News from the Votemaster

Trump Has Massive Lead in New Poll

Those people (including us) who are waiting for Donald Trump to implode will have to wait a bit longer. A new CNN/ORC poll released yesterday puts The Donald on top again, with a massive 20-point lead over #2, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). No GOP candidate, not even Trump, has held this big a lead at any time this year. The table below gives the results of the new poll, with the change column reflecting what has happened since the previous CNN/ORC poll, conducted Oct. 14-17.

National
Rank	Candidate	Pct	Change
1	Donald Trump	36%	+9%
2	Ted Cruz	16%	+12%
3	Ben Carson	14%	-8%
4	Marco Rubio	12%	+4%
5	Chris Christie	4%	+0%
6	Jeb Bush	3%	-5%
6	Carly Fiorina	3%	-1%
8	Mike Huckabee	2%	-3%
8	John Kasich	2%	-1%
10	Rand Paul	1%	-4%
	Lindsey Graham	<1%
	George Pataki	<1%
	Rick Santorum	<1%
	Jim Gilmore	<1%

Republican leaders are just going to freak out when they absorb these numbers. They are quite capable of envisioning the ads Hillary Clinton's team is probably already preparing. In these ads, Trump will be on screen most of the time just ranting about Mexicans, women, the handicapped, and a lot more. She won't even have to appear in the ads at all, except at the very end to announce that boy oh boy does she approve of the contents of the ad. (V)

Is Trump's Lead Deceiving?

Certainly, the vast majority of the commentariat (including us) thinks so. In an op-ed for the New York Times, David Brooks argues that most voters have not actually chosen their candidate, and that it will be a couple of months before they start to get serious. He uses a pink rug as a metaphor—the pink rug may be the one that catches your eye in the store, but when it comes down to making a purchase, you're going to buy the less showy blue rug that actually fits in with the decor of your house. Brooks also makes a statistical case that voter preference remains pretty fungible until a week or so before they have to actually cast a vote.

Steven Shepard agrees with Brooks, though his argument focuses on the challenges in trying to poll the 2016 race. The difficulty of getting a proper sample in a world full of cell phones and young people who won't respond is a problem, and that problem becomes more pronounced when dealing with an extremely unorthodox candidate like Trump. For example, he may draw people who do not usually vote to the polls so that they can vote for him. Or, he might draw people who do not usually vote to the polls so they can vote against him. Nobody knows, including the pollsters.

Perhaps the most important point, however, is the one raised in CNN's analysis of their own poll. They observe that as strong as his lead is, it is still the case that the vast majority of Republican voters prefer someone else. Undoubtedly they all know who Trump is, and what he stands for, and they are not currently buying. If they coalesce behind whoever becomes the Trump alternative, which they very well could, then The Donald will be in trouble. (Z)

A Jeb Bush Premortem

Jeb's not dead yet. Like Monty Python's medieval peasant, he even claims to be getting better. Still, Nia-Malika Henderson and Ashley Killough's dissection of the fundamental problems with his campaign is pretty compelling. Their main points:

• He has no message that is distinct from the other candidates
• His major accomplishments were a decade ago
• His brother's record is a millstone around his neck
• He's rather tone deaf, and makes unforced errors as a result
• His attacks, particularly those on Donald Trump, aren't landing
• All that Super PAC money just buys advertising but ads don't work well any more (as this NPR piece observes)

Nobody's counting Bush out quite yet; it's hard to believe that someone with so many advantages can't at least survive the first few rounds of winnowing. But when and if the end does come, CNN can likely just repurpose this piece without very much editing. (Z)

Clinton's Favorability Is Up Compared to Sanders

A new Gallup poll released yesterday puts Hillary Clinton's favorability/unfavorability at 76%/18% among Democrats for a net +58%. For Sen. Bernie Sanders, the numbers are 51%/14% for a net +37%. Over the past month, Clinton's net favorability has increased from +51% to +58%. She gained among men, women, and all age groups. (V)

Economy Added 211,000 Jobs in November

While all the talk about terrorism is well and good, usually it is the state of the economy that is the biggest factor in elections. If jobs are plentiful and inflation is low, the voters don't usually see much of a reason to "throw the bums out." So yesterday's report that the economy added 211,000 jobs in November along with an upward revision of 35,000 jobs for September and October, is good news for the Democrats. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%. Average hourly wages are also up, by an amount of 2.3% since a year ago. All in all, if the economy keeps humming along like this for another year, the Democrats are going to have a powerful weapon at their disposal next November.

What is also important is the job growth is broad. Health care added 24,000 jobs, retail added 31,000, business services added 27,000, and leisure and hospitality added 39,000. The best sector, however, was construction, with 46,000 new jobs. Nevertheless, there was also a bit of bad news. Mining lost 11,000 jobs and manufacturing shed 1,000. During the Obama administration, a total of 13.7 million jobs have been added. (V)

Miami Healthcare Magnate Will Run Anti-Trump Campaign

While most of the Republican candidates are scared to take on Donald Trump, Florida health care magnate Mike Fernandez is not and is starting to run newspaper ads calling Trump a "narcissistic BULLYionaire." The ads compare Trump to Hitler, Mussolini, and Peron. The ads will run in Miami, Des Moines, and Las Vegas. (V)

Anti-Trump Protestors Are Getting Louder

Donald Trump appeared at a rally on Friday and was, depending on who's counting, interrupted between five and ten times by protesters, many of them wearing "Black Lives Matter" shirts. Eventually, the Donald grew so frustrated that he cut the event short.

Generally speaking, photos and videos of a candidate being shouted down by protesters are not a good look. Indeed, Trump himself referenced such footage in taking a swipe at Bernie Sanders' fitness for the presidency just a couple of months ago. More important, however, is that the protests remind us that Trump has a problem with black voters. Coupled with his problems among Latino voters, and Asian voters, and Muslim voters, it makes it all-but-impossible for Trump—even if he lands the GOP nomination—to win the presidency. There may be a lot of angry white voters out there, but there aren't enough to win a national election. (Z)

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---The Votemaster