Senate Races 2010

Although the 2010 election is a long way off, it is never too early to take a quick look at it. The Republicans will be defending 19 Senate seats and the Democrats will be defending 18 seats, so for the third straight election cycle, the Democrats have the advantage, albeit a microscopic one this time. While the challengers are not yet known, half the cast of characters--the incumbents--is known.

All off-site references open in a new window. Type CTRL-W in the window to close it.

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Richard Shelby (R)	(D)	Richard Shelby was first elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 1984 by a whisker, but jumped ship and became a Republican in 1994 when the Republicans took over. While conservative on social issues, he is more moderate in economic issues, reflecting his Dixiecrat origins. He won reelection with 68% of the vote in 2004 and is likely to get that again unless the Democrats can find a top-tier opponent, which is unlikely.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Lisa Murkowski (R)	(D)	Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, the governor, who had just vacated the seat himself. There were many cries of nepotism at the time. In 2004 she won election on her own against Tony Knowles, 49% to 46%. Her only threat is red Alaska is if Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) decides that she needs some Washington experience to add to her resume prior to her potential 2012 run for President. While Palin was attacked for lack of experience during her Vice Presidential run in 2008, she does have experience in beating Murkowskis in primaries, having beaten Lisa's father, Frank in the 2006 Republican primary. If Palin runs, we will have Sen. Sarah Palin (R-AK); if she doesn't, Murkowski gets to keep her job.

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John McCain (R)	(D)	John McCain is popular in Arizona and will be reelected easily. His only threat was Janet Napolitano, and now that she is secretary of homeland security, he is safe.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Blanche Lincoln (D)	(R)	Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. In 2008, the Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). Maybe they will find some body to challenge Lincoln, but it hardly matters. She is as safe as can be.

California

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Barbara Boxer (D)	(R)	Barbara Boxer is a three-term incumbent and very popular in the state (she beat her opponent by 20 points in 2004). If Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger challenges her, he will first have to get through an almost certain primary challenge from the right, which might leave him weakened. If he wins the primary (likely) Boxer will have to work hard but she is a prodigious fundraiser and Schwarzenegger has never had an opponent anywhere near as tough as Boxer. If Schwarzenegger runs, she is still likely to win because California is a very blue state. If Schwarzenegger does not run, she is a shoo-in.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Ken Salazar swam against the Republican tide in 2004, but since he has now been appointed to the cabinet, an appointee will be running in 2010.

Connecticut

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Dodd (D)	(R)	Chris Dodd is a five-term senator from a blue state so under normal conditions it shouldn't be hard for him to become a six-term senator. However, he is also chairman of the Senate banking committee and as such is partially responsible for the various bailouts going on. These could be his Achiles heel. A potential Republican opponent could attack the bailouts and indirectly Dodd. However, the only Republican in Connecticut with enough stature to challenge him is Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT). Her problem is that she is up for reelection in 2010. Would she give up an easy reelection to the governor's mansion to risk an outside chance of upsetting Dodd?

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Gov. Ruth Minner (D-DE) has appointed Ted Kaufman, a long-time aide to Sen. Joe Biden, to fill Biden's seat. Kaufman is not expected to run in 2010 leaving the seat open. It is likely that Biden's son, Beau Biden will run for it and if he does, he will be the odds-on favorite in this heavily Democratic state.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Sen. Mel Martinez is retiring at the end of his term, which will set off a free for all for this competitive Senate seat. Republicans are hoping that former governor Jeb Bush runs. If he does, he would probably start out as the favorite, despite the toxic name. For Democrats, the race is wide open although Florida's chief financial officer Alex Sink, might have a bit of an edge if she wants to run. Florida primaries are in September, so if either party has a bitter primary, there is little time to recover from a tough and expensive fight.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Johnny Isakson (R)	(D)	Although Johnny Isakson is only a one-term senator and was elected in the year George Bush was reelected, he is a very conservative senator, which matches the Georgia electorate well, so it is unlikely he can be unseated in 2010. The Democrats are unlikely to even come up with a first-tier challenger.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Daniel Inouye (D)	(R)	Daniel Inouye willbe 86 in 2010 but has said he plans to run for a ninth term. He will probably win easily unless Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) decides to run, in which case it could be a contest. Still, Republicans are scarce on the ground in Hawaii and in an Inouye-Lingle matchup, Inouye would be the favorite.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Crapo (R)	(D)	Mike Crapo is a conservative senator who is a good match for his state. The Democrats didn't even bother running a candidate against him in 2004. He will cruise to reelection in 2010--if he runs. He was treated for prostate cancer in 2000 and again in 2005 and might decide to retire, but even if he does retire, the Republicans are virtually certain to retain the seat.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chuck Grassley (R)	(D)	Chuck Grassley is a fixture in the Senate. Since 1986 he has always gotten at least 66% of the vote. He is unbeatable.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Hard to say too much about this seat until Obama's successor is named. However, Illinois is a blue state so it is always an uphill climb for any Republican.

Indiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Evan Bayh (D)	(R)	Although Barack Obama carried Indiana, it is nevertheless a fairly red state. However, this color does not appear to apply to the Bayh family. Evan has been elected to statewide office five times (once as secretary of state, twice as governor, and twice as senaor) and his father was a three-term senator. If Gov. Mitch Daniels runs for the Senate, Bayh would at least have to campaign, but with $11 million in the bank before even starting, that wouldn't be hard to do. Since the $11 million is no secret, Daniels will think long and hard about where he is going to get that kind of money from before entering the race.

Kansas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is retiring so Kansas has an open seat in 2010. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1936. However, if Gov. Kathleen Sebelius decides to run for the seat, she might actually have a chance. If she declines to run, whichever Republican wins the likely primary will be elected. If senator Brownback runs for governor and governor Sebelius runs for the Senate, the voters may elect both, feeling it is an even trade.

Kentucky

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Bunning (R)	(D)	Jim Bunning is the only senator who is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame having been a successful pitcher for the Tigers, Phillies, Pirates, and Dodgers before being elected to Congress. However he will be 79 in 2010 and has some health issues. Kentucky is not as Republican as some Southern states and if the Democrats come up with a solid challenger, they might have a chance, especially if Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo runs again. Mongiardo ran against Bunning in 2004 and lost by 2 points despite being poorly known an underfunded. He will be much stronger this time around. State auditor Crit Luallen might also run and state attorney general Jack Conway is also thinking about it.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
David Vitter (R)	(D)	David Vitter is the only Republican ever elected to the Senate from Louisiana since direct election of senators began. He will certainly be under a cloud in 2010 because he was a customer of the late D.C. madam, Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Count on his Democratic opponent to bring this up. Perhaps once. Perhaps twice. Perhaps 1000 times. Bet on the latter. Who might the Democrats run? Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu might be a good choice--were it not for the fact that his sister, Mary, is the other senator. Secretary of state Jay Dardenne might be the most realistic choice.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Barbara Mikulski (D)	(R)	Barbara Mikulski is a four-term senator from a very blue state. In 2004 she got more votes than any candidate in the history of Maryland. She can stay in the Senate until she dies if she wants to.

Missouri

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kit Bond (R)	(D)	Kit Bond has been elected to the Senate four times, none of them by landslide margins. If Missouri secretary of state, Robin Carnahan (D), member of a Missouri dynasty, challenges him, he will have a real fight on his hands.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Reid (D)	(R)	Although the gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone, defeating the powerful majority leader will be tough. For one thing, Nevada swung strongly into the Democratic column in 2008. For another, his position gives him the ability to bring home the bacon. Also working in his favor is that the Republicans have a very thin bench in Nevada. The governor has been involved in one scandal after another and the lieutenant governor is under indictment. The only serious Republican left is former representative Jon Porter, but if he couldn't even win his own district, it could be tough statewide.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Judd Gregg (R)	(D)	Judd Gregg is probably the most endangered senator up in 2010. Traditionally New Hampshire was a Republican stronghold in New England. Since 2006, however, the state has become bright blue with a vengeance. Both (Republican) congressmen were unseated in 2006 and Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) went down to defeat by former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in 2008. If Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) decides to run for the Senate instead of for governor in 2010, Gregg is in big trouble. If Lynch declines, either or both of the state's representatives may run.

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chuck Schumer (D)	(R)	The Republicans will probably put up a symbolic candidate against Chuck Schumer, but the only value in doing so is for the candidate to get some exposure to run for some other office later. Remember, this is a guy who ran the DSCC for two cycles and knocked off 13-14 sitting Republicans. Schumer is invincible.

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	New York is a blue state, so whoever replaces Hillary Clinton has the edge, but until the appointee is known, it is a bit hard to evaluate his or her chances.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Richard Burr (R)	(D)	Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan at the same time as Beverly Perdue (D) was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state's electors. Initial PPP (D) polling of Burr against state attorney general Roy Cooper (D) shows Cooper winning by 5 points. To put this in perspective, at a similar point in the previous cycle, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) was crushing state senator Kay Hagan (D) by 16 points. Nevertheless, Hagan won.

North Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Byron Dorgan (D)	(R)	While it may seem odd for North Dakota, a red state, to keep electing Democrats to the Senate, both senators are Democrats. If Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) decides to run, Dorgan may have to work hard to keep his job. Otherwise, Dorgan gets a fourth term. But there is a decent chance Hoeven won't risk his shoo-in job as governor for a race he could lose.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
George Voinovich (R)	(D)	George Voinovich is a two-term senator from a swing state but a recent poll shows that his approval rating is about 35% so he may be vulnerable if the Democrats can come up with a solid candidate. One possibility is Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D). Also, the state has been trending Democratic. The Democrats picked up the governorship and a Senate seat in 2006 and have gained four House seats since 2006. Obama carried the state as well. If the economy is still in poor shape in the rust belt in 2010, it will be hard for an incumbent to escape some of the blame.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Coburn (R)	(D)	Tom Coburn is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He's safe unless Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) decides to challenge him, in which case he might have to work hard to keep his job. However, Henry has said he won't run. But people have been known to change their minds. Without Henry as their nominee, the Democrats have no chance at all here.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ron Wyden (D)	(R)	Ron Wyden is a popular Democratic senator from an increasingly blue state. It is doubtful that he can be unseated. He probably won't even be tested very hard.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Arlen Specter (R)	(D)	Arlen Specter will be the Democrats #2 target (after Judd Gregg). He will be 80 in 2010, has incurable cancer, and is from a blue state. Furthermore, he may face a primary challenge from the right from Pat Toomey, who challenged him in 2004. But beating Toomey won't be enough. If Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) can be talked into challenging him, Specter is in huge trouble, but he will also have a big fight on his hands against any of the numerous Democratic representatives from Pennsylvania. Hardball host Chris Matthews may also be interested in the job.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim DeMint (R)	(D)	Jim DeMint is the most conservative member of the Senate and fits his state well. He is completely safe. The Democrats don't have any plausible candidates at all. He might even end up running unopposed.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Thune (R)	(D)	John Thune upset the Democratic minority leader, Tom Daschle, in 2004, violating a gentlemen's agreement that both parties had not to attack each other's leader. Consequently, Democrats are really going to gun for him this time to get revenge. One potential candidate is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the state's sole representative. She has a proven track record of winning statewide by large margins and would be a serious challenger if she decides to go for a promotion to the Senate. But she may decide she would rather be governor, like her grandfather, or wait until Sen. Tim Johnson (D) retires. She's only 38, just got married, and is expecting her first child. Chances are she will decline to run in 2010 knowing she he plenty of time later on.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Robert Bennett (R)	(D)	Robert Bennett is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He won by 40 points last time. He'll be a U.S. senator until the cows come home.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Pat Leahy (D)	(R)	Pat Leahy was first elected to the Senate when he was 34. He can stay there until he gets bored with the job and there is no evidence that boredom is about to set in. He won by 46 points in 2004 and will do as well in 2010. The only Republican who has even an outside chance of taking him down is Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT), but Douglas is up for reelection in 2010. Like Jodi Rell in Connecticut, why would have give up an almost sure thing to be reelected as governor for a real longshot at a Senate seat?

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Patty Murray (D)	(R)	Patty Murray calls herself "a mom in tennis shoes" but she shouldn't be underestimated: she is the #4 Democrat in the Senate Democratic caucus. While the Republicans will surely mount a serious challenge to her, she would be the clear favorite for a fourth term even if the Republicans had a deep bench here, which they don't.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Russ Feingold (D)	(R)	What's a twice-divorced Jew who supports gay marriage, universal health insurance, and gun control and who opposes the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act doing in Wisconsin? Answer: representing the state in the Senate since 1993. Feingold is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, but Wisconsin voters seem to like that. He should cruise to an easy reelection. It is doubtful that the Republicans will even be able to recruit a serious candidate against him.