Main page    Dec. 22

Pres map
Previous | Next | Senate page

New polls: (None)
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: (None)

A Win for the White House, Part I: Biden & Co. Garner Praise for Venezuela Exchange

The White House scored a pretty big diplomatic victory this week, negotiating a prisoner exchange with the administration of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.

At the center of the exchange is Colombian businessman Alex Saab, a Maduro ally who was awaiting trial in the United States on charges of having laundered $350 million moving from Venezuela to the U.S. The Trump administration invested enormous resources in capturing Saab in 2020; in addition to the alleged money laundering, it was believed that he had/has intelligence on Maduro that would be useful to the U.S. Although he agreed to cooperate, he apparently has not shared any dirt.

The previous paragraph is a fair summary of what is publicly known about Saab, and the United States' interest in him. The narrative doesn't exactly hang together very well, though, so keep in mind that it's very possible there is more to the story that remains unknown (and maybe classified). For example, Saab may be considerably more dangerous or problematic than "big-time money launderer" would seem to suggest. Alternatively, he may have given up all the information he has to give, and the U.S. could be keeping quiet on that so that Saab doesn't end up "falling" out a window when he returns to Venezuela.

In any event, Joe Biden granted clemency to Saab and returned him to Venezuela. In exchange, the White House secured the release of 10 Americans and 20+ Venezuelans held in captivity in that nation, as well as the extradition of arms dealer Leonard Francis, who used to weigh 350 pounds, and so has the nickname "Fat Leonard." Nearly all media outlets are using that nickname liberally in their coverage; maybe they shouldn't do that.

From where we sit, an arms dealer is a greater danger than a money launderer, so even a one-for-one swap looks like a win. Then, when you add in the 30+ others, it looks like an even bigger win. That said, we are hardly experts on these matters, so we went looking for opinions from those who are better informed. The nation's Republicans, of course, are uniformly critical of the swap because, after all, it is the work of the Biden administration. The victims and their families, of course, are uniformly supportive of the swap. But we managed to find some third parties who have expertise in this area, and they almost all seem to agree with us that this was a win for the White House. For example, Jonathan Franks, who works for a think tank/consulting firm focused on people held unlawfully, said:

I have got to give the administration credit. They have done an amazing job. This is a historic deal.

I think that they—those who say that this was a tough decision to send Mr. Saab home don't know much about what Mr. Saab is accused of or the collateral damage that that prosecution caused.

So, a 10-for-1 deal, 10 Americans for one, plus 20 Venezuelan souls, is a heck of a deal. The president had a moral obligation, and I'm proud of him for doing it.

If that is not a glowing review, we don't know what is.

In any case, this presages better relations with Venezuela, which could pay dividends in terms of future exchanges, or oil sales, or in other ways. Will it benefit Biden politically? We doubt it, since it's pretty inside baseball, and since there will be a hundred things between now and the election that push this out of people's minds. But you never know. (Z)

A Win for the White House, Part II: Obamacare Continues to Grow

Obamacare is the signature policy accomplishment of the Barack Obama administration, of course. It also looms pretty large on Joe Biden's political résumé as well, since he was a key figure in the negotiations over the original package as VP, and then has worked aggressively to expand the program as president.

This being the case, it's no surprise that the White House did some crowing this week over the huge number of people signing up for insurance under Obamacare. The total number for 2023 is already 16 million, which is a record; once the deadline arrives (Jan. 16), that number is expected to grow to 19 million. On Dec. 15 alone, 745,000 people signed up, which is a record for a single day.

On Wednesday, the White House issued a statement on the matter. It begins:

The Affordable Care Act is more popular than ever, and Affordable Care Act coverage is more affordable than ever. More Americans have signed up for health care coverage through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces than ever before. With nearly a month left in open enrollment, more than 19 million people have signed up for coverage, breaking all previous records. Enrollment has grown by more than 7 million people since I took office.

Obviously, Biden hopes to make this a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign. How well that will work for him is anyone's guess. Stories about Republicans who use Obamacare, but nonetheless hate those infernal socialist Democrats, are practically a genre unto themselves.

This weekend, we had a letter from reader D.E. in Austin, talking about some of the serious problems with Obamacare insurance. But is that the fault of Obamacare in general, or of Texas' implementation of Obamacare? We thought we would ask readers to write in about their experiences with the program. We'll run some responses next week. (Z)

My Successor Vinny? Think Again, Kevin McCarthy

When a long-serving and/or powerful member of Congress stands down, they customarily try to pass the torch to a preferred successor. Former speaker, and soon-to-be-former representative, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) tried to pull that off, too. And, in a poetically appropriate capstone to his career, he failed.

The fellow to whom McCarthy hoped to yield his seat is Vince Fong (R), who used to work for McCarthy, and who is now a member of the California state Assembly. Fong dithered on running for the House, filed for reelection to his Assembly seat, and then—after state Sen. Shannon Grove (R) decided to pass on the House race—changed course and filed to run to replace McCarthy. Small problem: California law forbids a candidate from running for two offices at once, and also forbids them from withdrawing their candidacy for office after the filing deadline (Dec. 15 this year). So, for Fong, it's reelection to the state Assembly or nothing. He says he will sue, but the law is clear and has survived challenges before.

At the moment, then, there are six declared candidates for the seat:

If this is the final field, then expect Boudreaux and Wood to advance; the former has already won elections in this geographical area, the latter advanced last time and lost to McCarthy.

It's really quite a fall for the former Speaker. He was the most powerful person in Congress 6 months ago, and one of the half-dozen most powerful people in the country. Now he's gone, he won't have a protégé replacing him, and many of his closest allies (like Patrick McHenry, R-NC) will soon depart, as well. All of this will make McCarthy oh-so-marketable when it comes to those sweet, sweet lobbying gigs. (Z)

Ron DeSantis: A Brain of Clay

We don't know exactly where self-awareness comes from, so we're just going to assume it's the brain. Whatever part, or sub-part, of the body it is, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) clearly doesn't have it.

We write that because the Governor was on the Christian Broadcast Network, and was asked if he had any regrets about his campaign, which is clearly on life support. DeSantis had just one:

I mean, I would say if I could have one thing change, I wish Trump hadn't been indicted on any of this stuff. I mean, honestly, I, I think that, you know, from Alvin Bragg on, I've criticized the cases. I think, you know, someone like a Bragg would not have brought that case if it was anyone other than Donald Trump. And so, you know, someone like that's distorting justice, which is bad. But I also think it distorted the primary. And I think it's it's been, it's been those have kind of been the main issues that have happened.

First of all, how can a candidate for president be so clumsy with extemporaneous speaking? Second, the ONLY thing that went wrong with DeSantis' campaign is that one of the OTHER candidates got indicted (four times)? But for that, DeSantis would be sitting on top of the world right now? Seriously? Does even DeSantis believe the things he says?

The general presumption these days, as Donald Trump gets closer to effectively locking down the nomination, is that DeSantis (and Nikki Haley) are running for 2028. But if DeSantis can't self-reflect and course-correct, then he's not going to do any better in 4 years than he's doing now. In fact, he'll probably do worse, since now all his weaknesses are well known. And boy howdy, he does not seem like a person capable of ANY self-reflection. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Hail, Cannon

We had some pretty good guesses for this week's headline theme. For example, reader P.M. in Edenton, NC proposed: "All of your TV shows are in Tommy Westphall's head!" and passed along this article that may be of interest to people who get that reference.

That's not the correct guess, however. For the correct answer, we give you reader N.S. in Los Angeles, CA:

These are all shows that had spinoff TV shows: So far, the others you listed as not qualifying for the theme have no spinoffs, though I'd eagerly watch a Frank Reynolds (Always Sunny) backstory show.

The Sopranos is iffy, as you wrote, because there is a spinoff film (The Many Saints of Newark), but not a TV show.

I've gotta say, the Sopranos hint made me think it was related to the often-argued about final episode and its ending. That threw me off course for a good half hour.

As usual, great puzzle. Thank you for giving my brain the extra exercise first thing in the morning.

Great breakdown, and glad you liked it! We'll only add a couple of things: (1) We tried to choose shows where the spinoff itself was very notable; the only spinoff noted by N.S. in Los Angeles that is different from the one we had in mind is that Project Greenlight begat Project Runway and Top Chef and (2) Cannon, which appears in the headline for this item, spun off Barnaby Jones.

Here are the first 20 readers to write in with the correct answer:

  1. D.L. in Uslar, Germany
  2. S.T. in Ocean Grove, NJ
  3. M.W. in Boston, MA
  4. R.D. in Cheshire, CT
  5. J.N. in Zionsville, IN
  6. E.P. in Long Beach, CA
  7. K.W. in Lafayette, IN
  8. J.S. in Germantown, OH
  9. S.F. in Hutto, TX
  10. N.H. in London, England UK
  11. F.W. in Franklin, WV
  12. N.S. in Los Angeles
  13. J.H. in Lake Forest, CA
  14. M.Z. in Sharon, MA
  15. B.P. in Arlington Heights, IL
  16. M.C. in Indianapolis, IN
  17. S.K. in Drexel Hill, PA
  18. M.W. in Newington, CT
  19. L.A.J. in Bourbonnais, IL
  20. D.E. in Lancaster, PA

Today's theme, meanwhile, would definitely belong in the Trivial Pursuit category "History." The hint is that the theme is almost too obvious for a site like ours, in the same way as the political parties a few weeks ago. If you have a guess, send it here. (Z)

A December to Rhymember, Part XV: Some Crisp Verse

Today's theme is limericks, and since they are short, we're going to give you three of them. Taking the lead is M.K. in Franklin, WI:

The former guy's wrongs are legion
'Gainst decency, law and religion
He acts with impunity
And seeks immunity
Will Hair Furor escape life in prison?

Next is M.K. in Austin, TX:

When I turn on the TV for news,
It really gives me the blues.
An hour of mass shootings
And bombings and lootings,
And I still don't know sh** about what's going on in the world.

And finally, M.H. in Council Grove, KS:

I just don't understand MAGA
Their line of thinking is gaga
They are in a cult
And in love with a dolt
When will the end be for this saga?

More next week; submissions go here. Or, again, you can just send them to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line "December Poetry." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Does "Trump International" Ring a Bell?

As far as Democratic political insiders go, the Waldorf Astoria in downtown Washington is the hottest spot in town. It's a great place to get tea, in the grand atrium. Or, if something a little colder is wanted, then maybe one of the champagne selections at José Andrés' restaurant Bazaar (where food options include crab croquettes, steamed pork belly, Chinese buns and Spanish octopus). Or there's also sushi at Sushi Nakazawa.

Of course, it's a hotel, so there are also meeting rooms, which are often packed with gatherings hosted by various Democratic groups. And there are the actual rooms, which host hundreds of Democratic dignitaries and guests nightly. Fortunately for all involved, it's easy enough to stay on top of the latest news, as the hotel's TVs are tuned to MSNBC and CNN.

This is rather a sea change from a year or so ago, when the hotel was still Trump International D.C. Back then, the guests were all Republicans (mostly MAGA types) and/or people looking to make nice with Donald Trump, the TVs were all tuned to Fox, and the food... well, we don't know for sure, but our guess is that there weren't a lot of orders for Spanish octopus or crab croquettes.

The shift in clientele is due, in part, to ownership that knows that D.C. is a predominantly Democratic city, and that is the correct demographic to target. But it's also due to schadenfreude; quite a few visitors are there, in part, to stick it to the former president. "This is like a 'fu** you' to Trump," said one visitor who talked to Politico, while carrying a Joe Biden tote and deciding on which champagne he'd drink.

The only real question here is, what part of this do you think is most galling to Trump?

It's probably a tie between all of the above.

Thanks, incidentally, to reader D.S. in Oakton VA for bringing this item to our attention. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: I'm Dreaming of White Christmas?

Christmas is a couple of days away, and in honor of the occasion, we've decided to run some Christmas letters from over a century ago. It's not an overtly political item, and yet Christmas has become politicized, so we think it is OK to run with it on our politically themed site. And with that out of the way:

Dear Santa Claus, I can't write good enough, so Mamma will write for me. I want a steam engine, a good express wagon, a hobby horse, and a writing desk, some candy. I'll hang my stocking on the bed. You had better bring Mamma and Papa something and little brother a rattle. So goodbye. If you can't bring me all of these things bring me what you can. I live on 394 Moxahala Avenue.


Dear Santa, I am eight years old. I go to the Academy school. My teacher is Miss McFadden. I want a pair of shoes, a gun to shoot rats with, for we have got some, a drum and a wagon, candy and nuts, and bring me everything that is nice. I am an orphan. My papa is dead. I live with my aunt. She will buy me some nice things too. I have got three little brothers. Bring them something, too.


Dear Santa Claus, I want a piano and stool, a blackboard, a little stove, a little wooden bucket, a doll, a set of dishes, a dresser, a little swing like Gertie's, a rocking chair, a little lamp like Gertie's, some picture books, a chain bracelet, a little gold ring, a little tub, a wringer, and a clothes horse, a little parasol, a pair of scissors, a Christmas tree with candles, nuts, bananas, and oranges.


Dear Santa Claus, I thought I would write and tell you what I want for Christmas. I want a pair of side combs, some pink ribbon, and a plaid dress, and I want a big doll, some candy, peanuts, and oranges. Well, goodbye for this time, goodbye till Christmas. I am in the Third reader. I am ten years old.


Dear Santa Claus, I am going to write you a letter to tell you just what I want. I want a doll, a little red rocking chair and some candy, a sack of peanuts, and some bananas. I am three years old.

It's interesting what has changed... and what hasn't. Merry Christmas, all! (Z)


Previous | Next

Main page for smartphones

Main page for tablets and computers