It's the Economy, Stupid: Port Strikers Head Back to Work

Crisis averted, it would seem. Although a big chunk of the nation's dockworkers threatened to mount an extended strike that might have run through Election Day, union leadership and management have worked out a tentative, partial deal after just 3 days (with meaningful input from the Biden administration).

By "tentative," we mean that the rank-and-file members have to vote to approve the deal. That's not automatic in these situations, but it's pretty likely approval will be granted here. The new contract calls for wages to be increased $4/hour each year for the next 6 years. That adds up to a raise of 62% over the life of the contract, which is pretty good.

By "partial," we mean that some issues, most obviously the use of automation, remain to be resolved. The two sides will continue to discuss the loose ends, with a deadline of January 15 before the union will ponder another strike. That means that, unless the new agreement is rejected, this can has been kicked down the road until well after the election. These folks should consider running for Congress.

Broadly speaking, this is pretty good news for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, since the party in power always gets the blame (fair or not) for economic problems. If imports had ceased, it could have really knocked the economy for a loop. In particular, the ports affected by the strike include several where oil is imported. There was talk of $100/barrel oil, which would have caused gas prices to spike. If your party holds the White House, the last thing you want is for gas prices to jump by a buck or two a gallon a few weeks before the presidential election.

There is at least one other issue of this sort looming on the horizon. The latest jobs report came out today, and it is decent. Not great, not terrible. But the next jobs report, which will be released 3 days before Election Day, figures to be pretty bad because of the impact of Hurricane Helene. Will people hear about it when it comes out, and allow it to affect their votes? That's possible, but it's less likely to have an effect than the gas prices, given the short timeline and the fact that many people will have voted already. The blue team would prefer a good jobs report as opposed to a bad one, but if there is going to be a bad one before the election, then this is probably the best-case scenario. Well, unless the Bureau of Labor Statistics agreed to release it Saturday night at 11:00 p.m. (Z)

Endorsement Watch: Liz Cheney Hits the Road

When Liz Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris, we assumed the former representative would go beyond that, and would actually take the show on the road. Last night, the two women appeared together in Wisconsin. And next week, there will be a series of pro-Harris events, including a fireside chat, in Pennsylvania. For the Keystone State swing, Cheney will be joined by former Trump aides Alyssa Farah Griffin, Cassidy Hutchinson and Sarah Matthews, all of whom have turned against him. The quartet is expected to remain on the hustings for the remainder of the campaign.

And as long as we are on the subject of endorsements, Bruce Springsteen made it official yesterday, and endorsed Harris. That was hardly a surprise, since The Boss is a well-known Democrat. However, his endorsement was pretty blistering. Describing Donald Trump as "the most dangerous candidate for president in my lifetime," Springsteen declared:

Friends, fans, and the press have asked me who I'm supporting in this most important of elections, and with full knowledge of my opinions no more or less important than those of any of my fellow citizens, here's my answer. I'm supporting Kamala Harris for president and Tim Walz for vice president, and opposing Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. Here is why: We are shortly coming upon one of the most consequential elections in our nation's history. Perhaps not since the Civil War has this great country felt as politically, spiritually, and emotionally divided as it does than at this moment. It doesn't have to be this way.

So, that's Springsteen, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, John Legend and Cardi B for Harris, and Kid Rock, Ted Nugent and Lee Greenwood for Trump. Hmmmmm... very tough to say which list is better. Harris also has Mel Brooks, by the way, which should really end the election right there.

Finally, there was also a notable non-endorsement yesterday. The International Association of Fire Fighters announced that it will not back either candidate this year. It's pretty much the same story as with the Teamsters; the rank and file is Trumpy, the leadership knows Trump is anti-labor, and the easiest way out was to turtle up.

With about 331,000 members, the Firefighters union is the 20th largest in the country. Losing their support hurts, but not as much as losing, say, the National Education Association (3 million members) or the Service Employees International Union (2 million members). So, the Democrats' traditional strength with labor, which dates back two centuries, largely remains in effect, at least for now. (Z)

Melania Trump: A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing?

As you have probably seen or read or heard, Melania Trump is hawking a memoir right now. Although it's not yet out, her publisher has been leaking bits and pieces of it in order to get people interested. The stuff last week, in which the former First Lady talked about how proud she was of her nude modeling, was pretty salacious. But, in the end, we really don't care. Do U?

The newest bit that has been released is of considerably more interest to us. As it turns out, Mrs. Trump is something of a hardliner on abortion. And we don't mean anti-choice. We mean that she is to the left of most Democrats on the issue. Here's what she (or, let's be honest, her ghostwriter) wrote:

It is imperative to guarantee that women have autonomy in deciding their preference of having children, based on their own convictions, free from any intervention or pressure from the government.

Why should anyone other than the woman herself have the power to determine what she does with her own body? A woman's fundamental right of individual liberty, to her own life, grants her the authority to terminate her pregnancy if she wishes.

Restricting a woman's right to choose whether to terminate an unwanted pregnancy is the same as denying her control over her own body. I have carried this belief with me throughout my entire adult life.

Trump previously said that she prefers to keep political disagreements between her and her husband private. Apparently, that policy has gone out the window.

Once this news broke, there were scores of pieces trying to figure out what the Trumps are playing at, and what kind of 3-D chess they are playing. The general conclusion of these pieces is that the Trumps are playing some version of good cop, bad cop, and that if they have very different views on abortion access, it will assuage moderate voters.

For our part, we do not believe this for one minute. First, Melania has no influence over policy, and if a national abortion ban were to come to her husband's desk, she would not be able to stop him from signing it. Second, let us say it again: The Trumps do not play 3-D chess. Not ever. Melania goes by her gut just as much as Donald does. Third, and finally, Melania has shown near-total disinterest in this campaign. She's not suddenly going to participate in a scheme like this.

We see two plausible explanations. The first is that, for whatever reason, Melania is trying to rake in as much cash as she can, while she can. "Shocking" revelations will help move product when the book comes out next week. Truth be told, with Barron away at college, and Donald's finances up in the air (don't forget, a court in New York ordered him to fork over half a billion dollars), Melania might be trying to give herself a safety net when and if there's a divorce.

The other possibility is that Melania is angry with her husband, and is trying to undermine his presidential bid. We know little about the dynamics of their relationship, other than what we see in their (rare) joint appearances. But this does not seem out of the realm of possibility, given what we know of them.

Of course, the real question is whether or not this will help the Democrats. It certainly could, particularly if a commercial with Melania sharing her views on abortion (there are several clips already) ends up in heavy rotation, perhaps with a tagline along the lines of: "Even Donald Trump's wife knows his views on abortion are extreme." This sounds like a job for the Lincoln Project. That said, ad rates for non-campaign groups (PACs, etc.) are now between 10 and 25 times as much as they are for campaigns, because of limited inventory. So, the Harris campaign might need to take care of this one themselves. (Z)

Show Me the Money: House Democratic Spending (Largely) Smothers Republican Spending

How much does money help a political campaign? Not a tremendous amount, but not zero, either. To get a sense of what is going on with spending on House races, here's the breakdown for the 10 most expensive races, thus far, this cycle.

Dist.	Held By	Dem Spending	Rep Spending	Differential
NY-19	Marc Molinaro (R)	$18.6 million	$16.8 million	$1.8 million
MI-07	Open (Elissa Slotkin, D)	$17.6 million	$15.2 million	$2.4 million
NC-01	Don Davis (D)	$18.9 million	$12 million	$6.9 million
PA-08	Matt Cartwright (D)	$16.9 million	$12.4 million	$4.5 million
PA-07	Susan Wild (D)	$16.4 million	$12.9 million	$3.5 million
CO-08	Yadira Caraveo (D)	$16.7 million	$9.4 million	$7.3 million
CA-27	Mike Garcia (R)	$12.6 million	$12.6 million	$0
ME-02	Jared Golden (D)	$14 million	$11.2 million	$2.8 million
NY-17	Mike Lawler (R)	$14 million	$11.1 million	$2.9 million
CA-47	Open (Katie Porter, D)	$15.4 million	$8.9 million	$5.5 million

As you can see, the Democrats are largely leaving the Republicans in the dust, sometimes by a huge margin, especially by the standards of a House race.

It is worth noting that seven of these ten seats are already held by Democrats, so much of this money is being spent playing defense. That said, defending existing seats is a big part of taking over the House. Further, the Democrats are also outpacing the Republicans in two of the three Republican-held seats. Oh, and on top that, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) has a new headache to deal with, as of yesterday (keep reading). (Z)

October Surprises: Two New York Congressmen May Be in Hot Water

OK, technically, one of these stories broke about a week ago (in September) and we just haven't been able to get around to it. Still, we think it fits the spirit of the concept, if not the letter.

That story is about Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY), who has himself a bit of a corruption/sex scandal on his hands. See, he gave a job to his lover, which is a no-no. He also gave a job to... his fiancee's daughter. That's another no-no, of course. Though at least he's spreading the favors around to everyone he's sleeping with, we suppose.

D'Esposito's response to this news, first reported by The New York Times, was to go on the defensive. In a statement, he asserted that he has "upheld the highest ethical standard of personal conduct." He added:

The latest political tabloid garbage being peddled by The New York Times is nothing more than a slimy, partisan 'hit piece' designed to distract Long Islanders from Democrats' failing record on border security, the economy and foreign policy,

Uh, huh. The careful reader will notice that nowhere in there does D'Esposito say the reporting is not true.

Meanwhile, yesterday, Mike Lawler joined D'Esposito on the naughty list. In this case, the problem is not adultery or corruption; it's racism, as Lawler became the latest person to have a blackface picture from his college yearbook come to light. It was the early 2000s, his Halloween costume was Michael Jackson, and he thought it best to sell the bit by blackening his face.

Lawler's response to the news was at least a little bit better than what we saw out of D'Esposito. The Representative said, in an appearance on CNN: "Obviously I can't change what happened 18 years ago. But I certainly, with wisdom and age, understand that that is not something that I would do today, and certainly understand why people would be upset or offended by it. And for that, I'm sorry." If he'd left it there, it would be hard to complain too much. However, he then added that there was "no ill intent" and he wanted to "pay homage to somebody who was a musical idol for me." When you add all the qualifiers, you're getting pretty close to non-apology apology territory.

We do not know New York politics well enough to know exactly how much tolerance Empire State voters have for things like this. What we do know is that both representatives won their seats for the first time in 2022, a non-presidential year, by very thin margins. D'Esposito, who represents the D+5 NY-04, defeated former town supervisor of Hempstead Laura Gillen (D) by 2.6% of the vote. He's facing off against Gillen again this year. Lawler, who represents the D+3 NY-17, won by just 0.6% of the vote in 2022, becoming the first Republican to claim the seat since 1980. This year, he's up against Mondaire Jones (D), who is not only a well-known former member of the House, but is also Black.

Given how close these elections figured to be anyhow, even a little damage from the two scandals could be fatal. At this point, the National Republican Congressional Committee should really be hoping that they can at least hold one of the two. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Chip 'n' Dale (but not Chippendales)

For last week's headline theme, we gave the hint: "[W]e'll say that you might serve while doing this, but nobody is going to eat." On Saturday, we added: "We could plausibly have used the words King, Queens and Prince." And now the solution, courtesy of reader T.M. in New York City, NY:

Every headline has a tennis term in it.

• Legal News, Part I: Smith Serves Up a Mega-Brief (MAGA-Brief?)
• Legal News, Part II: Eric Adams Is in No Man's Land
• The Debate's Not Yet Over, Part I: The Ball Is In Trump's Court?
• The Debate's Not Yet Over, Part II: One Last Set of Memes
• The Next Debate Is Upon Us, Part I: Walz Prepares for Next Week's Match with Help from Buttigieg
• The Next Debate Is Upon Us, Part II: The Vance Dossier Is Out
• I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Little Deuce Coupe
• This Week in Schadenfreude: Talk about an Unforced Error
• This Week in Freudenfreude: You Gotta Love This

No Man's Land is the space between the two vertical lines on the court, the baseline and the half-court line. As to Saturday's clue, Billie Jean King is a legendary tennis player, Queens is where they play the U.S. Open, and Prince is a popular brand of tennis equipment. Oh, and a chip, from the headline of this item, is a type of shot.

Here are the first 50 readers to get it right:

B.P. in Arlington Heights, IL M.R. in Milford, CT T.M. in New York City M.W. in Altea, Spain D.B. in Glendale, CA K.F. in Berea, KY R.L. in Concord, MA M.W. in Frederick, MD D.M. in Austin, TX J.T. in Philadelphia, PA D.S. in Layton, UT M.C.A. in San Francisco, CA J.U. in Chicago, IL J.C. in Bloomfield, NJ S.W. in Winter Garden, FL B.P. in La Habra, CA M.M. in Charlottesville, VA R.C. in Eagleville, PA G.K. in Blue Island, IL J.S. in Somerset, MA S.K. in Ardmore, PA C.K. in Aston, PA G.W. in Avon, CT M.M. in Dunellen, NJ B.A. in Edmond, OK

I.H. in Washington, DC B.C. in Manhattan Beach, CA M.T. in Wheat Ridge, CO M.B. in Albany, NY R.D. in Cheshire, CT S.F. in Hutto, TX D.D. in Carversville, PA W.M. in Istanbul, Turkey J.M. in New Orleans, LA D.B. in Pittsboro, NC D.M. in Seattle, WA D.C. in South Elgin, IL T.F. in Craftsbury Common, VT K.R. in Austin, TX S.W. in Madison, WI C.M. in Ottawa, ON, Canada D.K. in Chicago, IL P.D. in Leamington, ON, Canada N.S. in Fayetteville, NY M.M. in Manahawkin, NJ K.O. in Winnipeg, MB, Canada J.M. in Grayson, GA E.R. in Alexandria, VA J.E. in San Jose, CA M.M. in Leonardtown, MD

Several respondents sent in the famous photo of Donald Trump playing tennis, where his rear end and tighty-whities are on full display. If anyone does that again, we may have to ban you from the site.

As to this week's theme, it relies on a single word in every headline, and it's in the Trivial Pursuit category Nicknames. For a hint, we'll tell you that we added "Chippendales" to the headline of this item, in part, because it's adjacent to the theme, in a manner of speaking.

If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line "October 4 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: The Wisdom of Solomon? Not Exactly

There's stupid. And there is really stupid. And then there is Tina Peters.

Peters, you may recall, is the former Mesa County (CO) Clerk who decided to abuse her position to help the "Stop the steal" crew. Specifically, she conspired to give access to the county's voting machines to an associate of MyPillow guy Mike Lindell. Peters did a ham-fisted job of it, got caught redhanded, and went on trial in August, and was convicted.

We obviously don't have any use for these crooked people. Nonetheless, we would say that if you ARE going to engage in chicanery, the time to drop the matter is when you hear "Yeah, I'm a friend of Mike Lindell." Failing that, then wisdom would seem to suggest that you should at least be contrite during your jury trial. And if you can't bring yourself to do that, then at least shut your yap once you've been convicted.

Peters did not do any of these things. She not only participated in the original scam, she was defiant during her trial. And after her conviction, she continued to spread lies and conspiracy theories via both press conferences and social media. District Judge Matthew Barrett was, to say the least, not impressed. And during sentencing yesterday, he decreed: "I am convinced you would do it all over again if you could. You're as defiant as any defendant this court has ever seen. You are no hero. You abused your position and you're a charlatan." The Judge handed down a sentence of 9 years. Given that Peters is 69, that's... a pretty hefty stretch.

We are very glad to see Peters pay a steep price for her crimes. First, because she's obnoxious, and deserves to be punished. Second because it's useful to have a reminder, this close to the election, that: (1) stop the steal shenanigans are hard to get away with, (2) if you get caught, you are at risk of doing hard time, and (3) Donald Trump will never, ever, ever intervene to help you out, not even a little bit. Maybe that will cause a few potential crooked election officials to think twice. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Will and Harper

Comedian Will Ferrell is a USC graduate, but he's overcome that to become one of the most well-liked people in the entertainment business.

This week, the Saturday Night Live alum has been giving an object lesson in why his colleagues think so highly of him. During his time on SNL, one of the writers that Ferrell worked with on a regular basis was Harper Steele. Since their time on the show, Steele has come out as trans. And when she broke the news to Ferrell, the actor decided that he needed to do more than just accept the transition.

And so, Ferrell deployed some of his star power, and persuaded Netflix to fund a documentary called Will and Harper. It features highlights of a 2-week road trip that Steele and Ferrell took across the United States, interspersed with interview-type moments where Ferrell asks Steele about being trans.

At the moment, the duo is in the midst of a second road trip across the country, meant to promote the film. As part of the deal with Netflix, Ferrell insisted that it be released shortly before the presidential election. "We wanted it to have enough runway for people to get to see it and hopefully start having important discussions in their living rooms," he explained.

From where we sit, it's nice to see a high-profile individual trying to engage with a controversial issue, and in a way that is non-confrontational. We know that not everyone reading this will approve of what Ferrell is doing. We find, in these situations, that a useful litmus test is: "Would Jimmy Carter approve?" We are confident he would, in this case.

Have a good weekend, all! (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

Given the devastation wrought by Helene, can we trust any polls from North Carolina? Unless the pollster is super careful, people in the 25 affected counties will be underpolled. These include very blue Buncombe County (Asheville) and the outlying red counties. Also, the concept "likely voter" takes on a whole new meaning now. People who insist they want to vote and are counted as likely voters may not be able to vote for logistical reasons. We think it is unfortunate, but don't take polling of North Carolina very seriously going forward.

State	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
North Carolina	48%	48%	Sep 20	Sep 29	High Point U.
New Hampshire	51%	44%	Oct 01	Oct 02	St. Anselm Coll.
Ohio	44%	51%	Sep 18	Sep 27	YouGov

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

The Senate is going to come down to Jon Tester and just maybe Colin Allred and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell if there is a blue wave. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	49%	Bernie Moreno	45%	Sep 18	Sep 27	YouGov

* Denotes incumbent

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