The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):

• 12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
• 22 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 31 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones following.

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Democratic-held seats

Alabama   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Doug Jones (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Doug Jones will fight like hell to keep his seat but unless the Republicans nominate another child molester, like they did last time, Jones is in big trouble in deep red Alabama. The interesting battle here will be in the Republican primary. Every Republican in Alabama knows that whoever wins the primary will almost certainly be the next senator from the Yellowhammer State, so it could be wild and woolly. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL) is already in, and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is likely to join him despite not actually being from Alabama (he only has to live in the state for one day to qualify). Former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, who has no political experience, has also entered the race, on the theory that "Hey, it worked for Donald Trump." Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) may return for a second go-round, having finished third in his party's primary in 2017. And Roy Moore is also contemplating another run, presumably on the theory that voters will have forgotten his history of sexual predation. Jones' only chance is that a difficult GOP primary produces a flawed, damaged, and broke nominee, such that the combination of black voters and suburban women pulls him just over the finish line.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chris Coons (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Chris Coons had the pleasure of running against Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell in a 2010 special election to fill the Senate seat that was vacated by Joe Biden when he became Vice President. In 2014, he won a full term by beating Kevin Wade (R) by 14 points. He will coast to an equally easy win in 2020. Delaware is a very blue state and the Republicans have no bench at all there, so he can serve another five or six terms in the Senate if he wants to.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Dick Durbin (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Dick Durbin is minority whip, the second most powerful position in the Senate Democratic caucus. He is also from a very blue state, Illinois. The Republicans will no doubt find some rich businessman or businesswoman who wants the Republican nomination just for the thrill of being a Senate candidate before being crushed, but it hardly matters. Durbin's fifth term is in the bag.

Massachusetts

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Ed Markey (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	When then-President Barack Obama nominated Sen. John Kerry to be secretary of state, he forced a special election for Kerry's seat. It was won by then-representative Ed Markey, who will keep it until he dies in this very blue state. He got 62% of the vote in 2014 and should do at least as well in 2020, now that he is better known.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Gary Peters (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Gary Peters won his first Senate term in 2014 when long-time senator Carl Levin retired. Peters is now running for his second term. Although Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2016 (by 11,000 votes), it is fundamentally a blue state and Peters shouldn't have too much trouble being reelected.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tina Smith (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Tina Smith won a special election in 2018 to fill out the rest of Al Franken's term. Now she has to decide if she wants to run for a full term. She didn't accept the appointment to the Senate with much enthusiasm, but she figured it was at least better than being lieutenant governor, a job whose only redeeming feature is that the governor might die in office. She campaigned and won in the 2018 special election, but there is a fairly good chance she might decide being in the Senate minority is even worse than being a lieutenant governor, and announce her retirement from politics. That will set up an open DFL primary since any Democrat has a good chance of being elected, especially in a presidential election year.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Candidate Unknown (R)	New Hampshire is one of the six states with two female senators. The others are Arizona, California, Minnesota, Nevada, and Washington. One of New Hampshire's two representatives is a woman and the previous governor was also a woman, so the Granite State is clearly a pretty friendly state for women in politics. Shaheen herself was the first woman elected as governor of the state. She was subsequently elected two more times as the state's chief executive before being elected to the Senate in 2008. She is safe, barring an unexpected run from a member of the Sununu family.

New Jersey

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Cory Booker (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	When Frank Lautenberg died in office at 89 in 2013, Gov. Chris Christie called a special election, which Newark Mayor Cory Booker won. He was easily elected to a full term in 2014 and is up for reelection in 2020. This caused a problem because he would then have to decide if he was going to run for president or for the Senate. Fortunately for him, the Democrats control the trifecta in New Jersey and they think Booker is a cool guy, so they conveniently changed state law to allow folks to run for president and senator at the same time. It is a safe bet to say he will win one of these elections, but we are not going to predict which one.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Candidate unknown (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Tom Udall is a mere stripling at 70, but he nonetheless decided to throw in the towel and retire. Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) is going to try to succeed Udall for a second time, having already taken over the Senator's House seat when he vacated it back in 2009. Luján is a strong candidate, a Latino and a member of a prominent New Mexico family, and he will be a heavy favorite against anyone who tries to challenge him in the primary. If the GOP can coax former governor Susana Martinez out of retirement, she might make a race of it in the general election, but she would still be the underdog. And if she doesn't run, then the GOP candidate won't be an underdog so much as they will be a dead dog.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jeff Merkley (D)	Candidate Unknown (R)	Jeff Merkley won a very narrow victory over then-senator Gordon Smith in 2008. He has since been a high-profile progressive and one of the leaders of the fight to abolish the filibuster. Oregon is a liberal state, and a young (62) progressive with clear left-of-center positions on many issues is certainly the overwhelming favorite. But Merkley is also toying with a presidential run, so he might not run for the Senate.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jack Reed (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Jack Reed is a low-profile guy who avoids the media and concentrates on service to his constitutents. They apparently like that, since they elected him to his fourth term in the Senate in 2014 with 71% of the vote. In 2008 he got 73%. Usually the Republicans can find some self-funding candidate who thinks it would be neat to run for the Senate. Whomever they get, there is little chance Reed will get less than 60% of the vote. His worst Senate race was in in 1996 (his first), when he got a mere 63% of the vote.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mark Warner (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Multimillionaire Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia, has announced that he intends to stay in the Senate. Virginia has long since ceased being a swing state and has become a blue state, like Maryland. The combination of being from a now-blue state, being an incumbent, and having unlimited personal campaign funds means that Warner is a shoo-in for his third term.

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Republican-held seats

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Dan Sullivan (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Alaska politics are a bit strange. A write-in candidate (Lisa Murkowski) was elected to the Senate in 2010 after she lost the Republican primary and an independent (Bill Walker) was elected governor in 2014. Then there was the matter of Sarah Palin coming from nowhere to be elected governor in 2006, and then resigning before her term was up so she could could get a better-paying gig on Fox News following her disastrous vice presidential campaign in 2008. Alaska ranks eighth in the list of states dependent on federal money, despite widespread resentment of big gubmint. The technical term for this is "biting the hand that feeds you." That all said, the Last Frontier State is fairly Republican and the Democratic bench is not deep, so Sullivan will probably get another term.

Arizona   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Martha McSally (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Martha McSally was appointed to John MacCain's seat in 2018 after she lost the race for Jeff Flake's seat. Democrats smell blood in the water here and will give her a very tough fight. There is certain to be a Democratic primary, because the winner has a very real shot at winning the general election. Former astronaut and Naval aviator who saw combat in the Gulf War, Mark Kelly, who is also the husband of former representative Gabrielle Giffords, has announced a run. If you combine war veteran with astronaut, you get someone who will command a lot of respect in a state full of veterans. There was a possibility that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), a telegenic young Latino and Marine Corps veteran, would run. However, he bowed out, leaving Kelly a clean shot at the nomination, particularly since the Democrats will now coalesce behind him.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tom Cotton (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Assuming Tom Cotton wants to run for reelection, the seat is his. However, he is also buddy-buddy with Donald Trump, and at the rate people are fleeing the administration, Trump may need him to fill a job in the executive branch. IF that does happen, the Republican that will be appointed to fill Cotton's seat would still be a favorite to win in 2020.

Colorado   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Cory Gardner (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Colorado is turning blue and Cory Gardner is going to be one of the Democrats' top targets. The blue team has won every presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial race—except Gardner's race in 2014—since 2008. The Democrats don't have a clear candidate yet, so there will certainly be a primary. Three of the representatives are Democrats and there are plenty of current and former statewide Democrats who might be interested. For example, John Hickenlooper, the previous governor, is exploring a presidential run, but if he concludes he can't get enough funding, he might decide the Senate is not a bad consolation prize.

Georgia   

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
David Perdue (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	If 2018 gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams runs, this will be a real humdinger. She almost was elected governor in 2018 and the 2020 turnout will be more Democratic than that of 2018. A side effect of her running will be to put Georgia's electoral votes in play, as minority turnout will be enormous. So far, she hasn't given any indication of her plans.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jim Risch (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Jim Risch has had an interesting history, running for lieutenant governor at a time when he was actually governor (as a result of a gubernatorial vacancy when then-governor Dirk Kempthorne resigned the governorship to become George W. Bush's secretary of the interior). In 2008, he ran for the Senate and won. In 2014 he ran again, and won in another landslide. The Democrats will probably find some clueless sucker to accept their nomination, but sometimes it is hard to understand why candidates who know they are going to get wiped out even try.

Iowa   

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joni Ernst (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This race will another one of the Democrats' top targets. Their hope is that former two-term governor Tom Vilsack signs up. If he announces that he is running, it will clear the field and start the general election that day. Ernst beat a relatively unknown congressman, Bruce Braley, in 2014, a non-presidential year. In a presidential year, with its generally higher Democratic turnout and a popular former governor as her opponent, it could get exciting. Her 2014 campaign ad about how she was going to cut pork because she grew up on a farm and castrated hogs as a kid was a real winner, but she made her point and it would get tiresome if she used it again.

Kansas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Pat Roberts has decided to call it quits. Four terms is enough for him, so he won't run for reelection in 2020. He is 82 and he just got a big farm bill through Congress, so there isn't a lot left on his agenda. He is an old-style, decent, hardworking conservative and knows no legislation is going to be passed until 2021 at the earliest, so why die in the saddle? The GOP's preferred candidate to replace him was Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, but he bowed out. The list of potential alternatives is long, including Kansas Reps. Roger Marshall (R) and Lynn Jenkins (R), former Rep. Kevin Yoder (R), former governor Jeff Colyer (R), and former secretary of state Kris Kobach (R). It is likely to be a crowded and nasty primary because everyone knows that Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s. So whoever wins the primary likely gets to be a senator, though Kobach is unpopular enough that he would put the seat in play if he lands the GOP nod.

Kentucky

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mitch McConnell (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	As majority leader, in principle Mitch McConnell ought to have no trouble getting reelected. But even though he compromises very little with the Democrats, tea partiers consider that far too much. While Kentucky generally casts its electoral votes for the Republican candidate, two of the statewide officers are Democrats, so Kentuckians do vote for the blue team, sometimes. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes might try again (she lost to him in 2014) or Attorney General Andy Beshear, son of the former Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, might give it a shot (though one of those two might end up in the governor's mansion this year, which would make a Senate run in 2020 kind of gauche). The Democrats' preferred candidate, though, is retired Marine Corps pilot Amy McGrath, who nearly won a House race in a deep red district in 2018 and who is being actively recruited by party pooh-bahs. McConnell is extremely unpopular in his own state, which might make it a contest. Still, it is a pretty red state, and the Majority Leader has bushels of money, so he is still the favorite.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bill Cassidy (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Bill Cassidy beat then-senator Mary Landrieu in the 2014 runoff 56% to 44%, ending her political career. There aren't a lot of top Democrats left in Louisiana, with the possible exception of Landrieu's brother, Mitch Landrieu, who has served as lieutenant governor and mayor of New Orleans. He is said to be considering a presidential run, but if that doesn't pan out, he might consider a Senate race to win back the seat his sister once held. If Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is booted out of the governor's mansion this year, he might also take a shot, figuring that a presidential electorate will be more friendly to him than an off-year electorate.

Maine   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Susan Collins (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Susan Collins belongs to a vanishing breed that once roamed New England like the buffalo in South Dakota: a somewhat moderate Northeastern Republican. She is personally popular in the state, but Democrats hate her with a passion because she talks like a moderate all the time but votes like a conservative Republican nearly always. They already have raised $3 million for her opponent. She is the Democrats' #1 target, assuming she doesn't decide (at the young age of 66) to throw in the towel (which has been rumored). The list of potential candidates is long and there could be a multiway primary.

Mississippi

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	Mike Espy (D)	Cindy Hyde-Smith won a special election in 2018 following the retirement of Thad Cochran. Now she has to run for a full term. The fellow she beat, former Secretary of Agriculture Mike Epsy, wants a rematch. He is better known now and Democratic turnout is likely to be higher in 2020 than it was in 2018. His ace in the hole is his race. Espy is black, as are 37% of Mississippians, the highest of any state. If he can get enough white suburban women who hate Donald Trump and are sure to vote to also vote for him, he has an outside shot at it. Also somewhat helpful on that front is Hyde-Smith's less-than-stellar record in that area, from her "public hanging" jokes to her sending her kids to an all-white "segregation" private school.

Montana   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Steve Daines (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Montana is very red in presidential elections, but purple in state elections. The governor, Steve Bullock, and the other senator, Jon Tester, are Democrats. If the Democrats can find a good candidate, this will be a real horserace.

Nebraska

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Ben Sasse (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Ben Sasse's only fear is a primary challenge from the right, because he is often critical of Donald Trump. Still, he is conservative enough that it won't be easy for a challenger to beat him in a primary. And assuming he survives, Sasse will sail to victory in the general election. It's been a long time since Democrats like William Jennings Bryan ran the state's political machinery.

North Carolina   

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Thom Tillis (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	North Carolina is trending purple (Barack Obama won it in 2008) so this is going to be a competitive race. But first the Democrats need to find a candidate, which won't be easy, because the Tar Heel state is a particularly exhausting one in which to run. It has many big media markets and very close elections, which means that it's necessary to do endless fundraising on top of endless campaigning. There are currently three Democrats representing North Carolina in the House (G. K. Butterfield, David Price, and Alma Adams), but all three are in their seventies, which is a bit old to start a Senate career, and all three come from deep blue districts (D+17 in all three cases), which means they have a job for life in the lower chamber. The Democrats will probably have to look to one of their statewide office holders, possibly AG Josh Stein. Gov. Roy Cooper is also a Democrat, but has said he's not interested.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Special election
James Inhofe (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Inhofe is in like Flynn. If he runs. He's 84. If he decides enough is enough, there are plenty of Oklahoma Republicans who would love to be a senator. The Democrats' bench here is fairly thin and the chances of success are microscopic, so it is going to be hard for the blue team to find a top candidate.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Lindsey Graham (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Lindsey Graham has occasionally said things or done things that arch-conservatives do not like, so he could be primaried. On the other hand, he has cuddled up to Donald Trump like no one else, so he probably won't be primaried. The Democrats don't have a serious candidate, so Graham will win easily, unless he accepts a job in the administration, in which case some other Republican will win.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mike Rounds (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	It is hard to see who could beat Rounds. The Democrats don't have a bench here and Rounds is popular.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Lamar Alexander is retiring, so this is an open seat. In 2018, the Democrats ran a moderate former governor, Phil Bredesen, against a Trump-loving right-wing firebrand, Marsha Blackburn, and Blackburn won easily. Unless Bredesen runs again, on the theory that a presidential electorate will be more favorable to him, the Democratic bench is basically empty.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John Cornyn (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Beto O'Rourke came close to beating Ted Cruz in 2018. If he had tried again in 2020, with a more Democratic electorate, he might have had a chance. On the other hand, a lot of Republicans in Texas hate Cruz. Not many hate Cornyn. In any case, the point became moot when O'Rourke decided not to try for a Senate seat again. The Democrats will come up with someone plausible, and that person may even build some serious surprise momentum, like O'Rourke did. But don't bet on it, and until such time that comes to pass, Cornyn is safe.

West Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Shelley Moore-Capito (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This is a very red state and the Democrats don't have a lot of potential candiates. Joe Manchin just won reelection, yes, but he is a very clever politician: He is economically quite populist and pro-union, but culturally very conservative. They don't make them like that any more, so it is hard to see who the Democrats might run against her.

Wyoming

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Michael Enzi (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Wyoming is one of the most Republican states in the country. Michael Enzi could probably be reelected even if he was caught in bed with both a live boy and a dead girl. If there were a dead buffalo in the bed, too, maybe some people might look askance, but would probably still vote for him in the end.

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