ACA Repeal Is Dead Again

The House Republican leadership had planned a vote on repealing the ACA this week, but with almost 20 House Republicans now publicly against the new bill, it looks like the repeal is dead again. Yesterday, Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI), who has authored numerous bills to repeal the ACA over the years, said that the current one is a bridge too far and he cannot support it. Upton's problem is the MacArthur Amendment, which allows states to opt out of community rating and the essential health benefits in the ACA. The former means that insurance companies can charge sick people whatever they want to and the latter means that the insurance doesn't have to cover anything that the insurance company thinks might cost them a lot of money, like maternity care or mental health care. The GOP leadership can't just pull the MacArthur Amendment because that is the magic formula that got the House Freedom Caucus to sign up for the bill.

The fundamental problem is that the Freedom Caucus and the moderate Tuesday Group have different political plans. The Freedom Caucus effectively wants two separate insurance pools. The main pool would offer minimal insurance to healthy people at low prices. The idea is that the patients—oops, voters—in that pool would be grateful for low premiums and reward the Republicans at the polls. The second insurance pool would be the high-risk pool, where all the sick people would go. The federal and state governments would provide minimal funding for it, and when the money was used up for the year, nobody would get health care until the next January. Estimates are that 80% of the voters would be in the main pool and 20% in the high-risk pool, making this scheme politically beneficial for the Republicans. At least, that is what they hope.

The moderates in the Tuesday Group are afraid this could backfire. Maybe John Q. Voter is healthy and would benefit from the low premium in the main pool, but if John's sick mother is left to die in the underfunded high-risk pool, he might not be a certain Republican vote. This is why the discussion about pre-existing conditions is central to the whole debate. Unless sick people can be removed from the main insurance system, premiums can't go down and Republicans can't take credit for lowering premiums.

With about 20 Republicans already against the revised bill, almost every one of the dozens of undecided Republicans would have to support it in order for it to pass. That's not impossible, but it is a tall order, and there is no easy fix. In all likelihood, if a vote isn't taken this week, the repeal effort is dead in the water, and tax reform suddenly becomes a lot harder for technical reasons having to do with the Senate's budget reconciliation process. (V)

Yates to Contradict Trump Administration on Flynn

When it comes to former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, the Trump Administration's official line has been that they did not know about his conversations with Russian officials, and his habit of discussing the sanctions against Russia. As soon as the administration discovered the truth, they say, Flynn was cashiered. On Tuesday, we learned that the administration's version of events is apparently not truthful. On May 8, former acting Attorney General Sally Yates is going to go before a Senate panel to testify that she warned the administration about Flynn fully three weeks before he was fired. She was concerned that his dishonesty would leave him vulnerable to being compromised by the Russians.

Yates will be somewhat constrained in what she can say, since much of what she knows is classified. However, she's already said enough to make clear that the administration wanted to keep Mike Flynn on board, regardless of his liabilities, and that they only dumped him when the heat got too intense (and when he embarrassed the Vice President). It's also a bit more smoke added to the Russia matter; the odds are good that someone's getting close to discovering a little fire. (Z)

New Study Examines Why Clinton Lost

A new study from the Global Strategy Group pins about 30% of Hillary Clinton's loss on Democrats who stayed home on Election Day and 70% on people who voted for Obama and switched to Trump in 2016. The study has major implications for how the Democrats should attempt to regain power in 2018 and 2020. The conclusion is that just appealing to the base of young people, single women, and minorities won't do the job. The Democrats need to win back some culturally-conservative blue-collar workers. In practice, this means that some Democratic issues are likely to be helpful (e.g., a $15 minimum wage) and some not so much (e.g., gun control).

The first issue the Democrats have to contend with is whether they want to become a populist party along the lines Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wants or move more to the middle. In 2018, they can try out different themes in different states and congressional districts, but in 2020, there will be only one presidential nominee, so the Democrats will have to make a choice. But an analysis of the 2018 elections may give them a better idea of which themes work and where. In particular, the focus has to be what people in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania want, not what people in California or New York want. It could be a painful process. (V)

Clinton Blames Her Loss on Comey and Putin

The study cited above gives one take on why Hillary Clinton lost the election. However, Clinton herself has a different view. She blames FBI Director James Comey for bringing up the subject of her email server on Oct. 28, as well as the Russian hacking of John Podesta's emails, presumably at the direction of Russian President Vladimir Putin. She also said she was the victim of misogyny and unfair treatment by the media. In her view, if the election had been held two weeks earlier, she would have won.

She might have a case there. As of 2 weeks before the election, the polls showed her with leads of 8%, 6%, and 5% in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, respectively. Ultimately, she lost all three states by less than 1%. There was relatively little public polling in the final week, so it is possible that Comey's remarks and the WikiLeaks dump moved enough voters to turn those states from blue to red. Of course, that doesn't answer the question of why she didn't have a 20-point lead for months on end. She might have been the wrong candidate and might have run a poor campaign as well. (V)

Trump Responds to Clinton

There was zero chance that Donald Trump would allow Hillary Clinton's remarks to pass without notice. Indeed, it seems likely that part of Clinton's plan was to goad him into a response. And in that, she was successful. The President didn't even wait until 3:00 a.m.; he was on Twitter late Tuesday to weigh in:

FBI Director Comey was the best thing that ever happened to Hillary Clinton in that he gave her a free pass for many bad deeds! The phony...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 3, 2017

...Trump/Russia story was an excuse used by the Democrats as justification for losing the election. Perhaps Trump just ran a great campaign?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 3, 2017

Readers will decide for themselves what they think of Trump's assessment, but it is worth noting that he's now referring to himself in the third person. Presumably it's only a matter of time until he's advising the American people that, "We are not amused." (Z)

Poll Has Georgia Race as a Tossup

On June 20, Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel will face off for the right to represent GA-06 in the House of Representatives. Anzalone Liszt Grove Research has conducted the first major poll of the race, and they have it as a tossup, with Ossoff at 48% of the vote, Handel at 47%, and a four-point margin of error.

The good news for the Republicans is that party members are clearly coalescing behind Handel after a fractious primary. Further, Anzalone Liszt Grove is a Democratic House, so there might be a moderate house effect in Ossoff's favor. The good news for the Democrats is that Ossoff's support is holding; he just needs to grab a few independents or crossover votes. Also, there is a good chance that Anzalone Liszt Grove's model of the electorate is a bit conservative on Democratic turnout, since they are likely to split the difference between "normal" Democratic turnout and the "unusually high" Democratic turnout we saw in April. (Z)

Why Jim DeMint Was Kicked Out of the Heritage Foundation

The Heritage Foundation was created in 1973 by Ed Feulner as an academic think tank whose mission was to churn out conservative policy papers. However, when Jim DeMint suddenly resigned his Senate seat to run the Foundation in 2013, it abruptly changed course and became more partisan. It is now closely aligned with Donald Trump. The Foundation's board decided it didn't like this new arrangement and booted DeMint out yesterday. Feulner will take over temporarily until a new head can be found.

The Foundation has issued thousands of reports over the years, but one of them stands out above all others. In the 1990s, when First Lady Hillary Clinton was busy concocting Hillarycare, the Foundation responded by issuing a conservative alternative: make everyone buy insurance from a private insurance company. That plan became Romneycare in Massachusetts and later Obamacare nationally. The new director's mission will be to go back to the old model of thinking up conservative solutions to national problems and publishing reports describing them, rather than getting involved in partisan politics. (V)

Trump Teaches History

On Monday, Donald Trump offered a less-than-erudite take on 19th century history. On Tuesday, the most popular tag on Twitter was #TrumpTeachesHistory, in which users presented additional history "lessons," Trump-style. Among the better entries:

Abraham Lincoln could have avoided getting shot if he just stayed home and watch the play on Netflix #TrumpTeachesHistory @midnight

— Crystal (@SeamonkeyzRule) May 2, 2017

People say Rome wasn't built in a day. I could have built it in a day, believe me. And the Gauls would pay for it. #TrumpTeachesHistory

— Ben, but furious (@ben_pickert) May 2, 2017

If it wasn't for Caesar, there would be no salad. #TrumpTeachesHistory

— Steve Redmond (@sjredmond) May 2, 2017

Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat on @united, very sad #TrumpTeachesHistory @midnight

— Emperor SlowJams (@ANGRYref) May 2, 2017

Women would've gotten the vote much sooner if they all looked like 10s you know #TrumpTeachesHistory @midnight

— MikealaSunshine (@Alohababe2011) May 1, 2017

Harriet Tubman is so tremendous. They wanted her to sit at the front of the bus so she invented the railroad. #TrumpTeachesHistory@midnight

— I'm Shucked! (@Aricka_Shuck) May 1, 2017

Pearl Harbor had so many pearls, the greatest pearls. So many that Japan tried to steal the pearls. #TrumpTeachesHistory @midnight

— Seth Goodtime (@SethGoodtime) May 1, 2017

World War One? What a loser war. That's why they need the sequel. Much better, believe me. #TrumpTeachesHistory @midnight

— Dr. Z.J.F. Magnifico (@Dr_Magnifico) May 3, 2017

Paul McCartney destroyed a lot of American musicians with his McCartneyism tactics until Edward R. Cronkite stopped him #TrumpTeachesHistory

— chaplinlives (@chaplinlives) May 2, 2017

As they say, "He who lives by the Twitter, dies by the Twitter." (Z)

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---The Votemaster and Zenger