" is to require the Republican Conference whip to refrain from whipping votes on bills unless those bills have majority support in the Conference. In the past, when up against deadlines and most Republicans were against some bill, McConnell would ask for and get Democratic votes in return for giving the Democrats something. In other words, he was willing to compromise and pass legislation in a bipartisan way. Lee and the others want to stop this terrible practice.
  
  
• Set Policy Goals: Lee wants the Republican Conference to set priorities and strategies and then refuse to budge. That way, when there were a few Republican holdouts (like the "FCers") on some bill, the negotiators would not have the freedom to make concessions that were in conflict with the stated policy goals.

All in all, if adopted, these changes to internal rules would hamstring the new leader and give individual senators more power. They would also prevent the new leader from working with the Democrats on anything. In effect, they would come close to giving the "FCers" a veto on the functioning of the Senate, just as the official FC has in the House.

Thune and Cornyn both want the job of conference leader, so it is possible that one of them might give Lee what he wants to get the job. Of course, neither Thune and Cornyn wants to be hamstrung, so it is possible that they have a little chat and both reject Lee's whole plan. Then Lee and the others will still have to pick one or the other, but the winner won't be their puppet. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

The Quinnipiac poll of Michigan is a bit of an outlier. Harris has been leading in most recent Michigan polls. It is probably just statistical noise. Nevertheless, if you look at the map today, it is Harris 251, Trump 251, and Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona all exact ties. It doesn't get much closer than this.

State	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Michigan	47%	51%	Oct 03	Oct 07	Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania	49%	47%	Oct 03	Oct 07	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	47%	49%	Oct 03	Oct 07	Quinnipiac U.

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

There have been 32 polls of the Michigan Senate race so far. The first 31 all had Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) leading. Now she is tied? Note above we have an unusual result for the presidential race in Michigan. If we could dig up William of Ockham, clue him in on Michigan and ask him: "What gives?" we strongly suspect he would go with "Too many Republicans in the sample." The other three polls agree with all the previous ones. Larry Hogan is popular, but he is still a Republican in a state that does not like Republicans.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Maryland	Angela Alsobrooks	48%	Larry Hogan	39%	Sep 23	Sep 28	U. of Maryland
Michigan	Elissa Slotkin	48%	Mike Rogers	48%	Oct 03	Oct 07	Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	51%	David McCormick	43%	Oct 03	Oct 07	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin*	50%	Eric Hovde	46%	Oct 03	Oct 07	Quinnipiac U.

* Denotes incumbent

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