News from the Votemaster

Wisconsin Recall Election Today

For only the third time in U.S. history a sitting governor is facing a recall election. Today the voters of Wisconsin have to decide if they want to keep Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), who has taken an extremely hard line against the state's unions, which got them angry enough to successfully collect sufficient signatures to force a recall election. Walker is facing former Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (D). The other governors who faced recall elections were Lynn Frazier, governor of North Dakota, who was recalled in 1921 and Gray Davis, governor of California, who was recalled in 2003. Here are the most recent six polls of the Wisconsin recall election.

If the polls are to be believed, Scott Walker will keep his job. However, as with primary elections, turnout on special elections tends to be low so a lot depends on which side is better at turning out its supporters.

No matter what happens today, Wednesday morning a lot of soothsayers will be examining the results for clues to November as if they were the entrails of a goat. A Walker victory today means a Romney win in November and a Barrett win means Obama will get a second term they will all say. It seems unlikely. It often happens that people vote for a Democrat for one office and a Republican for another. If everybody voted a straight party line, then each state would either have a Republican governor and two Republican senators or a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. In reality, 14 states have a Republican governor and two Republican senators, 11 states have a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators, and 25 states have some other combination. So in half the states, the voters don't vote a straight ticket, including Wisconsin. Here is the list of sitting governors and senators (this list is also on the Data galore page in case you look for it later).

Five Primaries Today

Although Mitt Romney has more than enough delegates to capture the Republican nomination, the primary process is continuing to roll along, with primaries in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota today. In a number of cases there are contested primaries for the Senate and House, so there will no doubt be substantial turnout. Incumbent vs. incumbent elections are happening in New Jersey and California. Also, in New Mexico, there are tough Democratic and Republican primaries in New Mexico for the Senate seat of retiring senator Jeff Bingaman.

Today's Presidential Polls