Hot House Races in 2012

Below is a list of House races likely to be top priority in 2012. Most of these were very close (5% or less in 2008) or have some other characteristic that makes them competitive. If you click on the district name, you will get a map showing where the district is. Clicking on a photo takes you the candidate's Website. Clicking on the name brings you to the candidate's Wikipedia page and clicking on (D) or (R) takes you to the state party's Website. See also the House retirements page.

AL-02      PVI: R+16

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Bobby Bright (D)	Martha Roby (R)	Bobby Bright was mayor of Montgomery and pulled off an upset by winning this otherwise conservative district against state representative Jay Love by 0.6%. At the same time, John McCain won the district by 26%. The Republicans will be gunning for Bright in 2012. The Republican candidate is Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby.

AL-05      PVI: R+12

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Mo Brooks (R)	Steve Raby (D)	Parker Griffith, a former state senator and now freshman representative won an open seat in this Republican district as a Democrat. Then he jumped ship and became a Republican. Unfortunately for him, the Republican voters in the district wanted a real Republican, so he was defeated in the primary. Even without an incumbent, the district is safe for the GOP.

AZ-05      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Mitchell (D)	David Schweikert (R)	Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-AZ) was swept into Congress in the 2006 Democratic wave. He represents a moderately Republican district to the north and east of Phoenix. He won with 53% of the vote in 2008 and is definitely threatened this time due to the tilt of the district. Mitchell's opponent is Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who is a typical conservative Arizona Republican.

AZ-08      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gabrielle Giffords (D)	Jesse Kelly (R)	Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), the only member of Congress with a spouse on active duty in the Armed Forces and the only one married to an astronaut, was swept into Congress in the 2006 Democratic wave. Although a Blue Dog, she voted for the stimulus bill and health-insurance reform and has a 100% rating from NARAL and D+ from the NRA, so she is really more of a bluish dog than a dark blue one. Her opponnent, Jesse Kelly, is a former Marine who fought in Iraq and who later worked in his family's business. His problem is that she is much better known in the Tuscon-based district and he doesn't have a personal fortune to spend on TV ads. This is the kind of district that Republicans must win to capture the House: a Republican-oriented district represented by a freshman or sophomore Democrat.

AR-01      PVI: R+8

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Chad Causey (D)	Rick Crawford (R)	With the pending retirement of long-time Democratic congressman Marion Berry from Arkansas 1st district, the Republicans have an excellent chance at a pickup. The winner of the GOP primary was Rick Crawford, who manages a large John Deere dealership and who also is a TV broadcaster on matters agricultural. His opponent, Chad Causey, is Berry's chief of staff.

AR-02      PVI: R+5

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Joyce Elliott (D)	Tim Griffin (R)	Vic Snyder's retirement puts this seat in play and gives the Republicans a chance to pick up a Democratic seat. However, this is the most Democratic-friendly district in Arkansas, so it is not a done deal.

AR-04      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Ross (D)	Beth Rankin (R)	Despite being in a fairly Republican district, Blue Dog Mike Ross didn't even face a Republican challenger in 2008. This time he has an opponent in conservative small business owner Beth Rankin. She checks all the boxes for Southern Republicans (NRA member, pro-life, anti-union, anti-tax) but despite the tilt of the district and this being a Republican year, Ross is still ahead in the polls, thus again demonstrating the power of incumbency. If Republicans are to capture the House, this is the kind of district they need to win.

CA-03      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dan Lungren (R)	Ami Bera (D)	Dan Lungren barely won his election in 2008, getting under 50% of the vote in a district that Obama and McCain each got 49% in, pretty much the definition of a swing district. Lungren's challenger this time is physician Ami Bera. Needless to say, Bera supports the new health-insurance law and Lungren voted against it and calls it a catastrophe. Parts of the district are rural and very Republican but parts are close to Sacramento and contain many government workers, who are generally Democrats. It could be close.

CA-04      PVI: R+10

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom McClintock (R)	Clint Curtis (D)	This was an open seat in 2008 after Rep. John Doolittle retired in a series of scandals that tied him closely to convicted felon Jack Abramoff. It was a bitter contest and McClintock won by 0.5% against retired Air Force pilot Charlie Brown. Could be close again in 2012 despite the Republican tilt of the district.

CA-18      PVI: D+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dennis Cardoza (D)	Michael Berryhill (R)	A conservative Democrat and cochair of the Blue Dog Coalition, Cardoza is about as liberal as a Democrat can be and still get elected in Calfornia's Central Valley. He used to work for former representative Gary Condit, but when Condit was in the news every day with stories that he murdered his lover, Chandra Levy, Cardoza challenged Condit in a primary and won. Condit was later cleared and an illegal immigrant from El Salvador indicted. It was Cardoza's good luck that his boss was having an affair with someone who was later murdered by a third party with Condit taking the heat although innocent of the killing. Cardoza's opponent, Michael Berryhill, is a local farmer but is not well known in the district.

CA-44      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ken Calvert (R)	Bill Hedrick (D)	This race really wasn't on the radar as everyone expected nine-term congressman Ken Calvert to cruise to another 20-point win, as he did in 2004 and 2006. But he won by only 2 points against an unknown challenger. However, that challenger, Bill Hedrick, is a lot better known and more experienced now. He is running again and this time the DCCC will back him with expertise and funds.

CO-04      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Betsy Markey (D)	Cory Gardner (R)	Betsy Markey toppled firebrand Marilyn Musgrave in 2008 in this moderately Republican district largely because Musgrave was so over the top that even Republicans couldn't stand her any more. The Republican candidate is state representative Cory Gardner, who is doing a good job of fundraising. However, Markey is no slouch; she raised $950,000 through Sept. 2009. But given the lean of the district, it could be close.

DE-AL      PVI: D+7

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Glen Urquhart (R)	John Carney (D)	When Rep. Mike Castle decided to run for the Senate, he pretty much turned his seat over to the Democrats. Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) has announced he is running for it but the Republicans had no one of any stature to put up against him. The vacuum was filled by Glen Urquhart, a wealthy businessman who made his fortune in real estate. Urquhart is a tea party favorite, but has little chance in blue Delaware. This is one of the few seats that will flip from red to blue this cycle.

FL-02      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Allen Boyd (D)	Steve Southerland (R)	Blue Dog and Vietnam veteran Allen Boyd, who has been in the House since 1997 representing this district in the eastern panhandle, originally voted against the health-insurance reform bill, but did vote for the final bill. His opponent, funeral home owner Steve Southerland, has attacked him bitterly for that, possibly because death is good for his business. Boyd won easily in 2008 despite the Republican lean of the district, but with the wind against him now, he is in a tougher fight, but his long incumbency may be enough to save the day for him.

FL-08      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Alan Grayson (D)	Dan Webster (R)	Alan Grayson was a a lawyer with a special interest in suing defense contractors like Halliburton. As a brand new freshman, he started making waves in the House practically on day 1 when he asked the Fed Vice Chairman, Donald Kohn, how much bailout money had been given to specific banks and what collateral the public got in return. Kohn was not amused. Grayson later described the Republican health plan as: "die quickly." This made him a big hero among the netroots who will raise money for him, but his district is pretty evenly split, so remarks like this may cut both ways. Former Florida House Speaker Daniel Webster will give him a real run for his money.

FL-10      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Bill Young (R)	Charlie Justice (D)	Bill Young has been elected to the House 18 times, usually with not much opposition, but in 2012 his luck may be running out. State Senate minority leader Charlie Justice (D) has announced a challenge to Young that Young will not be able to ignore. The district, just west of Tampa Bay, is R+01, and with a serious opponent this time, the 78-year-old congressman may decide to retire, leading to a open seat in a swing district. Either way, this once-sure Republican seat is now a tossup.

FL-24      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Suzanne Kosmas (D)	Sandy Adams (R)	As a freshwoman representative who won a tough fight in a somewhat Republican district, Suzanne Kosmas knew she would have a battle on her hands in 2012. There was a bloody three-way Republican primary and a member of the Florida House, Sandy Adams, came out on top. If the party can unify behind her now, she will be a tough opponent, especially since Kosmas voted "yes" on health-insurance reform.

GA-12      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Barrow (D)	Raymond McKinney (R)	This district is highly competitive although Barack Obama took it by 9 points, largely due to the black turnout, which will probably be lower in 2012. The Republicans had a competitive primary complete with runoff and the winner was nuclear power plant manager Raymond McKinney. But the candidates have spent more time opposing the building of a mosque in New York City than talking about energy policy (about which a nuclear power plant manager might have something useful to contribute) or anything relevant to Georgia.

ID-01      PVI: R+18

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Walt Minnick (D)	Raul Labrador (R)	Walt Minnick didn't actually win this seat; rather, the incumbent, Bill Sali lost it due to his confrontational attitude. McCain swept the district by 20 points, so with a better candidate, the Republicans might win it back. Their candidate is Puerto Rico-born Raul Labrador, a member of the state legislature.

IL-10      PVI: D+6

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Robert Dold (R)	Dan Seals (D)	With Mark Kirk running for the Senate, his seat in this swing district in the Chicago suburbs opened up. The Democratic nominee is Dan Seals, who has already run twice for the seat. The Republican is Robert Dold.

IL-17      PVI: D+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Phil Hare (D)	Bobby Schilling (R)	Although only a freshman in 2008, the Republicans didn't bother to field a candidate against Phil Hare in 2008 but this time the former congressional aide will face Bobby Schilling, the owner of a local pizzeria. As a Democratic incumbent in a swing district, Hare will have to work hard, but he is probably the slight favorite.

IN-08      PVI: R+8

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Trent Van.Haaften (D)	Larry Bucshon (R)	The incumbent congressman, Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) gave up a seat he could probably have defended to run for Evan Bayh's vacant Senate seat, something he probably won't get. State representative Trent Van Haaften (D) and heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R) are going to duke it out in this Republican district in the southwestern part of the state. While normally a prosecutor would have the edge over a doctor, the Republican tilt of the district gives Bucshon the advantage.

IN-09      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Baron Hill (D)	Todd Young (R)	Baron Hill was first elected to Congress in 1998, then won reelection in 2000. In 2002 he barely defeated trucker Mike Sodrel, losing to Sodrel in 2004. In 2006 he beat Sodrel again. In 2008 it was Sodrel vs. Hill again, and Sodrel won. Finally Sodrel gave up and somebody else is opposing Hill this time. The somebody is lawyer and Veteran Todd Young. The district is fairly Republican, so Hill can't just rest on his laurels despite his incumbency.

KS-03      PVI: R+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Stephene Moore (D)	Kevin Yoder (R)	With the retirement of Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS), the Democrats may lose their only House seat in Kansas. While Moore has had enough, his wife, a registered nurse, is going running in his stead. She will face Kevin Yoder, a lawyer and member of the Kansas state House, who won the Republican primary. Given the tilt of the district, state, and year, he is the favorite.

LA-02      PVI: D+25

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joseph Cao (R)	Cedric Richmond (D)	This is a hugely Democratic district that the Republican won because the incumbent, "Dollar Bill" Jefferson was caught with $90,000 in his freezer. The Democrats almost certainly win it back in 2012. Two state representatives, Cedric Richmond, a state representative, won the right to challenge Cao and almost certainly take back the seat. This may be one of the Democrats' very few pickups.

LA-03      PVI: R+12

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Ravi Sangisetty (D)	Jeff Landry (R)	With Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) now running for the Senate against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), Melancon's seat is up for grabs in this heavily Republican (R+12) district. In the great Louisiana tradition, there was a free-for all in the primaries. Now that the dust has settled, Jeff Landry (R) is expected to win the general election just due to the tilt of the district.

LA-04      PVI: R+11

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Fleming (R)	(D)	John Fleming, a physician, won this race by a mere 350 votes in a runoff, the closest House race in the country. Given that kind of margin, the Democrats will try hard to knock him off.

MD-01      PVI: R+13

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Frank Kratovil (D)	Andy Harris (R)	In 2008, this was an open seat because a Republican challenger, physician and state legislator Harris, knocked off the Republican incumbent, Wayne Gilchrest from the right in the primary and then proved too much to stomach in the general election, even for a very Republican district. Nevertheless, Harris is trying again and this time, with the wind blowing the other way, he might make it. After all, in 2008, he lost by only 3000 votes in a very Republican district.

MI-01      PVI: R+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Gary McDowell (D)	Dan Benishek (R)	The incumbent, Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), gave the Democrats fits during the debate on health-insurance reform. He was fanatical that nothing in the bill could lead to abortions in any way, shape or form, and even opposed allowing people getting government help paying for insurance to buy an abortion rider with their own money. Then he decided to quit politics altogether, probably because he couldn't take all the heat he was getting. Career surgeon Dan Benishek (R) and state representative Gary McDowell (D) will fight it out in November. It's a swing district and could go either way.

MI-07      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Schauer (D)	Tim Walberg (R)	Mark Schauer knocked off incumbent Tim Walberg here by about 2%, but that is close enough that the Republicans will mount a serious challenge to him, especially since it is "their" district (R+2). In particular, Walberg wants his job back so we get a rematch of 2008, but in a very different climate.

MI-09      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gary Peters (D)	Rocky Raczkowski (R)	Freshman Gary Peters got only 52% of the vote in 2008, although the district is slightly Democratic. As a result, he is a target. He is in slightly better shape than Mark Schauer, though, because his district is D+2 instead of R+2. His opponent wisely decided not to use the URL www.raczkowskiforcongress.com but www.rockyworksforus.com.

MN-03      PVI: R+0

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Erik Paulsen (R)	Jim Meffert (D)	Freshman Erik Paulsen won this exactly evenly split district with only 48% of the vote in a three-way race in 2008. There is some evidence that the Independence Party candidate hurt the Democrat more than he hurt Paulsen. Furthermore, Obama carried the district with 52% of the vote. All in all, Paulsen will definitely be on the Democrats' radar in 2012. Their candidate is Jim Meffert, the executive director of the Minnsota Optometric Association, who has never run for public office before. He is clearly not as strong a candidate as the Democrats would have liked, but in an evenly split district he has a shot at it.

MN-06      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Michele Bachmann (R)	Tarryl Clark (D)	In 2008 Michele Bachmann looked like she would win easily until she made some incendiary remarks calling for McCarthy-like investigations of members of Congress for alleged anti-Americanism. These comments raised $1 million for her challenger in 24 hours and he nearly took her down. Democrats really despise her and will go all out to get her in 2012. Although her district is R+7, she is so wacky, that she will really have to fight in 2012. Her challenger is the assistant majority leader of the state Senate, Tarryl Clark. Its certain to be a humdinger with Bachmann calling Clark every name in the book.

MS-01      PVI: R+14

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Travis Childers (D)	Alan Nunnelee (R)	Travis Childers won a special election last year and then won the general election but he will face a far stronger opponent this year in state senator Alan Nunnelee (R) in this heavily Republican district.

NV-03      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dina Titus (D)	Joe Heck (R)	Dina Titus, the former minority leader in the state Senate and unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate in 2006, got only 48% of the vote in 2008, 1% less than Obama although the district is D+2. Her opponent is a doctor and he is against the health-insurance bill. Titus is trying to avoid the subject and wants to focus on the fact that the much-maligned stimulus bill contained the biggest middle-class tax cut in American history. This race is going to be a real barnburner.

NJ-03      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Adler (D)	Jon Runyan (R)	State senator John Adler won this open seat in a swing district in 2008 by 4 points. It is likely to be competitive again in 2012. The Republican is Jon Runyan, whose who career was in pro football, having played for the Houston Oilers and later the Philadelphia Eagles. If the voters want somebody about as far from government as possible, Runyan may be their guy.

NJ-07      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Leonard Lance (R)	Ed Potosnak (D)	Freshman Leonard Lance got just 51% of the vote in a district in which Obama also got 51% of the vote. These numbers alone guarantee a big fight and a close race in 2012. Also, a freshman in the minority won't be able to bring home much bacon in his first term. The person he beat, Linda Stender, has already run twice in this district so the the Democrats are turning to someone new, Ed Potosnak, an (openly gay) high school and college teacher.

NH-01      PVI: R+0

Incument	Challenger	Notes
Carol Shea-Porter (D)	Frank Guinta (R)	Carol Shea-Porter was first elected to the House in the 2006 Democratic wave, beating incumbent congressman Jeb bradley. In 2008, he challenged her again and she beat him again. Now she has to contend with Frank Guinta, the former mayor of Manchester, the largest city in the state. It is likely to be a hard fought and close race.

NH-02      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Ann Kuster (D)	Charlie Bass (R)	Rep. Paul Hodes is running for the Senate, which enticed the man he beat for the House seat, Charlie Bass, to try to get his old job back. Bass faced and defeated a fire-breathing right-wing radio host, Jennifer Horn (the 2008 nominee) in a very bloody ideological primary. The Democrats nominated a progressive lawyer, Ann Kuster. It will be a real squeaker.

NM-02      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Teague (D)	Steve Pearce (R)	Harry Teague (D) picked up this seat in 2008 when the incumbent, Steve Pearce (R), made an unsuccessful run for the Senate. Pearce now wants his old job back. The district is moderately Republican, so he has a decent shot at getting it, too. It will be a big slugfest.

NY-13      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike McMahon (D)	Michael Grimm (R)	Freshman Mike McMahon won this one in 2008 as a result of serious of freak accidents, starting with the arrest for drunken driving of the incumbent, followed by the discovery that said incumbent had two families, one in New York and one in Virginia. Then the Republican candidate--whose son tried unsuccessfully to get the Libertarian nomination to defeat his father--died and was replaced by someone the top Republican in the district vowed to defeat. Hard for any Democrat to lose under those conditions. Now McMahon has to actually beat a serious Republican in an R+4 district. The guy who won the Republican primary is Michael Grimm, a Marine Corps veteran, who has been endorsed by Sarah Palin. New York is not Alaska and it is far from clear whether her endorsement will play as well on Staten Island as it did in Juneau.

NY-20      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Scott Murphy (D)	Christopher Gibson (R)	Scott Murphy won his seat in a bitterly fought special election to replace Kirsten Gillibrand after she was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's seat in the Senate. The district leans Republican, but Democrats have won the past three elections here, so Murphy certainly has a chance to hang on, but he can expect a serious challenge from career Army officer Christopher Gibson.

NY-23      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bill Owens (D)	Matt Doheny (R)	With the appointment of Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) as Secretary of the Army, a special election was held here last November. The Republicans nominated a moderate who fit the district well. This so infuriated conservatives, that they supported the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, and a few days before the election, the Republican dropped out and the Democrat, Bill Owens was elected, the first Democrat to hold this seat since the Civil War. This time around, the Republicans (just barely) nominated a conservative over Hoffman, but the latter was on the ballot on the Conservative Party line, but then he dropped out giving the Republican a much better shot at it this time.

NY-24      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Arcuri (D)	Richard Hanna (R)	Former prosecutor Mike Arcuri won his second term in 2008 in this slightly Republican district by a mere 2 points, making him a Republican target in 2012. guy he beat in 2008, wealthy businessman Richard Hanna, is back again, but this time with the wind at his back. It will probably be close.

NY-29      PVI: R+5

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Matt Zeller (D)	Tom Reed (R)	New York is a blue state, but upstate districts like this one are hard on Democrats. Eric Massa is a Navy veteran and former Pentagon aide which no doubt helped him get elected. Now that he was felled in a sex scandal, the Democrats have to hunt around for a suitable candidate. Then came up with vet Matt Zeller but he will have a very difficult time against Corning mayor Tom Reed (R).

NC-08      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Larry Kissell (D)	Harold Johnson (R)	In 2006, high school teacher Larry Kissell took on an entrenched multimillionaire Republican congressman, Robin Hayes, in a quest everyone thought was pointless. It was, in the sense that he lost, but only by 329 votes, with no help at from the Democratic Party. In 2008, he ran again and this time got lots of help and won with 55% of the vote. He joined the Blue Dog caucus in the House and is running for reelection against Harold Johnson, a long-time sports journalist on radio and TV. Johnson is running against Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer and barely even mentions that Kissell is his actual opponent.

ND-AL      PVI: R+10

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Earl Pomeroy (D)	Rick Berg (R)	Despite North Dakota being a very Republican state, Earl Pomeroy has represented it as the state's lone representative since 1992. However, this year is going to be his toughest fight ever. His opponent is the former majority leader of the state House. Making the situation even worse for Pomeroy is that the popular governor, John Hoeven, who is running for the Senate seat being vacated by Byron Dorgan, will be on the top of the ticket.

OH-01      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Driehaus (D)	Steve Chabot (R)	This was a close race in 2008, with Driehaus knocking off seven-term congressman Steve Chabot by 2 points. It will be hotly contested in 2012. In fact, Chabot has already announced he wants his old job back. Without Barack Obama on the ballot in 2012 to raise turnout in a district more than a quarter black, Driehaus may have a harder time, but now he is the incumbent, which will help a lot.

OH-12      PVI: D+1

Incument	Challenger	Notes
Pat Tiberi (R)	Paula Brooks (D)	Five-term congressman Pat Tiberi is in swing district and the DCCC has decided to go after him and recruited the president of the Franklin County Board of Commissioners Paula Brooks (D) as the candidate.

OH-15      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mary-Jo Kilroy (D)	Steve Stivers (R)	This was an open seat vacated by Rep. Deborah Pryce. It was a very close race that took weeks to count. Ultimately, Mary Jo Kilroy won on her second try, defeating state senator Steve Stivers by 0.8%. The Republicans want it back and Stivers is their man again. One problem Kilroy will have is that she won on the strength of the vote from the immense Ohio State University in 2008. Students are notoriously flakey voters and if they go party instead of voting on election day 2012, Stivers could win this time.

OH-16      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Boccieri (D)	Jim Renacci (R)	John Boccieri, a long-time Air Force pilot and state representative, saw his chance in 2008 when Ralph Regula, a 36-year House veteran retired. He defeated state senator Kirk Schuring to become the first Democrat to represent the district in 58 years. This year he faces Jim Renacci, a wealthy businessman who made his fortune operating nursing homes.

OH-18      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Zack Space (D)	Bob Gibbs (R)	OH-18 is a decidedly (R+7) Republican district. The seat was formerly occupied by Bob Ney, who resigned in disgrace, which gave Zack Space an easy shot in 2006. The Democratic wave of 2008 made him a sophomore. Now he is on his own. In his favor, though (besides incumbency), is a divided opposition. State senator Bob Gibbs won a contested primary. Still, in such a Republican district, Space has his work cut out for him.

PA-03      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kathy Dahlkemper (D)	Mike Kelly (R)	Kathy Dahlkemper knocked off a seven-term Republican congressman, Phil English, on her first run for public office, and in a slightly Republican district to boot. That says something about her campaigning skills. Nevertheless, the Republicans will try mightily get get back "their" seat. Their candidate is wealthy car dealer Mike Kelly, who is making his first run for public office and can self finance.

PA-06      PVI: D+4

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Jim Gerlach (R)	Manan Trivedi (D)	Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) flirted with running for governor but finally decided to stay put in the House. Physician and Iraq War veteran Manan Trivedi is the Democratic nominee. Obama got 56% of the vote here in 2008 so the Democrats have a shot at unseating Gerlach.

PA-07      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bryan Lentz (D)	Pat Meehan (R)	When Joe Sestak decided to challenge Arlen Specter in a senatorial primary, he left behind an open seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. Two state representatives, Bryan Lentz and Greg Vitali, contended for the Democratic nomination and Lentz won. The Republican nomination went to former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan.

PA-11      PVI: D+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Paul Kanjorski (D)	Lou Barletta (R)	Many people thought this 12-term congressman was a goner in 2008, but he managed to hang on. But the Republicans smelled victory and will come after him hammer and tongs in 2012. In fact, they are running the same guy they ran in 2008, only now with the wind blowing the other way,

PA-12      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Critz (D)	Tim Burns (R)	When Rep. John Murtha died in February 2012, a special election was set for May 18 to replace him. His aide Mark Critz decided to run and won the seat against businessman Tim Burns in this swing district. Now Critz is the incumbent and faces Burns again. Unless the voters have changed their minds about him, since Critz beat Burns once already this year, he has to be considered at least the slight favorite in November.

PA-15      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Charlie Dent (R)	John Callahan (D)	Charlie Dent (R) was elected to the House in 2004 when then-congressman Pat Toomey gave up his seat to make his first run for the Senate. Since the district is slightly Democratic, he will not get a free pass this year. The DCCC recruited Bethlehem mayor John Callahan to run against him. So far, Callahan has outraised Dent, so it could be close.

SD-AL      PVI: R+9

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D)	Kristi Noem (R)	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was elected to the House in 2002 in a special election when the incumbent was convicted of manslaughter and has won every election since, usually by a large margin. Her name is well known in South Dakota since her grandfather used to be governor of the state. She was married in 2007 and had a baby boy in Dec. 2008. While this is not relevant to her politics, it does help her popularity in the state. Her opponent is state representative Kristi Noem, who recently took a big hit when it was revealed that she has had dozens of tickets for speeding, driving without a license, and running stop signs. She also has ignored six summonses to appear in court. Herseth Sandlin has been pounding her on this saying how can you expect someone who has no regard for the laws to write them.

VA-02      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Glenn Nye (D)	Scott Rigell (R)	Glenn Nye got 52% of the vote in an R+5 district, which immediately makes him an NRCC target for 2012. The Republican is a wealthy car dealer, Scott Rigell.

VA-05      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Perriello (D)	Robert Hurt (R)	Republican incumbent Virgil Goode should have won this one easily in 2008, but he put his foot in his mouth and went down to defeat by about 750 votes. This district includes liberal Charlottesville, but also conservative areas outside Charlottesville. State senator Robert Hurt is unlikely to make any such blunders and has a good shot at winning the seat back for the Republicans.

WA-03      PVI: D+0

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Denny Heck (D)	Jaime Herrera (R)	When Democrat Brian Baird announced he was retiring from this swing district, it set off a frenzy in both parties. Heck won the Washington jungle primary with 31% of the vote and will face the runner up, Republican state representative Jaime Herrera in November. Heck is 58. Herrera is 31 and quite attractive, which may explain why polls show her winning big with younger voters, who normally are strongly Democratic.

WA-08      PVI: D+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Reichert (R)	Suzan DelBene (D)	Dave Reichert eked out a win against former Microsoft manager and Internet darling Darcy Burner for the second time in a row. Burner has ruled out a third run. But another Microsoft executive, Suzan DelBene, is going to make a run for it. DelBene is older and far more experienced than the youthful Burner so she has a shot at it in this swing district.

WV-01      PVI: R+9

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Mike Oliverio (D)	David McKinley (R)	Mike Oliverio pulled a surprise upset beating 14-term congressman Alan Mollohan in the May primary. Mollohan was arrogant and corrupt and people apparently had enough of him. Ideologically, Oliverio isn't a big change from Mollohan. He is currently a financial planner but in the past served in the West Virginia House of Delegates. Like Oliverio, McKinley is also a former member of the House of Delegates.

WI-07      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Julie Lassa (D)	Sean Duffy (R)	For unexplained reasons, Rep. David Obey (D-WI), chairman of the all-powerful Committee on Pork (unofficially known as the House Appropriations Committee), is not running for a new term even though he could easily win. The vacancy has created a hot race here between state senator Julie Lassa (D) and Ashland County district attorney Sean Duffy. The district is slightly Democratic, but in a state where even Sen. Russ Feingold is in trouble, Lassa may have to work hard to win.

WI-08      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Kagen (D)	Reid Ribble (R)	In 2006, Kagen and John Gard faced off for the then-open seat being vacated by Mark Green who was then running for governor. Kagen won. Gard, the Speaker of the state Assembly, tried again and lost again. Finally he gave up and Reid Ribble got the nod this time. Ribble is a wealthy roofing contractor who has never run for public office before, which gives Kagen, who is also wealthy, a slight edge despite the slight Republican lean of the district.