Three Republican Senate Seats Up for Grabs     Permalink

Last week we looked at Democratic Senate seats that are likely to be competitive. Today let's look at Republican-held seats that might flip. These three are at the top of everyone's list.

Maine

Challenger	Challenger		Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	Angus King (I)	With Olympia Snowe's sudden retirement, this seat suddenly became the Democrat's #1 pickup opportunity. When former Democrat and former governor Angus King announced he was running as an independent, it shook up the race completely and scared off all the serious Democrats who were afraid of a three-way race which would allow the Republican to eke out a win. King has refused to say which party he will caucus with, but observers expect him to caucus with the Democrats, like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). As a consequence, the Democratic primary is among relatively unknown candidates and the national party is probably going to ignore the winner and tacitly support King. In contrast, the Republican primary features all the state's heavyweight Republicans, including the Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Attorney General.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Scott Brown (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	This is the seat second most likely to flip in the Senate. Scott Brown won a special election to fill the seat of the late senator Ted Kennedy, but he had the good fortune to be running against a lazy and arrogant candidate who felt that campaigning was beneath her dignity. That won't happen again. Most likely he will face Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor and strong consumer rights advocate, who will pull in tons of out-of-state money and who took the lead in the polls within a month of entering the race. Still, Brown has a lot of money in the bank. It will be close.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Dean Heller (R)	Shelley Berkley (D)	Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) when the Republican Senate caucus basically forced John Ensign out of the race. The caucus did this due to Ensign's long-term affair with the wife of one of his staffers followed by a very clumsy attempt to buy everyone's silence. Nevada has become a purple state which Obama carried easily in 2008. With him on the top of the ticket again in 2012, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV), the likely Democratic nominee, has a good shot at knocking him off. In addition, voters tend not to like appointed senators except in very red or very blue states, which Nevada is not.

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