News from the Votemaster

Romney Doubles Down on Foreign Policy

After two days of being hit hard by Democrats, Republicans, and the media for falsely accusing the Obama administration of appeasing jihadists, Mitt Romney is continuing to attack Obama on foreign policy. He said that other countries no longer respect America and if he were President nobody would dare attack American property abroad or kill American diplomats. Obama shot back that Romney is shamelessly politicizing a sensitive diplomatic matter.

What Obama didn't say is that Romney's model of the world no longer holds. In the past, wars and attacks were governmental affairs. Country A invaded country B and then country B could send its army or air force to wreak havoc with country A. But like so many other government functions, in parts of the world, war has largely been turned over to the private sector. Al Qaeda, other terrorist groups, and the jihadists who killed the American ambassador to Libya, J. Christopher Stevens, are all private sector organizations, not government ones. As a result, you can't just bomb them because you can't find them. If Romney were President, it is very doubtful that the people who killed Stevens would be quaking in their boots because they know very well he couldn't easily find them, so there is nothing to bomb. Furthermore, many jihadists believe that dying while fighting for their cause will get them into heaven, so threatening them with death doesn't work nearly as well as threatening atheists. Saber rattling only works these days when it is entire countries you are threatening and then only when the threat is credible, that is, when the adversary believes you might actually do what you are threatening to do. It is clear that Romney fully subscribes to the theory of provocative weakness, which basically means that weakness allows potential enemies to spring up and thrive since they are not scared of being mercilessly rooted out.

On another foreign policy subject, Romney said yesterday that he would not let Iran get close to building a nuclear weapon, but he didn't say what he would do if Iran called his bluff and kept working on one. It is thought that key Iranian nuclear facilities are deep underground underneath a mountain, making them difficult or impossible to take out by bombing. Would Romney start another war in the Middle East by sending American troops there? He didn't say. He also said he would indirectly help Syrian rebels by sending arms to other Arab countries, which could then send them to Syria. In general, Romney's foreign policy is full of bluster, which the Republican base loves, but if he were President he would quickly learn that bombing the world into submission is not really an option and would probably end up doing the same things Obama is doing.

Politically, Romney should be more careful. Polls show that some people think he would be better than Obama at creating jobs, but virtually no poll shows people have more faith in him on foreign policy. His blunders this week only made it worse.

As an aside to this whole story, no one except Los Angeles County knows who really is behind the film that caused the riots. All movies made in Los Angeles must have a permit and this one was made in Los Angeles and had a permit. All officials are saying for the moment is that the permit was issued to "Media for Christ" but they won't release it for 10 days. The permit lists the names of the producer, director, and writer.

Advice from Conservatives to Romney

As Obama maintains his small, but consistent, lead in the polls, many conservative media outlets are starting to fret about Romney losing. But fretting won't get them anywhere, so they are offering free advice to him on what he must change to win. Politico has summarized this advice in this video.

• Get specific about what he would actually do as President
• Get rid of his 57-page economic plan and replace it with five talking points
• Get tough: no more floating like a butterly, instead sting like a bee
• Move to the right and stand tall for conservative positions
• Get rid of your current staff and replace them with real conservatives

The trouble with this advice is that Romney is not only trying to please his base, but also make a play for moderates and each of these pieces of advice has a downside. Getting specific, for example, about which programs and deductions he would cut to balance the budget while slashing taxes will bring out howls of protest from the affected groups. To some extent, he has already abandoned his 57-page economic plan and reduced it to saying lower taxes will stimulate job creation. As to stinging like a bee, his entire campaign, starting with the primaries has been as negative as any in memory. It is hard to see him attacking Obama any more than he is already doing. Standing up for far-right positions (e.g., no abortions ever, under any conditions) is sure to turn off all the moderates he needs. Finally, getting rid of his staff and replacing them with true conservatives this late in the game will lead to complete chaos. The real message here is that conservatives are worried that (1) Romney won't win and (2) even if he does, he won't do what they want.

Parties Settle on Early Voting in Florida

When the state of Florida decided to drastically cut back the early voting days, the Dept. of Justice sued the state because under the 1964 Civil Rights Act, any changes to voting laws in five Florida counties with a long history of racial discrimination (Collier, Hardee, Hendry, Hillsborough, and Monroe) require DoJ approval. The lawsuit has now ended when the state and DoJ agreed to new voting hours. Early voting is an explosive issue in Florida because in 2008, 54% of the black voters used early voting, whereas only 27% of white voters did so. Cutting back on early voting would have the effect of reducing the black vote, which is heavily Democratic. The agreement says that the five affected counties must keep the polls open between 7 A.M. and 7 P.M. for 8 days prior to the election.

The L Word Banned in Wisconsin

No, not that L word. Many people have already called Rep. Paul Ryan a liar as a result of his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. Republicans have called Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), the Democratic candidate for the open Senate seat being left behind by the retirement of Sen. Herb Khl (D-WI) a liberal and a leftist, but haven't called her a lesbian, even though she has never made her sexual orientation a secret. If elected to the Senate, she would be the first openly gay senator. When a staffer sent out an email last week showing Baldwin at a Gay Pride parade, the Republican nominee, former governor Tommy Thompson, quickly distanced himself from it. Thompson currently leads in the polls.

Fed To Buy Bonds, Stock Market Surges

Yesterday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, announced that the Fed will buy $85 billion in long-term bonds by the end of the year and will continue to buy bonds and keep interest rates low through mid 2015. When this news was released, the stock market shot up to the highest level since Dec. 2007, with the Dow Jones Industrials index closing at 13,540. Thus we have the odd economic situation of high unemployment while the stock market is doing great. Surprisingly, the Democrats haven't talked about it much. When the question "Are you better off than 4 years ago" question comes up, they could point out that for many people, their retirement and investment portfolios have done very well under Obama.

Married Voters Like Romney, Singles Like Obama

An analysis of over 90,000 interviews Gallup conducted this summer shows that among married voters, Romney is favored 54% to 39%. Among unmarried voters, Obama is ahead 56% to 35%. At least part of the explanation probably lies in the fact that married voters are more likely to be religious, white, over 30, and earning over $60,000 a year, all of which correlate with increased support for Republicans generally.

Today's Presidential Polls

We have 12 presidential polls in nine states today. The main news is that Obama is ahead in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. The only swing state where Romney leads is Missouri. Actually, this is not really news since the situation has more-or-less been like this for months. Obama's lead in these states is small and within the margin or error, but it has been stable that way for so long that there is little doubt he is slightly ahead in the key states. Obama's small but persistent lead may explain why Romney is now hitting Obama on foreign policy for the first time. He may have concluded that attacking on the economy simply isn't working as too many people still blame George W. Bush for the mess, not Obama.

State	Obama	Romney		Start	End	Pollster
California	55%	33%		Sep 09	Sep 12	Pepperdine U.
Colorado	49%	47%		Sep 10	Sep 12	ARG
Florida	48%	46%		Sep 12	Sep 12	Rasmussen
Florida	49%	44%		Sep 09	Sep 11	Marist Coll.
Minnesota	51%	44%		Sep 10	Sep 11	PPP
Missouri	45%	48%		Sep 11	Sep 11	Rasmussen
New Hampshire	45%	40%		Sep 04	Sep 10	U. of New Hampshire
New York	62%	34%		Sep 04	Sep 09	Quinnipiac U.
Ohio	47%	46%		Sep 12	Sep 12	Rasmussen
Ohio	48%	47%		Sep 10	Sep 12	ARG
Ohio	50%	43%		Sep 09	Sep 11	Marist Coll.
Virginia	49%	44%		Sep 09	Sep 11	Marist Coll.

Today's Senate Polls

Democratic Senate Candidates appear to be safely ahead in California, Florida, Minnesota, New York, and Ohio, but in Virginia it's a tie. Many observers doubt that George Allen can run ahead of Mitt Romney in Virginia, though, so if Romney loses Virginia, it is very likely to sink Allen as well.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
California	Dianne Feinstein*	52%	Elizabeth Emken	30%			Sep 09	Sep 12	Pepperdine U.
Florida	Bill Nelson*	51%	Connie McGillicuddy	37%			Sep 09	Sep 11	Marist Coll.
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar*	55%	Kurt Bills	36%			Sep 10	Sep 11	PPP
New York	Kirsten Gillibrand*	64%	Wendy Long	27%			Sep 04	Sep 09	Quinnipiac U.
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	49%	Josh Mandel	42%			Sep 09	Sep 11	Marist Coll.
Virginia	Tim Kaine	46%	George Allen	46%			Sep 09	Sep 11	Marist Coll.

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster