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More House Retirements     Permalink

There has been a spate of announcements from House members planning to call it quits at the end of their current terms. These include Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Diane Watson (D-CA), and Vern Ehlers (R-MI). Here is the complete list of seats in which the 2008 winner will not be running for reelection this November. Most are open seats, but some are seats that have been or will be filled by special elections. The winners of these elections are never as secure as representatives who have served at least a full term.

The list is ordered by PVI, with the top entry being the most Democratic district and the bottom one being the most Republican district. The colors reflect the party of the current incumbent, not the 2008 winner. Red lines (Republican-held seats) above D+0 represent possible Democratic pickups. Blue lines (Democratic-held seats) below D+0 represent possible Republican pickups. By this metric, the Democrats have two pickup opportunities and the Republicans have nine. But, of course, in the middle ground, there will be intense battles where the PVI is only a hint of which way it might go.

CD 2008 Winner Party PVI Open? Notes
IL-07 Danny Davis Dem D+35 Yes Running for Cook County President
CA-33 Diane Watson Dem D+35 Yes Could easily be reelected but at 76 she's had enough
FL-17 Kendrick Meek Dem D+34 Yes Running for Mel Martinez' open Senate seat
CA-31 Hilda Solis Dem D+29 No Resigned to become Sec. of Labor
IL-05 Rahm Emanuel Dem D+19 No Resigned to become WH Chief of Staff
AL-07 Artur Davis Dem D+18 Yes Running for governor
FL-19 Robert Wexler Dem D+15 No Joined a nonprofit organization in January 2010
RI-01 Patrick Kennedy Dem D+13 Yes Wants to do something else with his life
HI-01 Neil Abercrombie Dem D+11 Yes Running for governor
CA-10 Ellen Tauscher Dem D+11 No Appointed Undersecretary of State
DE-AL Mike Castle GOP D+7 Yes Running for the Senate
IL-10 Mark Kirk GOP D+6 Yes Running for Roland Burris' open Senate seat
PA-07 Joe Sestak Dem D+3 Yes Running for senator
NH-02 Paul Hodes Dem D+0 Yes Running for Judd Gregg's open Senate seat
WA-03 Brian Baird Dem D+0 Yes Apparently just bored; he's young and popular
NY-23 John McHugh Dem R+1 No Appointed Secretary of the Army
PA-12 John Murtha Dem R+1 No Murtha died; special election this Spring
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand Dem R+2 No Appointed to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat
KS-03 Dennis Moore Dem R+3 Yes No apparent reason; he wasn't even a big target
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart GOP R+5 Yes No reason given
AR-02 Vic Snyder Dem R+5 Yes Polls looked bad and he has 4 young childen
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart GOP R+5 Yes Running for his brother's open seat in FL-21
TN-08 John Tanner Dem R+6 Yes At 65, he's had enough of politics
MI-03 Vern Ehlers GOP R+6 Yes At 76 he didn't want to deal with a primary challenge
FL-12 Adam Putnam GOP R+6 Yes Running for Agriculture Commissioner
AR-01 Marion Berry Dem R+8 Yes Probably afraid he might lose
AZ-03 John Shadegg GOP R+9 Yes After 8 terms, he wants to move on
CA-19 George Radanovich GOP R+9 Yes His wife has ovarian cancer
MI-02 Peter Hoekstra GOP R+9 Yes Running for governor
SC-01 Henry Brown GOP R+10 Yes He's 74 and tired of being in the minority
LA-03 Charlie Melancon Dem R+12 Yes Running for the Senate against Vitter
TN-06 Bart Gordon Dem R+13 Yes At a young 60, he had decided he's had enough
OK-05 Mary Fallin GOP R+13 Yes Running for governor
TN-03 Zach Wamp GOP R+13 Yes Running for governor
IN-04 Steve Buyer GOP R+14 Yes His wife has an incurable autoimmune disease
KS-04 Todd Tiahrt GOP R+14 Yes Running for Sam Brownback's open Senate seat
SC-03 Greshman Barrett GOP R+17 Yes Running for governor
MO-07 Roy Blunt GOP R+17 Yes Running for the Kit Bond's open Senate seat
KS-01 Jerry Moran GOP R+23 Yes Running for Sam Brownback's open Senate seat
GA-09 Nathan Deal GOP R+28 Yes Running for governor

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