Senate Races 2012     Permalink

While the 2012 election is still over a year away, one fact stands out right now: there are 23 Democratic Senate seats up for election and only 10 Republican seats. Furthermore, of the eight retirements, announced so far, six are Democrats (counting Joe Lieberman as a Democrat here) while only two Republicans are retiring. In addition, one of the open seats, that of Kent Conrad (D-ND), is virtually certain to go Republican, and a few of the others will be close. In contrast, both of the open Republican seats, those of Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), are likely to stay in Republican hands. All in all, this means the Democrats will have to fight very hard to hang onto the Senate, which they now control 53-47.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones following. There is some analysis at the bottom of the page. This page can be reached in the future using the "All Senate races" link on the menu below the map above.

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Democratic held seats

California

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Dianne Feinstein (D)	(R)	Dianne Feinstein (DiFi to her many admirers) won her last Senate race by 25 points and is unlikely to face much of a challenge. The Republicans don't even have a good candidate. In 2010, the Republicans did have a good (read: extremely wealthy) Senate candidate (Carly Fiorina) and the Democrat, Barbara Boxer, still won by 10 points.

Connecticut

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) lost the Democratic primary in 2006 but ran as an independent and won, largely because the Republicans put up such an awful candidate that most of the Republicans in the state voted for Lieberman. That will not happen in 2012. Many Connecticut Democrats truly hate Lieberman for not accepting the will of the voters, so he would almost certainly go down to defeat in 2012. To prevent being embarrassed, he is retiring. Both parties are going to have nasty primaries this time. Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz will go after each other in the Democratic primary, while 2010 multimillionaire candidate Linda McMahon will take on former representative Chris Shays in the Republican one. But no matter who wins the primaries, Connecticut is a moderately blue state, so the Democrat is favored.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tom Carper (D)	(R)	Delaware is a reliably Democratic state and Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) is well known and popular. If the Republicans can't find a serious candidate and if perennial candidate Christine O'Donnell runs again and gets the nomination, Carper will win in a landslide. But even if a serious Republican runs, Carper will almost certainly win.

Florida

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bill Nelson (D)	(R)	Florida is the mother of all swing states and will be bitterly fought over in 2012 as usual. If Rick Perry is the GOP nominee, Sen. Bill Nelson's position on the issues will fit on a bumper sticker: "Republicans want to end Social Security" and Nelson will probably beat any Republican. If Romney is the nominee, however, it could be a very close race, depending on who the Republican senatorial nominee is. In 2006, Nelson faced the deeply flawed and highly unpopular Katherine Harris. This time a slew of candidates are going after the nomination and a lot depends on how bloody the primary is and who wins it.

Hawaii

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Hawaii is a highly Democratic state and even with an open seat, the Democrat is strongly favored although there will be a primary between Rep. Maizie Hirono (D-HI) and former representative Ed Case. The Republicans' only prayer is that former Hawaii governor Lingle Lingle (R-HI) runs, but that is far from certain and even if she did, she would be the underdog.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Ben Cardin (D)	(R)	Maryland is a reliably Democratic state that Ben Cardin won by 10 points over former Lt. Gov. (later RNC chairman) Michael Steele. Unless the Republicans can magically find a very strong candidate, Cardin is probably safe.

Michigan

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Debbie Stabenow (D)	(R)	Michigan has the highest unemployment in the country and a lot depends on who the voters choose to blame. If they feel it is Obama's fault, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) will be in big trouble. But if Obama pushes his jobs bill hard and the congressional Republicans gleefully kill it, their brand could become quite toxic in the state giving Stabenow an easy victory.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Amy Klobuchar (D)	(R)	Although Minnesota is fundamentally a blue state (the last time a Republican presidential candidate carried the state was Richard Nixon in 1972), Republicans do win senatorial and gubernatorial elections fairly regularly. If the Republicans had a strong candidate, they might be able to give one-term senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) a good scare at least, but they don't so they won't.

Missouri

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Claire McCaskill (D)	(R)	Missouri is perennially a swing state that Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) barely won in 2006. She is definitely in the fight of her life this time. In fact, Missouri is probably the Republicans' third best shot at a Senate pickup (after North Dakota and Nebraska). Her one advantage here is that the Republicans understand her vulnerability very well, so there are two top-flight contenders for the nomination, Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO) and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. If their primary gets nasty, the net effect could be to lower both of their approval ratings enough to let McCaskill slip by again,

Montana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jon Tester (D)	Denny Rehberg (R)	Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) narrowly won in 2006 against an incumbent senator, Conrad Burns, but one fond of making outrageous statements. This time Tester will go up against the state's only congressman, Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT), who has better mouth control and has won statewide races since 1990. It is likely to be a close race.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Ben Nelson (D)	(R)	In case anyone was wondering why Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) has been such a gigantic pain in the tush to the Democrats for the last two years, the reason should now be clear: he has to win an election in an extremely red state in 2012. Perhaps his slogan will be: "You know for sure that I oppose Obama, who knows about my opponent?" But before the Republicans can take on Nelson, they have to pick a candidate, and a serious multiway primary is expected. But no matter who wins it, Nelson is in deep trouble simply because Nebraska is so red.

New Jersey

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bob Menendez (D)	(R)	Although New Jersey elects Republican governors fairly regularly, like other states in the Northeast, it is largely a Democratic bastion and Sen. Bob Menendez shouldn't have too much trouble getting reelected, especially since the Republicans do not have a top-tier opponent.

New Mexico

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	The surprise retirement of Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) means that the Republicans have a shot at winning a seat in this increasingly blue state. However, neither party has an obvious candidate, so there will be competitive primaries in both parties. What happens in the general election will depend a lot on who the candidates are.

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	(R)	Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) was appointed to Hillary Clinton's seat when she was named Secretary of State. At first, many on the left were very negative about her as a result of her voting record in the House when she represented a rural district near Albany. But after joining the Senate, she moved sharply to the left, saying her job was to represent her constituents and now she represented a lot more of them. The voters bought that and she won a special election in 2010 with ease. She will win in 2012 equally easily and will be seen as a rising star within the Democratic Party.

North Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	Rick Berg (R)	With the unexpected retirement of Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), the Democrats are virtually certain to lose this seat, no matter who wins the Republican primary. Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND) has already won statewide here and shouldn't have any trouble doing that again if he is the nominee, which is likely.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Sherrod Brown (D)	(R)	Ohio is perennially a swing state at all levels but Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is a tough campaigner who unseated an incumbent Republican senator, Mike DeWine, in 2006. If the Republicans can find a well-known, well-financed candidate, and if the wind is blowing in the right direction, they might be able to make him sweat, but otherwise he will probably hang on.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bob Casey (D)	(R)	Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is a Blue Dog Democrat (opposes abortion, etc.) so it will not be easy for the Republicans to label him as "too liberal." James Carville once described Pennsylvania as: "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between." Casey is just liberal enough that he is tolerated in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and just conservative enough that he is tolerated in between. Even if the Republicans had a solid candidate, which they don't, he would be tough to take down, especially in a presidential election year in which turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will be high.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)	(R)	Rhode Island is a heavily Democratic state so Sheldon Whitehouse is unlikely to face a serious challenge.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bernie Sanders (D)	(R)	Bernie Sanders is the only openly socialist member of Congress, but he is immensely popular in Vermont and will win in a walk, no matter who the Republicans put up against him. Although technically Sanders is an independent, he caucuses with the Democrats and they won't run anyone against him, leading to the odd situation of no Democrat running for the Senate in a very blue state.

Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tim Kaine (D)	George Allen (R)	Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) won a real squeaker against George "Macaca" Allen in 2006 and probably could have beaten him again this time, but decided that politics isn't so much fun after all. Since Allen, a former senator and former governor of the commonwealth, is the likely Republican nominee, the Democrats had to find a serious candidate quickly. They settled on Obama's handpicked DNC chairman, former Virginia governor Tim Kaine. Kaine is well liked in the state and a lot will depend on how well Obama does in the state, which he carried in 2008. Virginia has become a purple state, largely due to an influx of northerners in the counties close to D.C., and both the presidential and senatorial races are expected to be close.

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Maria Cantwell (D)	(R)	Washington is becoming an increasingly blue state and unless the Republicans can come up with a top-tier candidate, Maria Cantwell will probably be relected, albeit by a modest margin rather than a landslide.

West Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joe Manchin (D)	(R)	Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) won a special election to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (to the extent anyone can replace the legendary Byrd) but now he is running for a full term. Before he was senator, he was an immensely popular governor. He has crossed swords with the Obama administration enough times that the Republicans will have a tough time tying him closely to the President, who is not popular in West Virginia. The Republicans' only real chance to capture the seat is if Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) decides to go for a promotion, but so far she hasn't indicated that she is interested although she might run for governor instead. If Capito runs for governor or stays in the House, Manchin is probably safe.

Wisconsin

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tammy Baldwin (D)	Mark Neumann (R)	The Democrats were hit by a double whammy here. On the one hand, their well-entrenched, extremely wealthy, popular incumbent, Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI) decided to retire at 76, even though he could have been easily elected to the Senate another two or three times if he lived long enough. To make this worse, their strongest candidate by far, former senator Russ Feingold, decided not to run for his seat, even though he would have been the odds-on favorite. Most likely, Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) will get the Democratic nomination and former congressman Mark Neumann will get the Republican nod. Wisconsin politics are very roiled at the moment, with the Democrats planning to mount a recall campaign against Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), so anything can happen here. In any event, Kohl's retirement turned a sure-fire Democratic hold into a pitched battle.

Republican held seats

Arizona

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jeff Flake (R)	(D)	A lot depends on how fast Gabby Giffords recovers from her gunshot wounds. If she is able to run for this open seat, she would get a huge sympathy vote from people who see her as gutsy. If the likely Republican candidate, Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), were to say she isn't able to do the job, she'd win even bigger. But if Giffords simply isn't up to a statewide race, Flake will probably win because the Democrats don't have a Plan B. Giffords' friends in Congress are already raising money for her, either for a Senate race or a House race, so she won't have to start from scratch.

Indiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Lugar (R)	Joe Donnelly (D)	Lugar is one of the most respected people in the Senate, which almost certainly opens the possibilty that he will be primaried. If a tea party candidate beats him in a primary, this could become a close race (Obama carried Indiana in 2008), but if Lugar survives any primary challenges thrown at him, he will be reelected with ease. His biggest primary threat is state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who might well lose if Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is the Democrat, which is likely.

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Olympia Snowe (R)	(D)	Olympia Snowe is popular in Maine and will probably win if she is the nominee. Her problem is that she might not be. As one of the most 'liberal' Republicans in the Senate, she is likely to face a primary challenge. If a tea party party candidate wins that, this is going to be a repeat of the Delaware 2010 Senate race, in which the Republicans decided to nominate a candidate who had no chance (Christine O'Donnell) above one (Mike Castle) who was a shoo-in.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Scott Brown (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	This is the seat most likely to flip in the Senate. Scott Brown won a special election to fill the seat of the late senator Ted Kennedy, but he had the good fortune to be running against a lazy and arrogant candidate who felt that campaigning was beneath her dignity. That won't happen again. Most likely he will face Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor and strong consumer rights advocate, who will pull in tons of out-of-state money and who took the lead in the polls within a month of entering the race. Still, Brown has a lot of money in the bank. In addition, Brown might have to face a primary challenge. If he loses that, then Warren will be the overwhelming favorite to win the general election.

Mississippi

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Roger Wicker (R)	(D)	The Democrats will probably find a sacrificial lamb to put up against Wicker, possibly someone who wants statewide exposure to run for some other office in the future, but no matter who they put up, Wicker will be reelected in a landslide.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Dean Heller (R)	Shelley Berkley (D)	Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) when the Republican Senate caucus basically forced John Ensign out of the race due to his long-term affair with the wife of one of his staffers followed by a very clumsy attempt to buy everyone's silence. Nevada has become a purple state which Obama carried easily in 2008 and with him on the top of the ticket again in 2012, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV), the likely Democratic nominee, has a good shot at knocking him off. In addition, voters tend not to like appointed senators except in very red or very blue states, which Nevada is not.

Tennessee

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Bob Corker (R)	(D)	Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) is a shoo-in for reelection as the Democratic bench in Tennessee is not deep at all.

Texas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	With Sen. Kay Hutchison (R-TX) retiring, the Democrats have an outside shot of winning this seat because the Latino population keeps growing and is heavily Democratic. Also, nearly a dozen Republicans are running in the primary and they could bloody each other pretty badly and end up tired and broke. The Democrats don't have a candidate either, but a free for all is less likely.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Orrin Hatch (R)	(D)	Winning statewide elections in Utah is something Democrats don't do very often so it is a safe bet that a Republican will be elected to the Senate in 2012. But which one? Orrin Hatch is a deeply conservative Republican, but so was Bob Bennett but that didn't save him from coming in third at the state Republican convention in 2010 and thus not even making it to the primary ballot. Could that happen to Hatch? It's possible, but Hatch sees this coming whereas Bennett didn't, so he is better prepared. The Democrats don't have a candidate yet, but it hardly matters since he will lose anyway.

Wyoming

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John Barrasso (R)	(D)	Sen. John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate in 2007 by then governor Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) after the death of Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY). Normally a governor would appoint a member of his own party to fill a Senate seat, but Wyoming law states that the state party of the senator who died or resigned must pick three candidates and the governor must choose one of them. Freudenthal picked Barrasso as the weakest of the three, but he still won a special election in 2008 to fill out the remainder of Thomas' term. Now he is running for a full term and will win easily, no matter who the Democrats put up.

Again, it is early in the cycle and a lot can change, but for the moment, here is a list of states to keep an eye on because they might flip.

How might this play out? If we assume that only the above seats are in play, then 45 of the 53 Democratic seats and 45 of the 47 Republican seats are "safe." If we make the (arbitrary but plausible) assumption that Massachusetts, Nebraska, and North Dakota flip, we have 1 more Democrat and 2 more Republicans, for 46D and 47R. Then if we assume Bill Nelson barely hangs on, it becomes 47-47, with six tossups (MO, MT, NV, NM, VA, and WI). If they split evenly, the Senate would be tied 50-50, giving the new Vice President the deciding vote.

But this analysis is very tentative and does not take into account the O'Donnell effect, in which a completely unelectable loonie knocks off a Republican who couldn't possibly lose (yes Olympia, that's you) in a primary.

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