News from the Votemaster

Candidates Head to Church for Christmas

Even Donald Trump went to church on Christmas Eve. Not that Trump normally goes to church, but attending some kind of church on Christmas Eve is expected of candidates and it is an easy way to score a few points with evangelicals—or at least not lose points. Trump attended a service in Bethesda-by-the-Sea in Palm Beach, FL, the church where he and his third wife, Melania, were married in 2005. Among the guests at the wedding was Hillary Clinton. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Jeb Bush also went to church. Martin O'Malley went to the Cathedral of Mary our Queen in Baltimore. While not all the candidates reported on which church they went to, it is a safe bet they all went somewhere, just for appearances. The only candidate who definitely didn't go to church is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Sanders is Jewish and spent the evening at home in Vermont. (V)

Clinton Doing Fundraising in Smaller Cities

Hillary Clinton has been doing much of her fundraising in New York and California to date, but now she is expanding into other states and especially smaller cities as well. In particular, she has been doing events and fundraisers in states that vote on Super Tuesday (March 1). By combining public events with private fundraising, she gets more done in less time and opens new sources of donations. She needs a constant source of new money, as she has more people on her payroll than any other candidate and has an exceedingly high burn rate. She raised $29 million in the last quarter but has already spent 86% of it. She also knows that the Republican nominee will be extremely well funded, so she is trying to make sure she will be as well. (V)

Little Correlation Found Between Campaign Stops and Poll Numbers

Candidates for President campaign because, well, that is what candidates for President do. One might think that the more someone campaigns in a state, the higher their poll numbers will be. It turns out that is not true. For example, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is surging in Iowa despite the relatively few days he has spent there. The New Hampshire leader, Donald Trump, has spent only 12 days in the state, compared to the 48 days Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) spent there before giving up in despair. Similarly, Carly Fiorina has spent 32 days in Iowa and is polling around 2% at best. In short, spending a lot of time on the ground in a state doesn't seem to matter as much as it used to. (V)

Susana Martinez Was Not the First Public Official to Get Drunk

When the police were called to a hotel party in Santa Fe in response to bottles being thrown off a fourth-floor balcony, they discovered Gov. Susana Martinez (R-NM), a possible vice presidential candidate, drunk. However, she is not the first public official to be drunk while in office. Some of the others include Richard Nixon, who was drunk while planning the invasion of Cambodia. In fact, drunken Presidents go back as far as the eighth President, Martin Van Buren, who partied so hard he was known as "Blue Whiskey Van." Although he never made it to the White House, senator Ted Kennedy also liked to drink, most famously before the accident at Chappaquiddick where he drove off a bridge, which resulted in his passenger, Mary Jo Kopechne, drowning. (V)

The Blunt Truth About 2016

It is not often that we link to Leafly, which bills itself as "The World's Cannabis Information Resource." However, when it comes to legalizing pot, they're the go-to source. And earlier this week, they published a very thorough overview of states where legalization will—or, at least, may—move forward in 2016.

Why does this matter? Because marijuana-legalization initiatives bring young liberals who otherwise might not vote out to the polls. This won't have much impact in California or Maine, but it could affect the swing states of Nevada and Ohio. In 2016, both have precious electoral votes up for grabs, as well as hotly-contested Senate races. It's within the realm of possibility that, on election night, Hillary Clinton, or Catherine Cortez Masto, or Ted Strickland will have to thank ganj for their victory. (Z)

DHS Deportation Plan Angers Democrats

Yesterday, we noted that the Department of Homeland Security is working on a plan to raid and deport a large number of undocumented families. We also presumed that liberals would not be terribly happy about the plan. Well, as it turns out, they are not. A number of immigration activists have blasted the plan, as have all three Democratic presidential candidates. A campaign spokesman said that Hillary Clinton has "real concerns" about the operation, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) declared that he was "very disturbed" by the news, and Martin O'Malley said time had come to end "mindless deportations." With a response like this, it seems nearly certain that the plan will be quietly dropped (or conveniently put on hold until, say, November 9, 2016). (Z)

Thanks to Rubio, U.S. Has No Ambassador to Mexico

President Obama nominated Roberta Jacobson as ambassador to Mexico six months ago. She is eminently qualified, and has the approval of both the government of Mexico and the Republican-led Senate Foreign Relations Committee. However, Sen. Marco Rubio—because he is angry about the Obama administration's move to normalize relations with Cuba—has put a hold on the nomination, which prohibits it from coming up for a vote.

This is a high-risk move, for two reasons. First of all, it looks punitive and petty, not unlike Gov. Chris Christie's (allegedly) shutting down a bridge to punish Fort Lee Mayor Mark Sokolich. Second, the anti-Castro maneuver may play well with Cuban-Americans, but likely not with Mexican-Americans. They may see the hold as disrespectful, or may have need of services that are unavailable (or less easily available) in the absence of an ambassador. Since Mexican-American voters outnumber Cuban-Americans 20-to-1, Rubio might want to back down on this one. (Z)

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---The Votemaster