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Biden: Trump's an Insurrectionist

It took less than a day for Joe Biden to chime in about the Colorado Supreme Court ruling. He said that Donald Trump is now definitely an insurrectionist since a state Supreme Court has ruled that way. Biden also said: "You saw it all. Whether the Fourteenth Amendment applies or not, we'll let the court make that decision. But he certainly supported an insurrection. There's no question about it. None. Zero. And he seems to be doubling down on it."

This is the first time Biden has clearly and unambiguously said Trump supported an insurrection against the United States. He has called Trump a threat to democracy before, but this goes further than his previous positions. In the past, he merely said that Trump believes in the unchecked power of the president to do whatever he wants to, with no person or part of the government telling him he can't do that. In the past, Biden referred to the MAGA philosophy as semi-fascism, but he didn't call Trump an insurrectionist. Now the gloves have come off.

The Colorado Republican Party also reacted to the Colorado Supreme Court decision. It said that if Trump is banned from the ballot, it would hold a state caucus and award the delegates based on the caucus, making the primary irrelevant. A change from a primary to a caucus would not be easy. To start with, the RNC would have to approve. Next, the state party has to pay for a caucus, and in a state with a medium-sized but spread-out population, that could be expensive. Planning a caucus would take time. The primary is scheduled for March 5, 2024. It is doubtful the party could organize a caucus by then, which means the caucus would probably take place after the primary. Good luck explaining to Colorado Republicans that yes, we know you already voted in the primary, but we want you to come to the caucus and vote again.

That said, it is not like caucuses are unheard of in Colorado. The state used to have them, but switched to a primary in 2020, so a caucus merely reverts to the old style. Nevada is already scheduled to have both a primary and a caucus, so Colorado wouldn't be unique if it had both. (V)

Young People Are Losing Faith in Democracy

When a reporter for The Washington Post asked people at a Donald Trump rally about his plans to govern as a retribution-seeking authoritarian, some of them just brushed it off with "Trump being Trump." Some said his remark about being dictator for a day was a joke. Others said they would actually welcome a strongman who tramples democracy. This is what Liz Cheney referred to as "sleepwalking into dictatorship."

These reports are just anecdotes, but there are also polling data to show these views are not isolated exceptions. While three-quarters of Americans think democracy is the best system of government, one in five in Gen Z and millennials (ages 18-41) say that dictatorship could be good in certain circumstances.

This result is not new, but it is getting worse since the 1990s. Young people have always been less enthusiastic about democracy than older people, but the gap is bigger than ever now. Part of the explanation is that younger people did not live through World War II or the Cold War and do not understand what a real dictatorship is like. Instead they are experiencing perpetual gridlock where government can't do anything to improve their lives. They also observe that they can't get a good job or buy a home as easily as their parents. They also feel the government is powerless to deal with climate change and school shootings. If this form of government is useless and can't help them or solve any problems, then why keep it? Of course, when they fantasize about a dictator, they are envisioning a dictator who does what they want, not the opposite of what they want.

Exit polls in 2020 showed that Joe Biden beat Trump by 20 points among young voters. However, a new NBC poll shows young voters favoring Trump by 4 points. A new Siena College poll shows that the war in the Middle East is having a real toll on Biden's popularity. Among young voters, Trump leads Biden 49% to 43%. These are only two polls with small subsamples, but 4 years ago, Biden had strong double-digit leads over Trump among young voters. Even one poll like this is shocking. In one poll, 70% of voters under 35 disapproved of Biden's handling of the war.

The Biden campaign understands this and is trying to make it more concrete to younger voters by framing the issue as authoritarians trying to take away their rights, for example, the right to an abortion and the right to be safe from gun violence. What the Oct. 7 attack and Israeli response did is cause a huge fracture in the Democratic Party, something no other issue has done. Biden can't suddenly change his stance or it will anger many older voters. Hamas might be happy that Biden might get his ears pinned back as a result of his support for Israel, but it will surely not be happy with what might come next. Trump and Bibi Netanyahu are buddies and if Trump wins, Netanyahu will be completely unleashed and neither Hamas nor the young voters are going to like what they see.

NBC sent reporters out to interview young voters to see how they feel about Biden. Some of them said they would not vote for Biden due to his support for Israel. One 23-year-old man in Wisconsin said: "I genuinely could not live with myself if I voted for someone who's made the decisions that Biden has." The reporter did not ask him what he expected a president Trump to do about the Middle East. That might have been a good follow-up question, but it wasn't asked.

A 24-year-old woman in California said: "It's so complicated, because it almost feels like if I were to give my vote for Biden, I will be showing the Democratic Party that what they are putting out is enough, which is the bare minimum in my opinion." These people are viewing the election as an up-or-down vote of approval for Biden and the Democrats, rather than a choice between two alternatives. Older voters better understand the concept of picking the lesser of two evils rather than voting as a way to make a statement. Biden really needs to frame the election as a choice between two candidates, not a vote to approve/disapprove how he is doing his job.

A 25-year-old man in Colorado bemoaned the fact that Biden made big promises and didn't follow through. He said: "I mean, he could have codified Roe v. Wade, he could have stood up for the rights of people all over the country, he could have done a lot of things, but he didn't." In reality, of course, no president could have codified Roe v. Wade. Only Congress can do that and there wasn't even a majority among Democrats for that, let alone the entire Congress. But the young voter doesn't know that and he is going to punish Biden for it by voting for a third-party candidate.

While the economy is improving on all metrics economists use, a 26-year-old woman in Nevada said she didn't see it, "Not even a little bit, and I'm living it firsthand." Her family of five lives paycheck to paycheck. She is also planning to vote for a third-party candidate.

A number of young voters brought up Biden's promise to cancel student debt. In fact, he tried, but the Supreme Court ruled that he had no authority to do that, and Congress is not interested in doing it. Again, not all young voters follow the news enough to know that Biden did try and another branch of government said: "Nope." Biden has canceled student debt for a limited number of people, but not nearly as many as he promised. Again, young voters, especially those who don't follow the news, don't distinguish between politicians who promise something, actually try to do it, and get swatted down by one of the other branches and politicians who never even try to make good on their promises. (V)

The House Held 724 Votes but Passed Only 27 Laws

The view that many young people have that the government can't do anything does have a solid basis in reality, however. In 2023, the House took 724 votes but passed only 27 laws. That could be viewed as a 3.7% yield and not terribly productive. The problem is that while Republicans have a majority, the Freedom Caucus opposes the rest of their party on almost everything, so there is no functional majority on practically anything. To start with, the first 15 votes were for electing a speaker, back in January. It went downhill from there, including three votes to expel "George Santos."

The current House session has been exceedingly unproductive. By way of contrast, in 2022, the House held 549 votes and passed 248 bills. These included the infrastructure law, the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPs Act, a minor gun-safety law, and more. Also, in 2013, when Republicans controlled the House and Democrats controlled the Senate, just as now, the House passed 72 bills that the Senate accepted and which were signed into law by Barack Obama.

Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said: "Democrats as a party are much more interested in having government do things. A lot of what Republicans are motivated by is the pursuit of ideological purity." This doesn't lead to many laws being passed.

In case you are an optimist and more interested in the success than the failures, here are the 27 successful votes and what they did:

Pretty impressive list of laws, no? Your tax dollars at work, as they say. At least the House respects veterans, assuming you count renaming VA facilities as respect for veterans. Maybe young voters may have noticed that the House is totally nonfunctional more clearly than older voters have. Only they are putting the blame in the wrong place. (V)

Biden's Neglect of Rural Black Voters May Cost Him Georgia

Joe Biden carried Georgia in 2020 by 11,779 votes, as you have surely heard. People on the ground there now say he could lose it in 2024, though.

In particular, Biden did well among rural Black voters in 2020. Even though their counties went heavily for Trump, in statewide elections, every vote counts, no matter where it is. While everyone talks about the importance of Fulton County, the heavy Black vote for Biden in rural counties definitely reduced Trump's margin in those counties and propelled Biden to victory statewide. These voters are souring on Biden. It is the same problem as with young voters: What have you done for me lately?

Kyla Johnson (19), who lives in the tiny central Georgia town of Fort Valley, told a reporter outside a Dollar General store that she wasn't going to vote in 2024. Her friend, Zayln Young (18), said she would consider voting, but had complaints that she couldn't get food stamps (SNAP) (because students who get some meals from school are ineligible). In the rest of Peach County, home to Fort Valley, one-third of Black residents are living below the poverty line. In contrast, only 16% of whites in the county are below the poverty line. A social worker, Kem Harris, was there to buy some toiletries and toothpaste for students who couldn't afford them.

Poor Black voters like these know they form the backbone of the Democratic Party, but feel that Biden has been taking them for granted for too long and are losing interest in him. A state organizer for Black Voters Matter, Melinee Calhoun, said: "It's: We did what we were asked to do, and nothing has changed." It's not that Biden has done nothing. For example, the infrastructure bill, which Republicans opposed, has $2.2 billion in help for Black farmers, but voters are not aware of it. They are also not aware of the $9 billion in the infrastructure bill for roads, bridges, airports, and public transit in Georgia. The money in the bill will not only improve the infrastructure in Georgia, but will create jobs making the improvements.

In rural Georgia, Democrats are simply not visible, despite the state being a priority. When rural Black voters hear about Biden, he is talking about saving democracy, which they regard as far from their daily lives. Whipping up fears of Donald Trump as an autocrat doesn't make much of an impression on these voters.

In the local Fort Valley barber and beauty shop, many clients hate Trump, but their lives have gotten harder due to inflation. They felt things were better when Trump was president, with those stimulus checks. Now they have stopped and the cost of food is up. Jobs are limited. Many Black people are forced to choose among working menial jobs at local businesses owned by a handful of white Republican families, fast food restaurants, or Walmart. Reading that Biden is sending billions of dollars to Israel to bomb Gaza doesn't go over well.

Voter enthusiasm is critical in Georgia, where Republican officials have worked hard on voter suppression, including efforts to remove voters from the rolls. Unless these voters, the poorest in the country, make a determined effort to overcome the barriers and vote, Biden could lose Georgia, no matter how well he does in booming Atlanta. (V)

Will California Follow Colorado?

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D-CA) has now called for California Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) to remove Donald Trump from the California primary ballot. If nothing else, a decision to ban Trump would absolutely force the Supreme Court to take up the case, as California has more delegates to the Republican National Convention than any other state. Having those delegates go to any candidate(s) other than Trump would have a huge impact.

Kounalakis said: "California must stand on the right side of history. The Colorado decision can be the basis for a similar decision here in our state. The Constitution is clear: you must be 35 years old and not be an insurrectionist."

Weber gets the first call here. If she decides that Trump is ineligible, she will announce that and Trump will sue. Given the time schedule, the case might go directly to the California Supreme Court. There is a bit of a hurry here. The deadline for finalizing the ballot candidates is a week from today, on Dec. 28. If Weber plans to act, she has only a few days to do it. If two state Supreme Courts were to rule that Trump is ineligible to be on the ballot and write-in votes for him are not to be counted, SCOTUS would absolutely be forced to do something. If John Roberts really didn't want to get involved, he and his eight colleagues could rule: "Elections are run by the states. The federal government has no role here." However, that is very unlikely since the issue is the meaning of Sec. 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment. What the Constitution actually means is very much a federal issue, no matter how much Roberts would like to toss the hot potato right back at the states.

The problem with this game is that both sides can play it. Texas also has a highly partisan lieutenant governor, Dan Patrick (R), and now he has suggested removing Joe Biden from the Texas ballot. Patrick falsely said that Biden has allowed 8 million undocumented people to cross the border since he was president and somehow that counts as an insurrection. Even in Texas that is not likely to fly. Nice try, Dan. A case could conceivably be made that failure to enforce immigration laws is a dereliction of duty and thus is an impeachable offense, but this has nothing to do with joining an insurrection. As it turns out, you don't have to be a constitutional scholar to get elected to be (lieutenant) governor of Texas. There is a bit of history on that. (V)

The War in the Middle East Expands to California

Three big-name Democrats are running for the open Senate seat in California. Up until now, Reps. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Katie Porter (D-CA) supported Israel's right to defend itself, pretty much in line with Joe Biden's position. In contrast, the progressive and always anti-war Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) has been calling for a (permanent) ceasefire.

That has now changed, with Porter swapping positions. In a 400-word statement she is now calling for a ceasefire as well. Schiff, who is Jewish, hasn't budged in his support for Israel. This change of heart could result in progressive Democrats splitting their votes over Porter and Lee, which might help Schiff. On the other hand, some progressives who previously didn't like Porter's position might now vote for her. Such votes would probably come out of Lee's hide, though, not Schiff's.

Lee is now attacking Porter because her new position is calling for a conditional ceasefire. Among the conditions are Hamas releasing all the hostages and a democratic government in Gaza free from Hamas. Lee's position is an unconditional ceasefire now. Dealing with the hostages can come later, if Hamas is interested in doing so, potentially in return for some benefits. So, in effect, each candidate now has a unique position. Lee wants an unconditional ceasefire, Porter wants a conditional ceasefire, and Schiff does not want any ceasefire now. (V)

The South Will Rise Again--in 2030

Every year, the Census Bureau releases its projections for the population at the next census. On Tuesday, the most recent one came out. There are 335 million people living in the U.S. now. The Bureau is projecting continuing migration from the Northeast and Midwest to the South. By the 2030 census, this is going to have a huge effect on the composition of the House and the Electoral College. Here are the projected changes from the current situation.

Projected changes to House seats in 2030

The effect is dramatic. The blue states are huge losers and the red states are winners. The two biggest losers are California (-4) and New York (-3). The biggest winners are Texas (+4) and Florida (+3). All in all, states that Joe Biden won in 2020 will lose 11 House seats and 11 electoral votes. States that Donald Trump won will gain 11 House seats and 11 electoral votes. Obviously, this appears to be very good news for the Republicans.

On closer inspection, the consequences are not quite so stark, however. Among the winners are Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. If the people coming there are coming from blue states—and according to the map, that is where they are coming from—they don't usually check their political views at the door when they enter. This means that all three states are likely to become bluer. If Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina all become blue states, it will be much harder for Republicans to win presidential elections, even with Texas and Florida having seven more electoral votes. Flipping North Carolina alone will be worth 17 electoral votes for the Democrats. That more than makes up for all the other losses. Also, if Arizona and Georgia solidify as blue states, the Republicans are going to have a very hard time winning presidential elections.

If we ignore the possibility of any states flipping and just assume that all states in 2032 go the same way as they did in 2020, we get different electoral vote totals, of course. In 2020, the Democrat won 306 EVs and the Republican won 232 EVs. As a result of the 2020 census, if all the states go the same way in 2024 as they did in 2020, that will be 303/235 Democrat/Republican. With the new EVs projected for 2030, the Democrat will get 292 and the Republican will get 246 in the 2032 election, still a win for the Democrat. And if North Carolina flips, it becomes 309 for the Democrat and 229 for the Republican.

In the House, it is different. A small influx of Yankees into North Carolina gets the Democrats 17 electoral votes but not 17 new house seats. That depends very much on gerrymandering. In Texas and Florida, the seven new House seats will all be Republican unless gerrymandering is abolished by 2030. In North Carolina, the gerrymandering is severe enough that a small population change won't flip the badly gerrymandered state legislature. California uses an independent commission, but the Democrats have so many House seats that the four they lose are likely to be mostly or all Democratic seats. The New York legislature will try to make sure at least two of the lost seats are red seats.

One final note here. While North Carolina and Georgia are probably going to pick up people predominantly from the Northeast, Arizona is more likely to get folks from the Midwest, including many Republicans. Consequently, it may not go blue as fast as North Carolina and Georgia. And of course, it is 6 years before reapportionment kicks in, and a lot can change in 6 years. (V)

Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss Sue Rudy Giuliani--AGAIN

Some people just don't learn. After a jury ordered Donald Trump to pay E. Jean Carroll $5 million for defaming her, what did he do? He defamed her again and she added his latest comments to her pending lawsuit. In January, a jury is likely to really stick it to him, especially after the $148 million award to Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss as a result of Rudy Giuliani lying about them and destroying their lives.

So, what did Giuliani do after HIS decision was announced? Say he was sorry he ruined the two women's lives? Nope, he channeled his master and defamed them again. So the two women sued Giuliani again. As we note above, some people never learn.

In Giuliani's case, it doesn't really matter. He doesn't have $148 million, and after Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic are through with him, he won't have anything. Suppose the two Georgia women get an award of another $148 million, it doesn't make a lot of difference financially, although seeing him smacked down again will surely be emotionally satisfying.

With Trump, it is actually different. He could just have paid the $5 million to Carroll and moved on. Now with the $148 million Georgia decision in the news, the jury could realistically hit Trump with, say, a $150 million award. He has that kind of money and because some of it is tied up in very visible real estate, it could be seized and auctioned off. For Giuliani, an award of $296 million is no different than an award of $148 million, but for Trump $155 million is hugely different than $5 million.

Minutes after filing the second defamation suit, Michael Gottlieb, Moss and Freeman's lawyer, asked the judge to allow the plaintiffs to start collecting now, before Giuliani empties his bank accounts and hides the money. Normally, there is a 30-day grace period before collection starts, but judges can choose to end it earlier if they think the defendant is going to hide assets. And, in this case, the judge agreed to do just that. In her opinion yesterday, Judge Beryl Howell ruled that Giuliani's claims of poverty are "difficult to square with the fact that Giuliani affords a spokesperson, who accompanied him daily to trial." So now Moss and Freeman's team are already busy trying to uncover Giuliani's assets before he can hide them.

Fortunately for Freeman and Moss, some of Giuliani's assets will be hard to hide. He has an apartment on 66th St. in Manhattan he is trying to sell. Giuliani also owns a condo in Florida and has numerous bank accounts at New York banks. He can wire all the money from those accounts to a bank in Panama or the Cayman Islands, but banks keep records of that sort of thing and a judge could order him to wire the money back and conceivably find him in contempt of court if he refuses. (V)

A December to Rhymember, Part XIV: Priorities!

Today, a submission from J.L. in Walnut Creek, CA that complements a couple of today's items:

Sick (is the American Electorate)

"I cannot vote for Trump today!"
Said voters in the USA.
"He is a braggart and a bore,
And boasts of things we should abhor.
His skin is orange, his hair is fake,
He pours ketchup on fancy steak.
His science knowledge is defective,
His faulty cures are not protective.
Bleach injections? UV light?
The nation's health he doth benight.
His racist friends are Nazi-like,
His racist words from out the Reich.
He disdains Black people, Chinese, Hispanics,
He only wants the white Germanics.
He wants to make the nation be
A not-so-free autocracy.
With him a king by divine right
Allowed to punish just for spite.
Russian agent, Putin's dog,
Seeks to install our own gulag,
To stash people whose only crime
Is rightly judging him a slime.
And to the law he stands athwart,
He's been indicted in the courts
For stealing many secret docs
And tryin' to cheat the ballot box.
He is the truly worst-est guy!
A creep like him deserves to fry!
His sins are unforgivaable!
He....what?
What's that? What's that I'm told?
You say Joe Biden is old?
Ok. Trump it is. I'm sold."

Two or three more tomorrow; submissions go here. Or you can just send them to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line "December Poetry." (Z)


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