Obama 332
image description
   
Romney 206
image description
Senate
Dem 55
image description
   
GOP 45
image description
  • Strongly Dem (191)
  • Likely Dem (72)
  • Barely Dem (69)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (15)
  • Likely GOP (16)
  • Strongly GOP (175)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: (None)
Dem pickups:  
GOP pickups:  

News from the Votemaster

Ohio Eliminates Early Voting on Sundays

Ohio secretary of state Jon Husted has decided to eliminate early voting on the two Sundays before election day. No doubt he is aware of the "Souls to the polls" drives from many black churches after Sunday services. His move effectively eliminates this program. By making it much harder for blacks to vote, Husted has decreased the Democratic vote and thus helped Republicans across the board in Ohio.

Earlier in the week, Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) signed a bill cutting six days off the early voting as well as reducing hours on other days. Clearly the plan here is to do everything to reduce the turnout for the Democrats in urban areas. None of this has anything to do with voter fraud or saving money. It is entirely political.

Other states are using voter ID laws to suppress turnout, nominally to reduce voting fraud, which is essentially nonexistent for in-person voting although there is a little bit for absentee voting (which these laws don't touch). Even if there were a lot of voting fraud, there are ways to fight it that do not disenfranchise poor voters. One method used by other countries is to have the government send a card to every registered voter a few weeks before the election saying where the polling place is. The voter is instructed to bring the card, which serves as proof that the voter is registered. In some places the cards contain high-tech anticounterfeiting technology, such as holograms. It is also possible to include on the card a digital photo of the voter, taken at the time the voter registered. To make this even more bulletproof, the card could contain a random number, different for each voter and each election and known to the poll workers, to make it harder to forge the cards. A scheme like this would make it virtually impossible for anyone to vote fraudulently and would not disadvantage people without government-issued ID. But, of course, the real purpose of the voter ID laws is precisely to make it harder for poor people, who disproportionately do not have drivers licenses or passports, to vote.

A recent study from Harvard and the University of Sydney confirms this. The U.S. ranked 26th in electoral integrity, a broad measure of flawed elections, including factors such as voter registration and campaign finance. An example of a flaw in the U.S. system that other countries don't have is the requirement in some states to present a voter ID card. The card is usually free but the birth certificate needed to get it is not free, so if you don't have a drivers license (not free) or a passport (not free), you may have to effectively pay to vote. De facto, this is poll tax. For this and many other reasons, no Western country scored lower than the U.S. in the study.

Travis Childers to Run for the Senate in Mississippi

The day before the filing deadline, former representative Travis Childers (D) filed to run for the Senate seat currently occupied by Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS). Normally, no Democrat would have a chance in Mississippi, but this year special circumstances give Childers at least an outside shot.

The circumstances are that state senator Chris McDaniel (R) is challenging Cochran, a six-term senator. Virtually every tea party organization in the country is backing McDaniel. Some people think this race might be a rerun of the 2012 Indiana Republican Senate primary, in which a tea party candidate, Richard Mourdock, challenged and defeated six-term senator Richard Lugar in the Republican primary. Mourdock went on to make some inflammatory comments about women and lost the general election. If McDaniel wins the primary and then also makes outrageous comments of one kind or another. Childers might have a chance. Still, Mississippi is much redder than Indiana, so the Republicans are nevertheless favored to hold the seat.

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster
Feb26 Primary Season Begins Next Week
Feb08 Lt. Gov. John Walsh Appointed to Replace Baucus in the Senate
Feb03 Christie and 2016
Feb03 Update on the Key 2014 Senate Races
Dec19 Obama Names Max Baucus as Ambassador to China
Dec19 Democrats Sweep Virginia Statewide Offices
Nov23 The Senate Did Not Really Abolish the Filibuster
Nov06 Virginia is for Democrats
Nov06 Christie Wins Big in New Jersey
Nov06 The Establishment Strikes Back
Nov06 De Blasio Crushes Lhota in New York City
Nov06 Many Referendums on the Ballot
Nov05 All Eyes on Virginia and New Jersey
Nov05 Business Fights Back: Key Republican Primary to Be Held in Alabama Today
Nov05 Liberals Poised for Big Wins in New York City
Nov05 Key Ballot Measures Will Also Get Attention
Nov05 Bass Will Not Challenge Shaheen in New Hampshire
Oct17 Cory Booker Elected Senator from New Jersey
Oct17 Government Crisis Postponed for 3 Months
Oct01 The Blame Game Begins
Oct01 Primaries May Hurt Republicans' Senate Hopes
Sep19 Natalie Tennant To Run for Senate in West Virginia
Aug20 Ted Cruz Releases His Birth Certificate
Aug20 Lamar Alexander May Get Primary Challenger
Aug14 Booker on Track to Become Senator from New Jersey
Aug07 Kentucky and National Politics Get Intertwined
Jul23 Michelle Nunn Pre-Announces Senate Candidacy
Jul23 Liz Cheney to Challenge Sen. Enzi in Wyoming
Jul14 Schweitzer Won't Run for Baucus' Senate Seat
Jul14 Prospective Senate Candidate Sarah Palin Has Never Talked to State Republican Chairman
Jun26 Markey Holds Massachusetts Senate Seat for the Democrats
Jun26 Supreme Court Guts the Voting Right Act
Jun26 Is Ted Cruz Eligible to Be President?
Jun19 McConnell Threatens to Go Nuclear All the Time If He Becomes Majority Leader
Jun04 Lautenberg Dies, Christie on the Spot
Jun04 Rep. Carolyn McCarthy Has Lung Cancer
Jun04 Lautenberg Dies, Christie on the Spot
Jun02 Hagan Gets First Serious Republican Challenger
May19 Virginia Republicans Nominate Ken Cuccinelli for Governor
May19 Karen Handel Joins the Fray in Georgia
May04 Republicans Can't Find Senate Candidate in Iowa
Apr24 Sen. Baucus to Retire
Mar30 Republicans Gear Up for a Battle--with Themselves
Mar27 Sen. Tim Johnson Will Retire
Mar19 Head of the Republican Party Excoriates the Republican Party
Mar01 Latham Declines to Run for Harkin's Senate Seat in Iowa
Feb15 Democrats Avoid Bruising Senatorial Primary in New Jersey
Feb08 Braley Starts Running for Harkin's Seat
Feb02 Scott Brown Will Not Run in Masssachusetts Special Election
Jan27 Tom Harkin to Retire in 2015