The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the three independents as Democrats):
- 23 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2024 and 28 seats are not up, for a total of 51 seats
- 11 Republican seats are up for reelection in 2024 and 38 seats are not up, for a total of 49 seats
For the time being, we are assuming all incumbents will run for reelection unless they specifically state that they won't.
The map strongly favors the Republicans. Half a dozen Democrats are potentially in danger and no Republicans are potentially in danger. Democrats have to play defense in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, among other places.
The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Independents and then Republicans following.
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Democratic-held seats
California
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Dianne Feinstein would have been 91 on Election Day, which is well past retirement age in most professions, but is middle-aged in a body where members sometimes linger past the century mark (see: Thurmond, Strom). Still, she decided to throw in the towel. This set off a feeding frenzy because open Senate seats in California are a once-in-a-generation event. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) couldn't wait and declared even before Feinstein announced her plans. A day later, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) told fellow lawmakers that she was in. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) is also in. Later Feinstein died, but that didn't affect the race. Given California's jungle primary system, the Nov. 2024 election will likely be one Democrat against another. And in any case, the seat will stay blue. The only open question is which Democrat will be sitting in it. The smart money is betting on Schiff vs. Porter in the general election. If that happens, Schiff is probably the favorite because Republicans will have to choose the lesser of two evils and that will be Schiff. |
Connecticut
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Nothing to see here. Murphy is popular in his home state, is a leading Trump critic, and won his first Senate election by 11 points. The second time he won by 20 points. The Republicans will find some sacrificial lamb, but it won't matter who it is except to determine whether Murphy's margin is 10 points, 20 points, or 30 points. |
Delaware
| Challender | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Lisa Rochester (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Given how many seats the Democrats need to defend in 2024, they are lucky that quite a few of them are safe. Delaware is in that category even though the retirement of Tom Carper has made it an open seat. The state's only representative, Lisa Blunt Rochester, will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee and also almost certainly the winner of the general election. |
Hawaii
| Incumbent | CHallenger | Notes Polls |
Mazie Hirono (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Hawaii is the bluest state in the Union, and Hirono has solid approval ratings. The only thing she has to fear is a challenge from the left. That didn't materialize last time and probably won't this time. She's safe. |
Maryland
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
|
Candidate unknown (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Ben Cardin would be 87 at the end of a new term and saw what is happening to Dianne Feinstein. He may not want to follow her down that road, so he will retire after this term. Maryland has boatloads of Democrats who would love his job. Rep. Jaime Raskin (D-MD) is the best known one, but he declined. There are plenty more. It will be a busy primary but not a nasty one because they all agree on overything except who should be the next senator from Maryland. No matter who wins the primary, the seat will stay blue. |
Massachusetts
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Warren has a huge national profile and is an incumbent in a very blue state. The only Republican who could possibly cause her to sweat is former governor Charlie Baker. If Baker doesn't run, she won't even have to bother campaigning. If he does, she will have to campaign since he has also won statewide election in Massachusetts. But she'll still win. |
Michigan
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Elissa Slotkin (D) |
Mike Rogers (R) |
Debbie Stabenow eked out a victory in her first Senate race, defeating incumbent Spencer Abraham (R) 49.5% to 48%. Since then, she's won by 16, 21, and 5 points, so she's clearly good at harnessing the power of incumbency. At 72, she could probably serve another two terms easily, but she decided to retire and won't run for reelection. The Democratic bench in Michigan is loaded. The governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and AG are all Democrats. So are seven members of the U.S. House and 20 members of the state Senate. So far, only one serious candidate has announced, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). The Democratic establishment appears to be quietly lining up behind Slotkin, so they may have quietly cleared the field for her. The Republicans have gotten former representative Mike Rogers to jump in. There will be primaries, but it is 95% certain that it will be Slotkin vs. Rogers. |
Minnesota
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Amy Klobuchar (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Amy Klobuchar is one of the most popular members of the Senate with an approval rating of 58%. She ran for president in 2020 and would probably consider it again if Joe Biden declines to run. If he wants another term, she will go for another term as well and get it easily. |
Montana 
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Jon Tester (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Montana is a tough state to get a read on. On one hand, Donald Trump won there by 17 points in 2020. The other senator, Steve Daines, is a Republican as are the governor and both representatives. Nevertheless, Tester has been elected to the Senate three times, so he is a good fit for the state. This race will be his toughest ever, with the Republicans doing absolutely everything to unseat him. There is likely to be a bitter Republican primary with Rep. Matt Rosendale vs. businessman Tim Sheehy. Rosendale is a leading member of the Freedom Caucus and the NRSC won't touch him with a barge pole, but if Donald Trump endorses him, he could win the nomination. The state legislature passed a new law to create a top-two primary, like California and Washington. The goal of this is get the Libertarian Party off the November ballot, in the hope hat libertarian voters then hold their noses and vote for the Republican. But this could backfire because on culture-war issues like abortion and gay rights, libertarians tend to align with the Democrats. |
Nevada
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Jacky Rosen (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Nevada is a bluish swing state. The voters just tossed out the Democratic governor and replaced him with a Republican. However, both senators are Democrats, three of the four House seats have Democrats sitting in them, and Democrats control both chambers of the state legislature. Rosen won her first try for the Senate in 2018 when she beat an incumbent (Dean Heller) by 5 points. She is certainly in a strong position in a presidential election year but no shoo-in, especially if former Nevada AG Adam Laxalt runs again, despite his loss in November to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). |
New Jersey
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
|
Candidate unknown (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
New Jersey hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1972, so this seat is likely to remain in Democratic hands next year. However, Bob Menendez has been connected to a shady eye doctor named Dr. Salomon Melgen, who is now a convicted felon, and Menendez was indicted for taking bribes from him. The trial resulted in a hung jury and the government decided to drop the case, so Menendez got off. The Senate Ethics Committee admonished Menendez. This year he was indicted for taking bribes and being an unregistered foreign agent for Egypt. He is being challenged by Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) and perhaps others. Menendez is toast but the seat will remain Democratic, either with Kim or some other Democrat in it. |
New Mexico
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Martin Heinrich (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Martin Heinrich's net approval rating is +14 points and New Mexico is a blue state. In 2022, the Republicans ran a TV weatherman (Mark Ronchetti) against Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) and she won by 6 points. Maybe he'll try for the Senate a second time (he also ran in 2020) and predict sunny weather. If he doesn't, the Republican bench in New Mexico is thin. Actually, even if he does, the Republican bench is thin. Heinrich should be able to hang on without too much sweating. |
New York
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Some New Yorkers haven't forgotten how Gillibrand personally drove then-senator Al Franken from the Senate and haven't forgiven her for that, but New York is a blue state and she should be able to win—unless Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) challenges her in a primary. That would be sight to see and Gillibrand might not win that. If AOC waits her turn, Gillibrand is safe. |
Ohio
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Ohio is becoming redder every year and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is going to have one tough race here. In 2022, Tim Ryan, who is a pretty good match for the state, was badly beaten by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH)l who is a very bad match for the state. Brown is a liberal, but one with strong populist leanings. He laments trade agreements, for example. Despite Ohio's red hue, Brown has won five statewide elections (two for secretary of state and three for the U.S. Senate) and it is always hard to beat a popular incumbent. Three Republicans are in. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, is in. So is Bernie Moreno, a wealthy car dealership owner. Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also in there. LaRose is better known than the two rich guys but can't afford to self fund. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is backing Moreno. Donald Trump hasn't endorsed yet. |
Pennsylvania
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Bob Casey (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Bob Casey is a moderate, which is a good match for this swing state. His net approval rating is +5, which is OK, but not great. On the other hand, he has won statewide election in Pennsylvania six times as auditor general, treasurer, and senator. Pennsylvania Republicans seem to have trouble putting up decent candidates. They have convinced wealthy businessman David McCormick, who lives in Connecticut, to run again. In 2022, he lost the primary to Mehmet Oz. McCormick could draw challengers though. |
Rhode Island
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) |
Candidate Unknown (R) |
Rhode Island is one of the bluest states in the country, with a grand total of zero Republicans holding office at the state and federal levels. Whitehouse won his last Senate race by 23 points. So, there's not much drama here. Whitehouse will get another term. |
Virginia
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Tim Kaine has solid approval numbers with a net approval of +9 points. Yes, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) was elected governor in 2021, but that may be a fluke due to the Democrats running a somewhat sleazy candidate. Kaine has won statewide election in Virginia four times and unless the Republicans can pull a rabbit out of a hat and find a sterling candidate, Kaine will surely win a fifth time in 2024. |
Washington
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Maria Cantwell is an outspoken opponent of Donald Trump, and has hewed to a Bernie Sanders-style party line, including a $15 minimum wage, aggressive protections for the environment, and healthcare for all. All of this makes her very popular in Washington, and an overwhelming favorite to be elected to a fifth term. The other Washington senator, Patty Murray (D-WA), won her 2022 contest by 18 points. Cantwell is a shoo-in for another term. |
West Virginia
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
|
Candidate unknown (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
West Virginia went for Donald Trump by a mind-boggling 40 points, which leaves Joe Manchin dead in the water, right? Probably. So he decided not to run for reelection, which means Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) will become Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV) in a bit over a year. The seat is irretrievably lost to the Democrats now. If he had run, he might have won, but it would have been a struggle against Justice, a coal billionaire and the richest man in West Virginia. |
Wisconsin
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Given Tammy Baldwin's middling approval rating (net +1 approval) and Wisconsin's position as the ultimate swing state, this one could be close. Of course, the Republicans need to find a really strong candidate to beat an incumbent two-term senator. Baldwin is openly lesbian, but that doesn't seem to matter much to the voters. In any event, she is definitely running for a third term. Despite the state's even balance, she won her 2012 race by 5 points and her 2018 race by 10 points, so she is probably the favorite to win again. |
Independent-held seats
Arizona
| Incumbent | Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
This one is very complicated. Sinema was elected as a Democrat, frustrated Joe Biden on just about everything, then in 2022 became an independent. Nobody knows what she is up to. Democrats are pretty sure she holds regular strategy meetings with Satan, though they are not clear how much she charges the Devil for her assistance. On Jan. 23, 2023, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) announced a Senate run. He is the strong favorite to get the Democratic nomination. In a three-way race, Sinema might be a spoiler and pull off enough Democratic votes to elect the Republican. On the other hand, some number of Republicans might vote for her because they like how she blocked Biden over and over. Maybe Sinema won't run at all. So far, she's not saying. Kari Lake has entered the Republican primary and will almost certainly dispatch Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. This will likely be the hottest Senate race this cycle, and not just due to the weather in Phoenix in August. |
Maine
| Incumbent | Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Angus King (I) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Angus King is very popular in Maine and, as an independent, can reasonably expect to get both Democratic and Republican votes. Of course, that means he can also reasonably expect to face both a Democratic and Republican challenger, all the way to the bitter end. The Democratic Party will probably nominate someone, because it's hard to keep some random Joe or Josephine from declaring, but not support that candidate at all. King is not as popular as that other New England independent, Bernie Sanders, but he has establishment support on both sides of the aisle, and is still a sure bet in November. |
Vermont
| Incumbent | Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Bernie Sanders (I) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Candidate unknown (R) |
Bernie Sanders is the single most popular senator in America, with a remarkable 63% approval rating. While Vermont's meteorolgical climate is very different from Hawaii's, its political climate is about the same. Bernie is as sure a shoo-in as they come. |
Republican-held seats
Florida
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Rick Scott (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Rick Scott was planning to run for president in 2024. He even drew up a platform. It included things like having Social Security and Medicare expire in 5 years unless Congress voted to keep them. That didn't go over real big, to put it mildly. That was the end of President Scott. Democrats will use that against him, but it probably won't be enough. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) won easily in 2022 against a strong challenger. Former representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is running for the Democratic nomination and will probably get it. It would probably take a huge blue wave to unseat the Senator. That said, if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for president, that could trigger said huge blue wave. |
Indiana
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
|
Candidate unknown (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) is running for governor, leaving an open seat here. The Republican primary will be a battle royale. Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), a strong Trumpist, is in and more are expected shortly. The Democrats could profit from the open seat if they can find a strong candidate. But their bench in Indiana is very thin, especially after Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg hightailed it to his husband's home state of Michigan. |
Mississippi
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Roger Wicker (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
There was a time when Democrats could win elections in Mississippi, even if they nominated a yellow dog, but then the Civil Rights Movement happened. The last time the state sent a Democrat to the Senate was in 1982, when John C. Stennis was elected to the final term of a career that began in 1947. Roger Wicker is going for his fourth term in 2024. He'll get it. |
Missouri
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Josh Hawley (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Josh Hawley has gone full-bore Trumper, no holds barred. Missouri used to be a swing state, but it has since become a red state. The Democrats ran a wealthy beer heiress (Trudy Busch Valentine) for the open seat in 2022 and lost badly against another Trumper, Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO). Unless the Democrats can find another, even better heiress in 2024, the same fate awaits them. |
Nebraska
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Deb Fischer (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Fischer has moderate approval ratings (44% approval vs. 38% disapproval) and is a decent fundraiser. The Democrats' problem is that they need to find a strong opponent. There aren't a lot of them in Nebraska. Maybe what the Democrats should do is dig up William Jennings Bryan and run him. |
Nebraska-special
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Pete Ricketts (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) was appointed to the seat left behind by Ben Sasse when he left to become president of the University of Florida. Now he has to compete in a special election to hold the seat. He has already won election twice for governor, so that shouldn't be so hard. |
North Dakota
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Kevin Cramer (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
North Dakota is an extremely red state now. It used to be more prarie-populist. At recently as 2018 it had a Democratic senator, Heidi Heitkamp, but she lost her reelection bid in 2018. Unless the Democrats can somehow find another strong prarie populist, Cramer will get a second term. Maybe, while they've got their shovels out for William Jenning Bryan, they could also dig up Quentin Burdick, who won six elections as a Democrat before dying in office. |
Tennessee
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Marsha Blackburn is not one of the smartest senators, but she is one of the Trumpiest. In Tennessee, that is good enough. Democrats do win occasionally in Tennessee. Phil Bredesen (D) served as governor from 2003 to 2011, but he lost to Blackburn in 2018. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Bredesen was their best hope and he wasn't good enough. |
Texas
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
Ted Cruz (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
A lot of Texans don't like Ted Cruz because he thinks first of what is good for Ted Cruz and second what is good for Texas. Well, actually, what is good for Ted Cruz is probably also second and third, but what is good for Texas is a solid fourth. Or maybe fifth. Beto O'Rourke came within 2½ points of beating him in 2018, but Cruz ultimately won. Since then, Cruz probably hasn't become any more popular, in part because everyone knows he is just using the Senate as a stepping stone to run for president. However, Donald Trump is so far ahead in the primary polling, Cruz is unlikely to jump in at the last minute. Still, the chances of any Democrat winning any statewide race in Texas are very low. Two Democrats, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) (who is Black), and Roland Gutierrez (who is Latino) have announced their candidacies so far. It could be a nasty primary. Democrats don't want it, but they are stuck with it. |
Utah
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes Polls |
|
Candidate unknown (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
Mitt Romney is quite popular in Utah. If he wanted another term, he could have it easily. But he doesn't want it and is not running for reelection. So Utah will have an open seat race in 2024. The race will probably be decided in the Republican primary, where one or more Trumpists will be competing with one or more non-Trumpists. |
Wyoming
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes Polls |
John Barrasso (R) |
Candidate unknown (D) |
And finally, it's the biggest slam dunk of them all for the Republicans. Wyoming is ruby red, and Barasso has won his
Senate elections by 55, 54, and 36 points, respectively. Barrasso could beat up a reporter the night before the
election, and then get caught in bed with a live boy, a dead girl, and a goat, and he'd still win. The Democrats will
have to hunt high and low to see if they can find a party member who lives in Wyoming and is willing to run. It could be
tough. Is reader R.L.D. in Sundance interested?
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