While the 2014 election is more than half a year away, one fact stands out right now: There are 21 Democratic Senate seats up for election and only 16 Republican seats (including two special elections). Furthermore, In a way, 2014 will be even tougher for the Democrats that 2012 was, although ultimately they picked up two seats then. Their problem is that the Republicans up for reelection are almost all from deep red states, like Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wyoming, which Democrats have almost no chance of winning. Other than Maine, a blue state with a Republican senator, Susan Collins, the only possibility of a Democrat winning a deep red state is a horrible, bloody Republican primary won by a tea party candidate who then proceeds to say something that alienates large numbers of women, as Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock did. All the Democrats can do to aid this process is spend money in the Republican primaries to try to defeat the incumbent and nominate a tea party candidate.

In contrast, the Democrats have vulnerable incumbents in a number of red states, including Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Dakota, and somewhat vulnerable candidates in other states like North Carolina, as well as an open seat in West Virginia. It is conceivable that Democrats could lose as many as six seats, and thus their control of the Senate. In addition to the many vulnerable candidates, in midterm elections, young Democrats and minorities tend not to vote, making the problem worse. Nevertheless, in politics, a week is a long time.

>2014 will see a very strange situation: in two states, Oklahoma and South Carolina, will hold elections for both senators. This is due to the early retirements of Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Luck would have it that in both states the other senator was also up for reelection in 2014. Unfortunately, the software that runs this site was never designed to handle two Senate races in the same state in one year, so will will not actively track these two special elections. But since it is a virtual certainty that the Republicans will hold both seats, will we just count them as Republican holdovers. Nevertheless, they are listed below for convenience although the only uncertainty is who wins the Republican primaries in each one.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones following.

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Democratic-held seats

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Begich (D)	(R)	Mark Begich, the former mayor of Anchorage, was personally recruited by then-DSCC chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), even though he had to face then-Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest sitting Republican in Senate history. Stevens was convicted of several felony violations a week before the election, but lost by less than 4000 votes. Stevens' convictions were later thrown out by Attorney General Eric Holder, but by then it was too late. Two establishment Republicans, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R-AK) and Commissioner of Natural Resources, Dan Sullivan, are running. So is Joe Miller, a firebrand who won the 2012 Republican primary. It is possible that Treadwell and Sullivan will split the generic conservative vote, allowing Miller to win with backing from the tea party. In the general election, Begich would probably have a tough, but potentially winnable race against either Treadwell or Sullivan but would crush Miller.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Pryor (D)	Tom Cotton (R)	In 2002, Mark Pryor defeated incumbent senator Tim Hutchinson by 7 points and became so popular the Republicans didn't bother to field a candidate against him in 2008. He is not so lucky this time. His opponent will probably be Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR), a young very conservative candidate with two degrees from Harvard but nevertheless tea party backing. It is probably a tossup at this point. Given that control of the Senate could hinge on this race, tons of outside money will flow into the state and many outsiders will get involved.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Udall (D)	(R)	Colorado is trending Democratic and the Republicans don't have an obvious candidate, so Udall is probably safe. His first cousin, Tom Udall, is the senior senator from New Mexico. So far, the most likely Republican candidate is Ken Buck, who lost to now-senator Michael Bennet in 2010, but he will first have to beat at least four state legislators in the Republican primary. Udall has almost $5 million in the bank and no primary opponent, so the winner of a potentially nasty primary will face a steep uphill climb.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chris Coons (D)	(R)	Chris Coons had the pleasure of running against Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell in a 2010 special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Joe Biden when he became Vice President. He won't be so lucky this time, but Delaware is a very blue state and the Republicans have no bench at all there, so he can serve another five or six terms in the Senate if he wants to.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	After the death of Sen. Daniel Inouye in Dec. 2012, Gov. Neil Abercrombie appointed Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz (D-HI) to the Senate. A special election will be held in Nov. 2014 to fill out the rest of Inouye's term. At 40, Schatz represents a new generation in Hawaii politics. This did not sit well with Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who has long wanted to succeed Inouye, so there will be a primary. For the GOP, maybe former governor Linda Lingle will try again, but she ran for the Senate in 2012 and lost. If she doesn't run, the Republicans will be hard pressed to find a serious candidate.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Dick Durbin (D)	(R)	Dick Durbin is majority whip, the second most powerful position in the Senate. He is also from a very blue state, Illinois. His fourth term is all but certain. The really interesting question about Illinois representation in the Senate is whether Michelle Obama will challenge Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) in 2016.

Iowa

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Bruce Braley (D)	(R)	Tom Harkin will be 75 years old 2 weeks after the 2014 election. He decided that he's been around long enough and will not run for reelection. Iowa is a swing state, and Harkin's departure will set off a chain reaction in both parties as they start dealing with it. Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is the likely Democratic nominee and probably the strongest one the Democrats have. a small swarm of candidates have signed up to run for the Republican nomination. None of them are well known. If the leading candidate in the primary fails to get 35% of the vote, there will be a state convention on July 12, 2014, which will choose the nominee. Given that conventiongoers tend to be more activist than primary voters, a convention is likely to pick the most conservative (i.e., least electable) candidate, regardless of the primary results. Braley is probably the favorite at this point and he will have close to a year to raise his profile and collect money.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mary Landrieu (D)	(R)	Mary Landrieu could be in for a hard time in 2014. Lousiana is a deep red state and many black Democrats left the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and never returned. Nevertheless, she managed to win in 2008 and has fought hard for the state. Working in her favor is that the Landrieu name is well known in Louisiana. Her father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor of New Orleans, a post now occupied by her brother Mitch Landrieu. Gov Bobby Jindal (R-LA) have been a formiddable opponent, but he is not running. For a while, it looked like the Republicans had settled on Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) as her opponent, but now that a tea party candidate, Air Force colonel Rob Maness has entered the race, all bets are off. At the very least, Cassidy is going to have to spent time, money, and energy fending off Maness, which will weaken him in the general election. State representative Paul Hollis is also in the mix, but few in Louisiana know who he is. Worst case for the Republicans is that the untested Maness, who has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund, has to face a sitting senator who has won three Senate elections already and whose (last) name is universally known in throughout Louisiana.

Massachusetts

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ed Markey (D)	(R)	When President Obama nominated Sen. John Kerry to be Secretary of State, he forced a special election for Kerry's seat. It was won by then-representative Ed Markey, who will have to defend it in November. The only plausible candidate the Republicans have is former senator Scott Brown, but he is apparently contemplating a Senate race in New Hampshire.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) could have won reelection easily but he decided to retire. He would have been 80 on election day. His retirement will set off a free for all in both parties. Neither party has a front runner, although Rep. Gary Peters probably has a slight edge among Democrats. For the GOP, it may be hard to find a strong candidate, given the Democratic lean of the state. Their best bet is former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land, who is running, but who will first have to win a primary.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Al Franken (D)	(R)	Al Franken beat then-senator Norm Coleman in 2008--a Democratic wave year--by just 312 votes after six months of legal wrangling following the election. As a former professional comedian, some people were worried he would spend his time in the Senate shooting off one liners at the Republicans. But he held his tongue, kept his head down, and played the role expected of a junior senator. His Senate colleague, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), won a 34-point landslide in this blue state in 2012. While Franken is not likely to repeat that feat, unless the Republicans can pull a rabbit out of the hat, Franken is likely to win reelection. One conceivable opponent might be Rep. Michele Bachmann. If she is the GOP nominee, it will be an epic battle and Franken has at least a shot at beating Klobuchar's 34-point margin If Bachmann declines to run, the Republicans may end up nominating an unknown businessman, Mike McFadden, who will probably lose.

Montana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	Max Baucus is a moderate Democrat in a state that votes for Republicans in presidential elections but has a long history of voting for Democrats at the state level. He has decided that six terms is enough and he is retiring in 2015. Obama has decided to send him to China as ambassador before his term ends, so Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) will nominate an interim senator, possibly Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D-MT). However, two other Democrats are already in the race, so there will certainly be a primary. This is going to be a tough seat for the Democrats to hold now that former governor Brian Schweitzer has decided against running for it because he doesn't want a job where he can't take his dog to work. On the Republican side, Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT) and state representative Champ Edmunds will face off in the primary. Edmunds will attack Daines from the right, but Daines is better known and better funded.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeanne Shaheen (D)	(R)	New Hampshire is about as friendly to female politicians as you can get. Both senators, both representatives and the the new governor are all women. Shaheen is well known in the state, having served two terms as governor before being elected to the Senate in 2008. Unless the Republicans can find an exceptionally strong candidate, she is probably safe in this quirky, but more blue than red, state. No big-name Republicans seem interested in challenging her, so the honor may fall to conservative activist Karen Testerman, former state senator Jim Rubens, or former U.S. senator Bob Smith. Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown is contemplating the race as well.

New Jersey

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Cory Booker (D)	(R)	When Frank Lautenberg died in office, Gov. Chris Christie called a special election which Newark mayor Cory Booker won. Now Booker will have to start campaigning all over again. So far no serious Republican has come forward to challenge him so Booker looks safe.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tom Udall (D)	(R)	Tom Udall is a mere stripling at 64. He has won two elections as New Mexico Attorney General, five as a congressman, and one as a senator. New Mexico has long since ceased to be a swing state and has become a deep blue state, so this seat is Udall's as long as he wants it. He comes from a very political family. His first cousin, Mark Udall is senator from Colorado, his uncle, Morris Udall, is a congressman from Arizona, and he is also related to Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and to former Oregon senator Gordon Smith. The only danger for Udall is that popular governor Susana Martinez (R-NM) will be at the top of the ticket in 2014 and have some coattails. Still, you can't beat somebody with nobody, and no top-tier Republican has announced for the race yet.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Kay Hagan (D)	(R)	Kay Hagan beat then senator Elizabeth Dole in the Democratic wave year of 2008 by 8 points, but she was helped a lot by a disatrous ad run by Dole accusing Hagan of taking money from the Godless Americans PAC. The ad was so over the top, that it became a major campaign issue. She won't be so lucky this time, but of course she is now an incumbent in this swing state. The Republican establishment is firmly behind state house speaker Thom Tillis, but he will first have to get through a nasty primary against fiery conservative pastor Mark Harris and tea party activist Greg Brannon. If Harris and Brannon split the right-wing vote, Tillis could win the primary and be a real threat to Hagan. If Harris or Brannon manage to win the primary, Hagan will probably get a second term.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeff Merkley (D)	(R)	Jeff Merkley won a very narrow victory over then-senator Gordon Smith in 2008. In his first time as a senator, he has been a high-profile progressive and one of the leaders of the fight to abolish the filibuster in Jan. 2013. Oregon is a liberal state, and a young (56), progressive, with clear left-of-center positions on many issues, shouldn't have any trouble coasting to reelection.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jack Reed (D)	(R)	Jack Reed is a low-profile guy who avoids the media and concentrates on service to his constitutents. They apparently like that since they elected him to his third term in the Senate in 2008 with 73% of the vote over his Republican challenger, the same 57% margin he got in 2002. No matter who the Republicans nominate, he'll win by more than 50% in 2014.

South Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	Mike Rounds (R)	Tim Johnson had prostate cancer in 2004 and a cerebral hemorrhage in 2006 while doing a live radio interview. Although he won reelection in 2008, he decided that the sympathy vote would be smaller this time and he bowed out. A possible Democratic candidate is Brendan Johnson, the senator's son, who is a U.S. attorney. For the Republicans, it is likely that former governor Mike Rounds will be the nominee. This state is the Republicans' best pickup opportunity.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Warner (D)	Ed Gillespie (R)	Multimillionaire Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia, has announced that he intends to stay in the Senate. He has already raised $7 million for his 2014 race. His likely opponent is former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie, who has never run for public office before. Nevertheless, Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) was in exactly the same position when he decided to run for governor of Virginia in 2013, so Gillespie can't be written off so quickly. That said, defeating a popular incumbent senator who could easily throw in $10 million of his $200 million fortune if need be, will be a very steep climb.

West Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Natalie Tennant (D)	Shelley Moore-Capito (R)	Jay Rockefeller, who will be 77 on election day 2014, decided to call it quits. The DSCC had some trouble finding a candidate even though all six of the statewide elected officers in West Virginia are Democrats. Finally they convinced Secretary of State Natalie Tennant to make the run. Rep. Shelley Moore-Capito, daughter of former West Virginia governor and former felon, Arch Moore, has announced that she is running for the Republican senatorial nomination. On the day she announced a bevy of conservatives immediately attacked her for being too liberal, even though she is by far the best known Republican in the state. Former state senator and tea party favorite Pat McGeehan immediately jumped in and later jumped out, Moore-Capito will coast easily to the nomination. The only certainty here is that come January West Virginia will have its first female senator.

Republican-held seats

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeff Sessions (R)	(D)	Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III is about as Southern as they come and also about as conservative as they come. He voted for everything George W. Bush put in front of the Senate except TARP and opposed everything President Obama wanted passed. He got 63% of the vote in 2008, although that was against an unknown black woman who son was currently serving time in federal prison. If the Democrats can come up with a white man with a solid track record, they might be able to keep Sessions below 60%.

Georgia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	Michelle Nunn (D)	Although Saxby Chambliss is a conservative Republican, he is at least willing to talk to the Democrats from time to time. However, that is enough of a sin to make it all but certain he would have faced a primary in 2014--and lost. Rather than go down to a tea party challenge, he has announced that he will not run for reelection. Reps Paul Broun (R-GA), Phil Gengrey (R-GA), and Jack Kingston (R-GA), quickly signed up to run in the Republican primary. Then former George Secretary of State, Karen Handel (R), also joined the fray. Handel was the executive at the Susan G. Komen Foundation who caused an uproar when she withdrew funding from Planned Parenthood because some of their clinics provide abortions, in addition to cancer screening and other services. The Republican primary will be a race to see who can run fastest to the right. The Democrats have settled on Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former senator Sam Nunn. The combination of a real mudfight on the Republican side and a well-known name on the Democratic side may make it a close race, but unless the Republican stumbles, it is unlikely Nunn can win.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jim Risch (R)	(D)	Jim Risch has had an interesting history, running for lieutenant governor at a time when he was actually governor (as a result of a gubernatorial vacancy when then-governor Dirk Kempthorne resigned the governorship to become George W. Bush's Secretary of the Interior). In 2008, he ran for the Senate and won. He is expected to run for reelection in 2014 and win easily.

Kansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Pat Roberts (R)	(D)	Pat Roberts has run for Congress six times: three times for the House in KS-01 and three times for the Senate. The worst he has even done is 60% of the vote, which he got in 2008, when he beat the Democratic candidate by 24%. He is running in 2014 will probably do at least as well, no matter who the Democrats choose as their sacrificial lamb. Kansas is so Republican that running for the Senate probably isn't even worth the trouble in order to get statewide exposure for a future run at some other statewide office, all six of which are currently occupied by Republicans. Nevertheless, occasionally a Democrat does get elected to statewide office in Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius (D) was elected governor in 2002 and reelected in 2006. However, Kansas has elected only three Democrats to the Senate in all of its history, most recently in FDR's landslide victory of 1932. Roberts is about as safe as a senator can be.

Kentucky

Unknown	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	Alison Lundergan-Grimes (D)	As minority leader, in principle Mitch McConnell ought to have no trouble getting reelected, but even though he compromises very little with the Democrats, tea partiers consider that far too much so they are supporting businessman Matt Bevin against him in the Republican primary. Since McConnell has been in Congress for nearly 40 years, Bevin is blaming all the country's (perceived) ills on him. McConnell has lots of a money and a powerful statewide organization but he is not popular in Kentucky. It is going to be a battle royal. The Democrats settled on Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who got 61% of the vote in 2010. While Kentucky generally casts its electoral votes for the Republican candidate, six of the seven statewide elected officers are Democrats, so Kentuckians do vote for Democrats. If Grimes can pin the government shutdown on the Republicans, she might have a chance, but the Republican is still the favorite for the moment.

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Susan Collins (R)	(D)	Susan Collins belongs to a vanishing breed that once roamed New England like the buffalo in South Dakota: a moderate Northeastern Republican. She is personally popular in the state, but moderates are always subject to tea party challenges, even when the tea party candidate knows that the challenge could cost the Republicans a Senate seat. But even without a primary fight, Collins is probably the Democrats' best pickup opportunity, albeit not a bright one. If Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME) decides to challenge Collins, Collins will have a serious fight on her hands. Pingree won her 2012 race by a 28% margin, but her problem will be getting enough votes in northern Maine (ME-02), where Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME) won by only 16%. Obama won both districts, by margins of 22% and 7%, respectively. The northern part of the state is more conservative than the southern part, and furthermore, Collins hails from the far north.

Mississippi

Unknown	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate Unknown (R)	(D)	Six-term incumbent Thad Cochran wants to be a seven-term incumbent in Jan. 2015. But first he has to beat back a tea party challenger 35 years his junior, state senator Chris McDaniel. Conservatives will go all out for McDaniel because Mississippi is do red that no matter who the Republicans nominate, he is certain to win the general election. Consequently, there is no downside to nominating a far-right candidate, whereas, say, in Georgia, nominating the wrong candidate could actually mean defeat in the general election. In any event, no matter what happens, Mississippi will send a Republican to Washington to occupy this seat in Jan. 2015.

Nebraska

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	(D)	Mike Johanns has served two terms as governor or Nebraska, 4 years as George W. Bush's Secretary of Agriculture, and now one term as a U.S. senator. He could easily have been reelected, but decided not to run. A scramble for candidates will now begin, but any Republican will be the heavy favorite in this very red state.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
James Inhofe (R)	(D)	James Inhofe has been active in Oklahoma politics since 1967, when he was first elected to the state House of Representatives. He is extremely conservative, even voting against a 2005 bill that prohibits the U.S. government from torturing people in its custody. He also has a 0% rating from the Human Rights Campaign. But the people of Oklahoma seem to like him: he has gotten 57% of the vote in each of his most recent three Senate elections and is likely to get about the same percentage in 2014.

Oklahoma

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	(D)	Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) is retiring at the end of this session of Congress to battle cancer, generating a special election in Nov. While neither the Democratic nor Republican candidates are known yet, it is a foregone conclusion that the Republican will win the general election. An opportunity like this is is sure to entice one or more tea party candidates to enter the race.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lindsey Graham (R)	(D)	Lindsey Graham has occasionally said things or done things that arch conservatives do not like, so he will be primaried, but South Carolina is so red that it is hard to imagine the Democrats picking up this seat, especially since their bench is so thin there. So far no primary opponents with the name recognition and bank balance to take on a sitting senator have shown up, but they still could.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tim Scott (R)	(D)	After former senator Jim DeMint's surprise resignation from the Senate to run the Heritage Foundation (and possibly prepare for a 2016 presidential run), Gov. Nikki Haley appointed Rep. Tim Scott to fill out DeMint's seat until a special election in Nov. 2014. Scott is black. If the Democrats nominate a white person, we could have the unusual situation of a black Republican against a white Democrat. This would put racist Republicans in a real pickle. Some of them might not vote or go for the white person. On the other hand, Scott is likely to face a primary challenge and might not survive until the general election.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lindsey Graham (R)	(D)	Lindsey Graham is an outspoken conservative, but that may not be enough to save him from a primary against a tea party candidate. Conceivably, the former senator from South Carolina, Jim DeMint could even finance the tea party candidate, which would be quite a sight. However, even if Graham is defeated in a primary, the Democratic bench in South Carolina is so thin that any Republican who doesn't claim rape is God's will could probably win. That said, Graham hasn't even been renominated yet. He will have to face off against at least four very conservative candidates in a primary. These include state senator Lee Bright, businessman Richard Cash, former (losing) candidate for lieutenant governor Bill Connor, and Nancy Mace, the first woman to graduate from The Citadel. Of course with so many foes, they may split the vote badly and allow Graham to squeak through.

Tennessee

Unknown	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	(D)	By Tennessee standards, Lamar Alexander is something of a moderate. Nevertheless, in 2008, he carried 94 of Tennessee's 95 counties, losing only in majority-black Haywood County in Western Tennessee. He racked up 67% of the vote in the process. He does have to get past a tea party candidate, state senator Joe Carr, in a primary, but Alexander is well funded should probably be able to do that. A Carr win would be an upset. It is hard to see the Democrats coming up with anyone who could knock him off.

Texas

Unknown	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	(D)	As the Latino population of Texas continues to grow rapidly, some day it may become a purple state, but that day won't be in 2014. If San Antonio mayer, Julian Castro, is the Democratic nominee, the Republican may win by a smaller margin than usual, but he will still win. Probably the GOP nominee will be the incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), but strange stuff happens in Texas. Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX) is challenging Cornyn in the primary. Stockman is probably to the right of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), if that is possible, and Cruz won a contested primary against an establishment candidate, so anything is possible.

Wyoming

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Michael Enzi (R)	(D)	Wyoming is one of the most Republican states in the country. Michael Enzi could probably be reelected even if he is caught in bed with both a live boy and a dead girl. He is being challenged in a primary by Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, but she doesn't have much of a chance. It is hard to get to the right of Enzi and he is a sitting senator. Besides, much of the establishment is backing Enzi. If Cheney were to win the primary, it would be an enormous upset and seems very unlikely. No matter who the Democrats find to run, Enzi will be reelected

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