News from the Votemaster

Can Pawlenty or Portman Bring in His State?

Insiders are expecting Mitt Romney to go with a conventional choice for his running mate. Picking a new and exciting candidate, like Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) or Gov. Susan Martinez (R-NM) runs the danger of having an unvetted candidate make a blunder, which calls Romney's judgment into question. Unlike John McCain, Romney was never a daredevil fighter pilot. He always tries to minimize risk. For this reason, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) are the most likely picks. They are solid Midwesterners who are unlikely to embarrass Romney.

One of the things a Veep candidate is supposed to do is bring in his own state. What are the chances of this happening? The table below shows how Minnesota and Ohio have gone since World War II.

			Minnesota			Ohio
Year	Democrat	Republican	Dem %	GOP %	Winner	Dem %	GOP %	Winner
2008	Obama	McCain	54	44	Dem	51	47	Dem
2004	Kerry	Bush	51	48	Dem	49	51	GOP
2000	Gore	Bush	48	46	Dem	46	50	GOP
1996	Clinton	Dole	51	35	Dem	47	41	Dem
1992	Clinton	Bush	44	32	Dem	40	38	Dem
1988	Dukakis	Bush	53	46	Dem	44	55	GOP
1984	Mondale	Reagan	50	49	Dem	40	59	GOP
1980	Carter	Reagan	47	43	Dem	41	52	GOP
1976	Carter	Ford	55	42	Dem	49	48	Dem
1972	McGovern	Nixon	46	52	GOP	38	60	GOP
1968	Humphrey	Nixon	54	42	Dem	43	45	GOP
1964	Johnson	Goldwater	64	36	Dem	63	37	Dem
1960	Kennedy	Nixon	51	49	Dem	47	53	GOP
1956	Stevenson	Eisenhower	46	54	GOP	39	61	GOP
1952	Stevenson	Eisenhower	44	55	GOP	43	57	GOP
1948	Truman	Dewey	57	40	Dem	50	49	Dem

As can be seen from the table, Minnesota is a very blue state. In the 16 presidential elections since WWII, the Democrats have carried the state 13 times. Only when there is a Republican national landslide (Eisenhower twice and Nixon's reelection) can a Republican win Minnesota. In contrast, the Republicans have won Ohio 10 of the 16 times. In particular, in close elections (and sometimes in not-so-close elections), the Democrat wins Minnesota while the Republican carries Ohio. All this goes to say that having Pawlenty on the ticket probably buys nothing in terms of winning the Veep's home state, while if Portman can add a few points to Romney's total in Ohio, that might swing the state. The chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, Bob Bennett, says that having Portman on the ticket is worth 3 to 5 points.

Americans Frustrated with Campaign Already

It is only July and Americans are already fed up with the campaign. Three-quarters of them say it is more negative than ever before and getting worse, according to a new CNN poll. Obama has been hitting Romney on his taxes and off-shoring jobs while Romney has been skewering Obama on the economy. Neither one has run any positive ads. Normally, a challenger will start off introducing himself to the country by running positive ads, highlighting his accomplishments and goals. There has been virtually none of that this year. It's all negative.

Obama Goes after Romney with White Working-Class Voters

Obama has no chance at all of winning a majority of white working-class men. Nevertheless, he has spent more money ($66 million) specifically trying to make Romney an unacceptable alternative to these voters than for any other purpose. In one ad, workers at a paper plant that was in operation 24 hours a day talk about how Romney came in and closed the plant, firing all the workers, while making $100 million for Bain. In another ad, a series of headlines points out jobs Romney has shipped overseas and his own bank accounts in Switzerland, Bermuda, and the Cayman Islands. If Obama can make Romney toxic enough with these voters, they may stay home on election day, depriving Romney of votes he needs in swing states.

Record Number of Openly Gay Candidates Running for Congress

The change has been swift but largely under the radar. Gerry Studds was forced out of the closet in 1983 and Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) came out voluntarily in 1987. Before them, no member of Congress was on record as being gay or lesbian. The first nonincumbent gay or lesbian to win a seat in Congress was Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) in 1998. Baldwin is now running for the Senate (the first openly gay or lesbian candidate to actually have a serious chance of winning) but what is more amazing is how many other gay or lesbian candidates there are for Congress and how little any one cares about their sexual orientation. It is like a Catholic, Jew or black running for office; it isn't much of an issue. Among candidates given a real shot at winning are Kyrsten Sinema (D) in AZ-09, Sean Maloney (D) in NY-18, Mark Pocan (D) in WI-02, Mark Takano (D) in CA-41, and Richard Tisei (R) in MA-06. While there are several openly gay members of Congress now, all are Democrats. A victory by Tisei over Rep. John Tierne (D-MA) would make Tisei the first openly gay nonincumbent elected to Congress as a Republican. Arizona's Jim Kolbe was reelected after he came out, though. Wikipedia has a list of other gay and lesbian "firsts."

Hillary Clinton Leading in Iowa--in 2016

Politicians and their minions are often (rightfully) accused of being unable to think about the long term, but at least one pollster, PPP, is breaking out of the mold. It is already polling Iowa for the 2016 caucuses. Hillary Clinton would get 60% of the Democratic vote, with Joe Biden at 18%. Next come Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) and Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren at 3% each. Clinton has said a hundred times she is not running. If she really means it, then Biden leads Cuomo 36% to 14%. If neither Clinton nor Biden run, it is Cuomo over Warren 20% to 11%.

On the Republican side, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum are at 17%, with Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) at 16%. However, if Romney loses in 2012, his running mate will probably become the favorite in 2016.

Today's Senate Polls

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	I	I %	Start	End	Pollster
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar	55%	Kurt Bills	31%			Jul 17	Jul 19	SurveyUSA

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---The Votemaster