For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week.) The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.
If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.
The color coding is as follows:
- Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
- Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
- Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
- White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
- Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
- Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
- Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)
The states in the middle are the ones in play.
The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Obama, start at the top, so if he wins D.C. and Hawaii and nothing else, he gets 7 EVs. For Romney, read up from the bottom. If he wins only Oklahoma and Wyoming, he gets 10 EVs.
Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Obama have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Romney have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.
Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.
Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Obama's EVs in any row plus the Romney EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.
| State | EVs | Obama | Romney | Lead | Obama EVs | Romney EVs |
| D.C. | 3 |
88% |
8% |
80% |
3 |
538 |
| Vermont | 3 |
62% |
25% |
37% |
6 |
535 |
| New York | 29 |
61% |
34% |
27% |
35 |
532 |
| Hawaii | 4 |
61% |
34% |
27% |
39 |
503 |
| Delaware | 3 |
62% |
37% |
25% |
42 |
499 |
| Rhode Island | 4 |
54% |
33% |
21% |
46 |
496 |
| Massachusetts | 11 |
58% |
38% |
20% |
57 |
492 |
| Maryland | 10 |
55% |
36% |
19% |
67 |
481 |
| Illinois | 20 |
55% |
36% |
19% |
87 |
471 |
| California | 55 |
55% |
36% |
19% |
142 |
451 |
| Connecticut | 7 |
55% |
42% |
13% |
149 |
396 |
| New Jersey | 14 |
53% |
41% |
12% |
163 |
389 |
| Washington | 12 |
54% |
43% |
11% |
175 |
375 |
| Maine | 4 |
52% |
42% |
10% |
179 |
363 |
| New Mexico | 5 |
52% |
43% |
9% |
184 |
359 |
| Minnesota | 10 |
52% |
43% |
9% |
194 |
354 |
| Oregon | 7 |
50% |
44% |
6% |
201 |
344 |
| Michigan | 16 |
51% |
45% |
6% |
217 |
337 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 |
50% |
46% |
4% |
237 |
321 |
| Nevada | 6 |
51% |
47% |
4% |
243 |
301 |
| Wisconsin | 10 |
50% |
47% |
3% |
253 |
295 |
| Virginia | 13 |
49% |
46% |
3% |
266 |
285 |
| Ohio | 18 |
49% |
46% |
3% |
 284 |
272 |
| New Hampshire | 4 |
50% |
47% |
3% |
288 |
254 |
| Iowa | 6 |
49% |
46% |
3% |
294 |
250 |
| Colorado | 9 |
48% |
47% |
1% |
303 |
244 |
| North Carolina | 15 |
49% |
49% |
0% |
318 |
235 |
| Florida | 29 |
47% |
49% |
2% |
347 |
220 |
| South Carolina | 9 |
40% |
46% |
6% |
356 |
191 |
| Arizona | 11 |
46% |
53% |
7% |
367 |
182 |
| Montana | 3 |
44% |
52% |
8% |
370 |
171 |
| Missouri | 10 |
44% |
52% |
8% |
380 |
168 |
| South Dakota | 3 |
42% |
52% |
10% |
383 |
158 |
| Georgia | 16 |
43% |
53% |
10% |
399 |
155 |
| Indiana | 11 |
42% |
53% |
11% |
410 |
139 |
| Mississippi | 6 |
43% |
56% |
13% |
416 |
128 |
| Louisiana | 8 |
37% |
50% |
13% |
424 |
122 |
| West Virginia | 5 |
38% |
52% |
14% |
429 |
114 |
| Kentucky | 8 |
39% |
53% |
14% |
437 |
109 |
| Kansas | 6 |
42% |
57% |
15% |
443 |
101 |
| Texas | 38 |
39% |
55% |
16% |
481 |
95 |
| North Dakota | 3 |
39% |
55% |
16% |
484 |
57 |
| Nebraska | 5 |
40% |
56% |
16% |
489 |
54 |
| Alabama | 9 |
36% |
54% |
18% |
498 |
49 |
| Alaska | 3 |
38% |
62% |
24% |
501 |
40 |
| Tennessee | 11 |
34% |
59% |
25% |
512 |
37 |
| Oklahoma | 7 |
33% |
58% |
25% |
519 |
26 |
| Arkansas | 6 |
31% |
58% |
27% |
525 |
19 |
| Wyoming | 3 |
33% |
65% |
32% |
528 |
13 |
| Idaho | 4 |
27% |
63% |
36% |
532 |
10 |
| Utah | 6 |
26% |
70% |
44% |
538 |
6 |