News from the Votemaster

Obama: Romney Shoots First, Aims Later

Just in case you haven't followed the Egypt/Libya story, very briefly, on Sept. 10, a Florida pastor, Terry Jones, put a video on YouTube announcing the Sept. 11 screening of a video mocking the Prophet Mohammed. Many people in the Muslim world, not realizing that the U.S. government cannot control crazy hatemongers, were furious. Early on Sept. 11, the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, which was worried about being attacked, tweeted: "US Embassy condemns religious incitement," which was clearly aimed at Jones. Later in the day demonstrators stormed the embassy in Cairo and tore down the American flag. In Libya, a mob stormed the American consulate in Benghazi. Jihadists took advantage of this and killed the American Ambassador to Libya, J. Christopher Stevens, and three other diplomats.

Shortly thereafter (but before he knew what had actually occurred), Mitt Romney said in part: "It's disgraceful that the Obama Administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks." Romney's statement was reinforced by a tweet from RNC Chairman Reine Priebus at 12:01 A.M. on Sept. 12 saying: "Obama sympathizes with attackers in Egypt. Sad and pathetic." Here is a minute-by-minute timeline of the fast-moving events.

The only problem is that Romney's and Priebus' statements are completely false. Both Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned the attacks in the strongest possible words and certainly didn't sympathize with the attackers. Romney is now under fire from the media and also from Republicans for making a false statement before he knew the facts. Republican leaders in the House and Senate, realizing that Romney blundered by introducing raw politics at a time when Americans would normally come together, have been conspicuously silent.

On Wednesday, Obama spoke with reporters and said: "And I think -- you know, Governor Romney seems to have a tendency to shoot first and aim later. And as president, one of the things I've learned is you can't do that." This event is certainly going to reverberate for several days and raise the question of whether Romney has the temperament to be Commander-in-Chief. It is sure to come up during the third presidential debate, just before the election, and which will be about foreign policy.

It could have been different. As Fred Kaplan at slate.com put it: "Imagine if Romney had called President Obama, asked how he could be of assistance in this time of crisis, offered to appear at his side at a press conference to demonstrate that, when American lives are at risk, politics stop at the water's edge." Romney would have appeared presidential and Obama's equal at a joint press conference. Instead, he appears to be trying to profit from a tragedy.

On the betting site Intrade, the chance of Romney's winning the election dropped from 43% to 36% in 2 days.

Republicans Are Deeply Worried about Ohio

In an era when partisanship trumps everything, the National Review Online has a surprisingly pessimistic article about Mitt Romney's chances in Ohio. The National Review, founded by the late William F. Buckley, Jr. in 1955, has been probably the leading intellectual voice of the conservative movement for decades. Normally it sings the praises of Republicans in a careful, reasoned way (as opposed to, say, redstate.com, where invective and blind hate are the order of the day, every day). So an article that bemoans the fact that Romney is way behind in Ohio and says it would take an incredible amount of good luck for that to change is surprising. The article quotes Ed Rollins, a long-time Republican operative and Ronald Reagan's campaign manager saying: "This year, it's going to come right down to the wire, and Romney is going to have to push all of the right buttons to win there." The article concludes with Rollins also saying: "Look, if we don't win Ohio, we don't win the presidency." All in all, the bottom line is while it ain't over 'til it's over (per Yogi Berra), right now things don't look so good for Romney in Ohio.

Voter ID Laws Could Affect Downticket Races

While it is rare for a statewide election to be determined by fewer than 1000 votes (although George W. Bush won Florida in 2000 by 537 votes), congressional and local offices sometimes are this close. Consequently, the oral arguments today before the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in a lawsuit filed by a 93-year-old great grandmother could have impact on many races. The plaintiff in the case being heard today, Viviette Applewhite, never had a driver's license and can't get her birth certificate so the law effectively disenfranchises her, in violation of the state constitution. No matter what the court rules in Pennsylvania, there are legal challenges to recent changes to election laws all over the country, and these challenges are likely to continue past the election, possibly leading to chaos in some races.

Florida Finds Far Fewer Noncitizens on the Voter Rolls than Expected

The Florida Dept. of State announced yesterday that by comparing its voter rolls to a federal immigration data base it had found 207 people who were not citizens. Earlier this year, Florida began purging the rolls, claiming there were thousands of noncitizens registered to vote. The purge has been the subject of lawsuits because many citizens were incorrectly purged due to having the same name as someone known to be a noncitizen. The 207 noncitizens registered represent 0.002% of Florida's voters. The controversy is about whether preventing many citizens from exercising their constitutional right to vote is a good tradeoff for scrubbing such a small number of noncitizens from the rolls.

Libertarian Gary Johnson on the Ballot in 47 States

The candidate of the Libertarian Party, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, is on the ballot in 47 states. He is in court fighting to get on the remaining three: Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Johnson is not expected to win any state or even get 10% of the vote in any state, but he could pull 1-2% from Romney in states like Colorado and New Hampshire and possibly tip the states to Obama.

Third-party candidates always poll much better than they actually do. When called by a pollster, people who support Johnson are happy to announce their support since it helps their candidate and costs nothing. But when they are in the voting booth they have to decide whether a protest vote is really worth helping the candidate they hate win. Usually they come down for the lesser of two evils and don't make a protest vote.

Libertarians are fairly consistently for freedom from government, so they don't fit the modern left-right axis well. They are against taxes and government regulation of business, but are also against laws prohibiting abortions and the use of marijuana for the same reasons: it's none of the government's business. Nevertheless, Republicans dissatisfied with Romney are more likely to see him as a suitable protest vote than Democrats unhappy with Obama. The party's Website is www.lp.org, where a small quiz is offered so you can see if you are actually a Libertarian without realizing it.

Incomes Are Back to 1989 Levels

A new report from the Census Bureau shows that the 2011 median family income of $50,054 is lower than the inflation-corrected 1989 median family income of $50,624. Many economists have realized for a long time that the U.S. economic problems are much deeper than the housing bubble and current recession. The causes and possible cures are the subject of much (political) debate, but some of the possible causes are:

• Globalization. Europe is as advanced as the U.S. and Asia is catching up fast and jobs can be moved anywhere
• Technology. Companies are automating many jobs and telecommunications makes it easier to outsource others
• Inequality. High wages for the educated and weak unions means the people at the bottom get less than they used to
• Debt and government. Conservative economists put the blame on big government and too many public services

Obama and the Democrats believe the first three items are the real causes and seek the solution in a better educated workforce and more equality among social classes. Romney and the Republicans say the problem is that the U.S. is becoming more like a European-style social welfare state and that has to be reversed. No matter what the cause, in international rankings of standard of living, the U.S. is no longer an undisputed #1. In fact, in five major indices, it is not even in the top three.

Index	U.S. Rank	Out of
Human Development Index	4	172
Purchasing power	7	183
GDP	9	183
Quality-of-Life Index	13	111
Human poverty index	17	19

The Speech Ann Romney Didn't Give

While Ann Romney got generally good marks for her speech at the Republican National Convention, she may have blown her opportunity to do what she was supposed to do: humanize her husband. Judith Grey has written an excellent piece on what she should really have said. She should have focused on her multiple sclerosis and how her husband stood by with unwavering support through good times and bad times. Off stage he once said to her: "I don't care how sick you are. I don't care if you're in a wheelchair. I don't care if I never eat another dinner in my life. I can eat cereal and toast and be just fine. As long as we're together, everything will be OK." That is infinitely more powerful than the vague generalities she used in her speech. It could have moved female voters to tears and maybe even into the Republican column. But she barely mentioned her illness.

It is hard to imagine that while planning her speech the Romneys didn't think of this approach, but Mitt is notoriously private and probably vetoed anything this personal. It is certainly possible that he genuinely didn't think it would have much impact.

Today's Presidential Polls

Monday we had a poll showing that Obama's lead in New Mexico was down to 5 points, but another poll today puts it back in double digits, where it has been most of the year, confirming that New Mexico has become a blue state and ceased to be a swing state. Today's Michigan poll strongly suggests that the state is not in play, despite it being the state where Romney was born and his father was governor.

State	Obama	Romney		Start	End	Pollster
California	57%	35%		Sep 09	Sep 11	SurveyUSA
Michigan	47%	37%		Sep 08	Sep 11	EPIC MRA
Montana	45%	50%		Sep 10	Sep 11	PPP
New Mexico	53%	42%		Sep 07	Sep 09	PPP
Washington	53%	42%		Sep 07	Sep 09	PPP

Today's Senate Polls

Today's Senate polls have good news for the Democrats. California, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico are going to be easy wins. Montana is still close, but now the Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is a tad ahead. But probably the most important poll is in Missouri, where Todd Akin's statement about "legitimate rape" looks like it is going to take him down. He has until Sept. 25 to petition a court to remove him from the ballot but he has said over and over he's staying in. If he stays in and Tester beats Rehberg by a hair, the Democrats will almost certainly retain control of the Senate.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
California	Dianne Feinstein*	55%	Elizabeth Emken	37%			Sep 09	Sep 11	SurveyUSA
Michigan	Debbie Stabenow*	49%	Pete Hoekstra	38%			Sep 08	Sep 11	EPIC MRA
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar*	55%	Kurt Bills	34%			Sep 06	Sep 09	SurveyUSA
Missouri	Claire McCaskill*	49%	Todd Akin	43%			Sep 11	Sep 11	Rasmussen
Montana	Jon Tester*	45%	Denny Rehberg	43%			Sep 10	Sep 11	PPP
New Mexico	Martin Heinrich	50%	Heather Wilson	41%			Sep 07	Sep 09	PPP

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster