News from the Votemaster

Sen. Baucus to Retire

With his announcement that he is not running for a seventh term in 2014, Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) made it even harder for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate in 2015. He is the sixth Democratic senator to announce he is retiring, with five of the six being in states where a competitive election is expected. In addition, Democrats in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, and North Carolina face tough reelection fights. The Republicans need to pick up six seats to gain control of the Senate, something entirely within the realm of possibility, especially given the fact that minority and youth turnout in midterm elections is far lower than it is in presidential election years. All in all, 2014 looks to be a good year for the Republicans, although with the usual caveat that the election is more than a year and a half in the future, which is nearly infinity in political years.

In contrast, no Republican-held seats are in danger. Two Republican senators are retiring, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) and Sen. Mike Johanns (R-NE). While there are likely to be very nasty primaries in both states, there is little doubt that the winner of the Republican primary in each state will ultimately go on to win the general election if he can avoid talking about rape too much. If Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) decides to follow her former colleague Olympia Snowe into retirement, the Democrats will pick up the seat, otherwise not. The chances of a Collins retirement are small though. Snowe was one of the wealthiest members of the Senate and can do anything she wants to now; Collins is surprisingly poor for a senator.

One race that will be talked a lot about is that of minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). He is extremely unpopular in his own state, but Kentucky is so red that against the most likely Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, he would still be the favorite.

Here are the Democratic seats that are in danger. For the complete list of Senate races, click on the Senate candidates link near the top of the page.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mark Begich (D)	(R)	Mark Begich, the former mayor of Anchorage, was personally recruited by then-DSCC chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), even though he had to face then-Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest sitting Republican in Senate history. Stevens was convicted of several felony violations a week before the election, but lost by only 1-point. Stevens' convictions were later thrown out by Attorney General Eric Holder, but by then it was too late. While Stevens won't try to get his old job back (he died in 2010), if Sarah Palin is the Republican nominee, she would be the favorite in this very red state. If Palin doesn't run, any other Republican will at least give Begich a tremendous fight. Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R-AK) would be a tough competitor, but the 2010 GOP Senate nominee, Joe Miller, would give Treadwell fits in the primary if he decides to run.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mark Pryor (D)	(R)	In 2002, Mark Pryor defeated incumbent senator Tim Hutchinson by 7 points and became so popular the Republicans didn't bother to field a candidate against him in 2008. He is unlikely to be so lucky in 2014. Former governor Mike Huckabee might go for the GOP nomination as could one of the three Republican congressmen, Rick Crawford, Timothy Griffin, or Steve Womack.

Iowa

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Tom Harkin will be 75 years old 2 weeks after the 2014 election. He decided that he's been around long enough and will not run for reelection. Iowa is a swing state, and Harkin's departure will set off a chain reaction in both parties as they start dealing with it. Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is the likely Democratic nominee and probably the strongest one the Democrats have. The most likely Republican candidate is Rep. Steve King (R-IA), a conservative firebrand who once said: "I've never heard of a girl getting pregnant from statutory rape or incest." We all know how such comments worked out for Todd Akin, and many Iowans know all about that. The only plausible female candidate, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), has decided against running.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mary Landrieu (D)	(R)	Mary Landrieu could be in for a hard time in 2014. Lousiana is a deep red state and many black Democrats left the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and never returned. Nevertheless, she managed to win in 2008 and has fought hard for the state. Working in her favor is that the Landrieu name is well known in Louisiana. Her father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor of New Orleans, a post now occupied by her brother Mitch Landrieu. Gov Bobby Jindal (R-LA) would be a formiddable opponent, but most people think he is going to run for President in 2016 rather than senator in 2014. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) might run. Despite the redness of the state, Landrieu is still a slight favorite at this point due to her long incumbency and the popularity of her father and brother.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) could have won reelection easily but he decided to retire. He would have been 80 on election day. His retirement will set off a free for all in both parties. Neither party has a front runner, although Rep. Gary Peters probably has a slight edge among Democrats. For the GOP, it may be hard to find a strong candidate, given the Democratic lean of the state.

Montana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Max Baucus is a moderate Democrat in a state that votes for Republicans in presidential elections but has a long history of voting for Democrats at the state level. He has decided that six terms is enough and he is retiring in 2015. This is going to be a tough seat for the Democrats to hold unless popular governor Brian Schweitzer decides to go for it. If Schweitzer declines to run, the Republicans will probably pick up the seat.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kay Hagan (D)	(R)	Kay Hagan beat then senator Elizabeth Dole in the Democratic wave year of 2008 by 8 points, but she was helped a lot by a disatrous ad run by Dole accusing Hagan of taking money from the Godless Americans PAC. The ad was so over the top, that it became a major campaign issue. She won't be so lucky this time, but of course she is now an incumbent in this swing state. North Carolina has no shortage of representatives and statewide officers who might challenge her.

South Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Tim Johnson had prostate cancer in 2004 and a cerebral hemorrhage in 2006 while doing a live radio interview. Although he won reelection in 2008, he decided that the sympathy vote would be smaller this time and he bowed out. Possible Democratic candidates are former representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Brendan Johnson, the senator's son, who is a U.S. attorney. For the Republicans, it is possibly former governor Mike Rounds or Rep. Kristi Noem. Rounds has already announced his candidacy; Noem hasn't made a decision yet. This state is one the Republicans' best pickup opportunities.

West Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Jay Rockefeller, who will be 77 on election day 2014, decided to call it quits. His retirement will set off a chain reaction in West Virginia politics. All six statewide officers are Democrats, and any or all of them might decide to run for his seat. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, daughter of former West Virginia governor and former felon, Arch Moore, has announced that she is running for the Republican senatorial nomination. On the day she announced a bevy of conservatives immediately attacked her for being too liberal, even though she is by far the best known Republican in the state. A bloody Republican primary is almost a certainty at this point. If the winner comes out broke and the Democrats can settle on a candidate quickly, they might be able to hold the seat. Otherwise it is a likely Republican pickup.

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---The Votemaster