The big presidential news today is not about Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or John McCain.
It is about former Georgia representative
Bob Barr, who was
nominated
yesterday by the Libertarian Party
to be its candidate for President. For people who think third parties don't amount to a hill of beans, please
recall that in 2000, George Bush beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, with 92,000 Floridians voting for
Ralph Nader. If 1% of those people had voted for Gore instead of Nader, he would have become President.
The photo at the right is Barr.
Barr's impact is yet to be determined, of course,
He is strongly conservative in the Barry Goldwater mold rather than in the Bush-Cheney mold.
But he is not your standard libertarian. He opposes abortion, whereas most libertarians say it is none
of the government's business if you want an abortion. He also opposes same-sex marriage, but opposes a
constitutional amendment forbidding it on the grounds this is something for the states to decide. He
also opposes the federal income tax and wants to abolish the IRS.
In addition, he is a strong opponent of the war in Iraq. It isn't so much that he feels each state should
fight its own wars as his general opposition to foreign involvements. In short, for Republicans who dislike
McCain for any reason (e.g., the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill) and who would never vote for a Democrat, Barr provides a satisfactory ideological
outlet. He might well drain enough votes from McCain to flip a few states. One state that has been mentioned
in this context is Georgia, where he is well known. The combination of Barr bleeding votes from McCain and
a massive turnout of black voters for Obama (if he is the nominee), might put the state in play. No doubt
McCain will try to swat Barr down as hard and as fast as he can, but since their main point of difference is
Iraq, McCain is going to find himself under attack on Iraq from the right, something he probably wasn't expecting.
Saying that Obama is buddy-buddy with Nancy Pelosi is one thing; saying that Barr is, too, is something
pretty hard to swallow.
Nader is in the mix, too, as usual, but Barr will probably get a lot more attention, if for no other reason than
the fact that he is the new kid on the block.
The next primary is in Puerto Rico on June 1. Puerto Ricans are American citizens but they cannot
vote in federal elections. However, the Democratic party long ago decided to give Puerto Ricans a
say in choosing its nominee. Since the Puerto Rican primary comes so late in the season, in most years there
is only one candidate left and all the votes go to that candidate. This situation has led to a rumor
that Puerto Rico's primary is winner take all, but it is proportional, as all the others are and as
prescribed by DNC rules. Here is the Puerto Rico
delegate selection plan.
Thus 55 delegate slots will be allocated Sunday. The actual delegates will be chosen at the
territorial convention on June 21.
The delegates will be chosen by senatorial district, the same as Texas. Here is a map
of Puerto Rico (without the districts, unfortunately).
Puerto Rico has eight senatorial districts.
The number of delegates per SD is determined by the population of the district.
The last two columns of the table below assume Hillary Clinton will get 60% of the
vote in each district. This is just as guess, but the only published poll so far
shows her getting 55% to Barack Obama's 40%. But she might well surpass 55% since she
has been popular with Latinos all year and many Puerto Ricans have relatives in New York
City, where she is popular.
SD
Males
Females
Total
Location
Clinton
Obama
1
3
3
6
San Juan
4
2
2
2
3
5
Bayamon
3
2
3
2
2
4
Arecibo
2
2
4
2
2
4
Mayaguez
2
2
5
2
2
4
Ponce
2
2
6
2
2
4
Guayama
2
2
7
2
2
4
Humacao
2
2
8
3
2
5
Carolina
3
2
Total
18
18
36
20
16
Thus with 60% of the vote, Clinton nets 4 district-level delegates.
She also gets seven at-large delegates and four PLEOs for a total of 31 pledged
delegates. With 40% of the vote, Obama gets five at large delegates and three PLEOs,
for a total of 24 delegates. Thus a strong showing in Puerto Rico will net Clinton
seven delegates. She is likely to lose three or four in Montana and South Dakota, though.
No primary polls today, just a general election poll for Montana.
State
Clinton
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Montana
40%
51%
May 19
May 21
Mason-DIxon
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Montana
39%
47%
May 19
May 21
Mason-Dixon
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
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