News from the Votemaster

Biden Ends Democratic Freakout

After President Obama's lackluster performance in the first presidential debate, Democrats were tearing their hair out, wondering if Obama was actually interested in having a second term. He seemed bored and afraid to fight Romney. Those accusations will not be leveled at Joe Biden for his performance in the vice-presidential debate. Biden was at the top of his game, fired up, attacking Rep. Paul Ryan at every turn, and raising all the points Obama failed to raise. He did what Obama should have done and failed to do: fire up his own base while at the same time appearing reasonable to independents.

In 2008, Biden had to be very polite with Sarah Palin, lest he offend women by attacking her. He had no such constraints this time and he hit Ryan over and over. When Ryan said he was against the stimulus, Biden pointed out that the administration received two letters from Ryan personally asking for funds for Wisconsin companies. When Ryan criticized Obama on Iran, Biden asked Ryan to name one thing Romney would actually do differently, and Ryan couldn't. When Ryan said that his voucher program would save Medicare, Biden looked directly into the camera and said: "Who do you trust on this?" When Ryan made the mistake of mentioning President Kennedy, Biden shot back: "So, now you're Jack Kennedy?"

Ryan was pretty much playing defense the whole time. At one point Ryan said something Biden didn't like and Biden called it "malarkey." Instantly, it was the top search term on Google. Biden dominated the stage, constantly interrupting Ryan and talking over him, exactly the same thing Romney did last week to dominate the stage.

Several snap polls were held just after the debate. The OverTheShoulder.com poll showed Biden won the debate 65% to 35%. The CBS/GfK poll of uncomitted voters gave Biden a clear victory of 50% to 31%. However, a CNN/ORC poll of people who watched the debate (not all of whom were necessarily even voters) gave Ryan a slight edge 48% to 44%

What was also noteworthy is what was said in the spin room after the debate. The Democratic spinners talked about how Biden rebutted everything Ryan said on Iran, taxes, abortion, and everything else. Republican spinners didn't talk much about the substance of the debate but focused on criticizing Biden's body language and manner, calling him rude, disrespectful and unprofessional.

The moderator, Martha Raddatz, referred to Ryan as "Mr. Ryan" rather than the normal "congressman" (except one time she slipped up). This form of address was explicitly chosen by Ryan, presumably to avoid reminding the voters that he serves in that loathesome institution, Congress. In contrast, in the first debate, Romney was addressed as "governor." However, Biden kept referring to Ryan as "congressman" and sometimes a sarcastic "my friend," which he is decidedly not.

Except for her one slip-up using the term "congressman," Raddatz was totally in control, unlike presidential debate moderator, Jim Lehrer, who let the candidates trample all over him. Her questions were piercing and to the point and she followed up when she didn't like the answers. Her performance was an order of magnitude better than the hapless Lehrer's.

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post made up a list of winners and losers:

Winners

• Joe Biden's last 15 minutes. He was measured, passionate, and heartfelt
• Political Junkies. This was a debate for the ages, with content and fights on both sides
• The term "my friend." If they were friends before, Ryan probably ran to his computer to defriend Biden afterwards

Losers

• Biden's first 75 minutes. While his base loved him, he might might have gone overboard with derisive smiles
• Undecided voters. If they were expecting a polite and civil discussion of the issues, they must be disappointed
• Nonverbal communication. The candidates didn't seem to realize that they were on camera when they weren't talking

In the end, we might cite Wm. Shakespeare and describe the debate as "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." People rarely make voting decisions based on who the Vice President would be. Nevertheless, if Biden is able to stop Obama's freefall, he will have bought some time until next Tuesday's debate between the top guys.

Today's Presidential Polls

State	Obama	Romney		Start	End	Pollster
California	53%	39%		Oct 07	Oct 09	SurveyUSA
Colorado	47%	48%		Oct 04	Oct 09	Quinnipiac U.
Florida	44%	51%		Oct 08	Oct 10	Mason Dixon
Florida	48%	47%		Oct 07	Oct 09	Marist Coll.
Illinois	55%	36%		Oct 04	Oct 08	Market Shares
Massachusetts	55%	41%		Oct 09	Oct 11	PPP
North Carolina	48%	51%		Oct 09	Oct 09	Rasmussen
New Jersey	51%	40%		Oct 04	Oct 08	Global Strategy
Nevada	47%	45%		Oct 06	Oct 09	Suffolk U.
Ohio	48%	47%		Oct 10	Oct 10	Rasmussen
Ohio	51%	45%		Oct 07	Oct 09	Marist Coll.
Pennsylvania	47%	45%		Oct 08	Oct 08	Pulse Opinion Research
Pennsylvania	50%	42%		Oct 04	Oct 08	Global Strategy
Virginia	47%	48%		Oct 07	Oct 09	Marist Coll.
Virginia	48%	48%		Oct 08	Oct 08	Pulse Opinion Research
Virginia	51%	46%		Oct 04	Oct 09	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	50%	46%		Oct 08	Oct 08	Pulse Opinion Research
Wisconsin	50%	47%		Oct 04	Oct 09	Quinnipiac U.

Today's Senate Polls

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
California	Dianne Feinstein*	54%	Elizabeth Emken	35%			Oct 07	Oct 09	SurveyUSA
Florida	Bill Nelson*	52%	Connie McGillicuddy	39%			Oct 07	Oct 09	Marist Coll.
Massachusetts	Elizabeth Warren	49%	Scott Brown*	47%			Oct 10	Oct 10	Rasmussen
Massachusetts	Elizabeth Warren	50%	Scott Brown*	44%			Oct 09	Oct 11	PPP
New Mexico	Martin Heinrich	52%	Heather Wilson	39%			Oct 08	Oct 08	Rasmussen
Nevada	Shelley Berkley	37%	Dean Heller*	40%			Oct 06	Oct 09	Suffolk U.
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	48%	Josh Mandel	43%			Oct 08	Oct 08	Pulse Opinion Research
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	52%	Josh Mandel	41%			Oct 07	Oct 09	Marist Coll.
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey*	49%	Tom Smith	45%			Oct 09	Oct 09	Rasmussen
Virginia	Tim Kaine	44%	George Allen	47%			Oct 08	Oct 08	Pulse Opinion Research
Virginia	Tim Kaine	47%	George Allen	46%			Oct 07	Oct 09	Marist Coll.
Virginia	Tim Kaine	51%	George Allen	44%			Oct 04	Oct 09	Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin	47%	Tommy Thompson	45%			Oct 08	Oct 08	Pulse Opinion Research
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin	48%	Tommy Thompson	46%			Oct 04	Oct 09	Quinnipiac U.

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster