News from the Votemaster

First Debate Is Tonight

It is do-or-die time for Mitt Romney tonight. With another batch of swing state polls showing Obama ahead everywhere, tonight's debate is his first--and maybe only--chance to turn the race around. He's promised zingers and provided a few in the speech he gave in Colorado Monday:

• Obama doesn't just like picking winners and losers. He likes picking losers
• We've had 43 straight months with unemployment above 8 percent, and what does the president have to say to all this? He says `forward.' I think `forewarned' is a better term
• He's out of ideas, he's out of excuses, and on November 6th you're going to put him out of office
• He's making us more and more like Europe. I don't want to be like Europe. Europe doesn't work in Europe

The Republican base will lap it up and cheer each one. But crude putdowns of the President are not likely to convince many undecided voters to vote for Romney and are even less likely to make potential Obama voters switch sides.

Probably the most clever remark of any debate was the one Lloyd Bentsen made to Dan Quayle in the 1988 vice-presidential debate: "Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy, I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." Quayle was stopped in his tracks. But it didn't change the election results. In January 1989, Quayle was inaugurated as Vice President, not Bentsen. In other words, even a very clever remark or two is not likely to affect the election and ham-handed ones may do more damage than good.

A lot also depends on moderator Jim Lehrer and how hard he pushes the candidates. If he asks Romney, for example, to name one tax loophole he would close as President and Romney refuses, Lehrer could point out that he didn't answer the question. In one of the primary debates, Newt Gingrich got into a fight with moderator John King. But in a debate where Romney has to act presidential, he has to avoid that at all costs.

In addition to listening to the candidates' words, television viewers also react to their gestures and body languages. Here is a guide.

Politico has a list of things to watch for in the debate.

• Can Romney win the first half hour? If not, it may be too late
• Can Obama attack and remain both presidential and likable?
• How do "47%" and "Libya" play?
• Has Obama forgotten how to debate? It's been 4 years after all
• Will Bill Clinton show up? Will Romney use him for a good cop bad cop routine?

Pennsylvania Judge Blocks Voter ID Law

A Pennsylvania judge blocked the state's new law requiring voters to show government-issued photo ID before being allowed to vote. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which sent it back to the judge for the final decision. Now he had made it: ID will not be required. This decision is a major victory for Obama and a major loss for Romney since up to 10% of the state's voters--nearly all Democrats--might have been prevented from voting by this law. Now it is virtually certain that Obama will carry Pennsylvania.

In other states, similar laws have been enjoined, blocked, or weakened. They have been removed entirely in Wisconsin and Texas. In addition, early voting has been restored in Florida. All in all, the hopes Republicans had of suppressing Democratic turnout are likely to be dashed.

Romney Hints at Limiting Deductions to $17,000

Yesterday, Mitt Romney gave a hint of one thing he might do to recapture some revenue after lowering tax rates. Romney suggested allowing taxpayers to have total deductions for mortgage interest, charitable contributions, state and local taxes, and other items be limited to $17,000. This proposal is sure to generate howls of protests from bankers, charities, and state governments and would be hard to get through Congress. Nevertheless, it is Romney's first attempt at filling in the details of his tax plan.

Obama Getting 70% of Latino Voters

A new CNN poll of likely Latino voters shows that 70% of them will vote for Obama and only 26% for Romney. This is even better for Obama than 2008, when he won 67% of the Latino vote. In 2004, 53% of Latinos voted for John Kerry.

Early Voting Has Started in Ohio

Early in-person voting has now started in Ohio, one of the three most important swing states (along with Florida and Virginia). Currently, Obama leads there, with different polls giving numbers in the 5-10% range. Obama hopes to bank as many votes as possible now while he has such a large lead. To kick off his "vote early" campaign, Obama sent his wife, Michelle, to address a rally in Cincinnati.

Today's Presidential Polls

State	Obama	Romney		Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	42%	46%		Sep 25	Sep 26	Moore Consulting
Florida	46%	43%		Sep 27	Sep 30	Suffolk U.
North Carolina	49%	47%		Sep 29	Oct 01	SurveyUSA
New Hampshire	54%	39%		Sep 27	Sep 30	U. of New Hampshire
New Mexico	51%	40%		Sep 27	Sep 27	Rasmussen
Rhode Island	57%	33%		Sep 26	Sep 29	Fleming and Assocs.
Virginia	47%	39%		Sep 19	Sep 28	Roanoke Coll.

Today's Senate Polls

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	Richard Carmona	40%	Jeff Flake	43%			Sep 25	Sep 26	Moore Consulting
Florida	Bill Nelson*	40%	Connie McGillicuddy	34%			Sep 27	Sep 30	Suffolk U.
Ohio	Sherrod Brown*	49%	Josh Mandel	41%			Sep 27	Sep 30	PPP
Rhode Island	Sheldon Whitehouse*	56%	Barry Hinckley	30%			Sep 26	Sep 29	Fleming and Assocs.
Virginia	Tim Kaine	47%	George Allen	37%			Sep 19	Sep 28	Roanoke Coll.

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster