News from the Votemaster

Ranking of the Republican Candidates

Labor Day is the traditional end of summer/start of campaign season so let's take a look at the Republican presidential field as of right now. The situation is very chaotic, with Donald Trump leading all the polls, but no serious observer expects him to win the nomination. For starters, there has been no negative advertising against him, and that won't last forever. The rankings below are subjective, attempting to take into account the polls and other, qualitative, factors (such as the fact that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is focusing much more on the South than on Iowa and New Hampshire). Needless to say, this is just a snapshot and wild guess. Things will surely change in the months ahead.

The strengths and weaknesses of each candidate in the primaries are listed. Note that what is a strength in the primaries may be a weakness in the general election and vice versa. For example, Scott Walker's defeating the unions in Wisconsin will be a real plus in the primaries but would enormously motivate the unions in the general election.

Candidate	Advantages in Primaries	Disadvantages in Primaries
Jeb Bush	Probably the most electable candidate Executive experience galore Huge battle-tested field operation Massive party backing and endorsements From the mother of all swing states More money than Uncle Scrooge	Weak campaigner Grassroots hates him Wrong positions on immigration & Common Core Is going to have to defend his unpopular brother Married to a Latina Barbara Bush: "We've had enough Bushes" How did he earn his millions in the past 10 years?
Marco Rubio	American-dream type biography Young and telegenic, sort of like John Kennedy Very charismatic and likable Also from the mother of all swing states	First-term senator Something of a lightweight on policy Latino in a Latino-unfriendly party Supported Senate immigration bill before he opposed it
John Kasich	Could be establishment fallback if Bush stumbles Twice elected in swing state of Ohio From the Midwest, which could help in Iowa Would win some Democrats in general election	Not well known Running on competence not ideology Said St. Peter likes poor people Supported Medicaid expansion in Ohio Supports Common Core
Ted Cruz	Republican establishment hates him Called Mitch McConnell a liar Tea party darling Young, fiery, and very conservative Surprisingly good at fund raising Excellent speaker and debater Well organized in the South for Super Tuesday	Republican establishment hates him First-term senator Masterminded the 2013 government shutdown Maybe too much of a firebrand for some voters Latino in a Latino-unfriendly party
Donald Trump	Loved by "poke-'em-in-the-eye" voters Extremely strong candidate so far Actually created thousands of jobs Can't be bribed by anyone Says things no one else dares to say Sort of endorsed by Sarah Palin Not a politician	Would be crushed by Clinton Establishment will do anything to stop him Used to be fairly liberal Not exactly sure where the Middle East is Demeaned John McCain's war record Made sexist remark to Megyn Kelly His hair gets more attention than Hillary's
Scott Walker	Acceptable to all wings of the party Fought and beat the unions Actually governed as a conservative Won three elections in a blue state	Uninspiring performer so far New to the national scene Would boost Democratic turnout in the general Failed to create 250,000 jobs as promised Weak on foreign policy Didn't graduate from college; is he too dumb? Has never faced a presidential electorate
Ben Carson	Devoted following Polling amazingly well so far A more polite version of Donald Trump Not a politician Married to the same woman for 40 years Allows racist voters to say they are not racist	Gaffe prone He's black in a nearly all white party Never held public office Is unacceptable to establishment
Rand Paul	Could bring in new Republican voters Inherits his father's zealots Dislikes Big Government spying on people	Doesn't like wars Doesn't support "Israel good, Arabs bad" policy More of a libertarian than a conservative Was cheered at UC Berkeley Establishment is lukewarm on him
Carly Fiorina	Ran a Fortune 500 company Can attack Clinton without being called sexist Took on liberal icon Barbara Boxer in 2010 Self-made multimillionaire Could self fund in the primaries for a while Good knowledge of the issues and good debater Might attract Republican women as anti-Hillary Not a politician	Was fired from a Fortune 500 Company Got $20 million severance when fired Was crushed by Barbara Boxer in 2010
Chris Christie	Aggressive character Ran the RGA well; popular with governors Won election twice in a blue state #3 with establishment after Bush and Kasich Would probably bring in some Democrats	Polling badly in home state Hugged Obama Last fat President was William Howard Taft; but White House bathtub is bigger now We'll cross that bridge when we come to it--if it is open
Rick Perry	Elected governor of Texas three times Looks intellectual in new glasses Probably smarter than George W. Bush	2012 Oops! moment will follow him to the grave Running a very weak campaign I don't remember the third one
Mike Huckabee	Good sense of humor and very likable Ordained Baptist minister Southerner in a party whose base is the South Well known due to 2008 run and Fox show Economic populist	As Arkansas governor raised taxes repeatedly Very poor fundraiser Did badly in 2008 against a much weaker field Appeals only to evangelicals
Bobby Jindal	Is great at tossing red meat to the base Tons of executive experience Might bring in some minority voters Can perform exorcisms when needed	Disastrous SOTU reply in 2009 Not a dynamic speaker Indian-American in a nearly all white party Still "Bobby" at 44 (but Bobby Kennedy did it)
Rick Santorum	Been around the track before Won Iowa caucuses in 2012 Very strong social conservative Comes from a big blue state	Didn't win in a much weaker 2012 field One-trick pony: only social conservatism Tends to lecture people and not likable
Lindsey Graham	Knowledgeable on foreign policy Retired Air Force colonel Talks more about Beghazi than anyone Kind of folksy From the South	Base hates him Lifelong bachelor in family values party Short and dresses like a used-car salesman
George Pataki	Was elected governor of a blue state three times	George Who?
Jim Gilmore	Nobody hates him	Nobody ever heard of him Lost 2008 Senate race to Mark Warner by 31% British bookies give the ineligible Arnold Schwarzenegger better odds

Clinton Going South

New polls show Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) gaining on Hillary Clinton and even leading in New Hampshire. A Marist poll of New Hampshire out yesterday put Sanders at 41%, Hillary Clinton at 32%, and Vice President Joe Biden at 16%. Clinton is preparing for possible losses in Iowa and in New Hampshire by focusing more on South Carolina and the block of Southern states that vote on Super Tuesday (March 1). It is not that she is writing off Iowa and New Hampshire, but she realizes that she might lose them both and needs a plan B. That plan is doing well in the South, where a majority of Democratic primary voters are black. Many polls have shown that among all minority voters Clinton is far more popular than Sanders.

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---The Votemaster