May 05

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News from the Votemaster

The link "Poll graphs" on the menu below the map is now working. Give it a try for both the Presidential and Senate races. The "Senate maps and races" link to the right of the map is also live from now on. However, it is only tracking the races where both candidates are already known (i.e., not Senate primaries).

If you missed the big news about LA-06, click on "Previous report" to the right of the map.

Last week we had a posting about the details of the North Carolina primary. Now it's Indiana's turn. Indiana chooses its elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention by congressional district, of which it has nine. Here is the map of the Indiana congressional districts.

Indiana will send 85 delegates to the Democratic National Convention as follows:

The first step in the selection of delegates is the primary tomorrow, where the number of district-level delegates for each candidate will be chosen. The actual delegates will not be chosen tomorrow, but at the state convention next month. Here is the breakdown per congressional district along with CQ Politics' prediction of how the delegate allocation will go.

If this scenario holds, Hillary Clinton will get 24 district-level delegates and Barack Obama will get 23. As usual, the problem in getting more is that so many districts have an even number of delegates, so you need a landslide to get more than half the delegates. The PLEOs and at-large delegates are divvied up according to the statewide totals. Suppose Clinton gets 55% of the vote. Then she gets 5 PLEOs and Obama gets 4 and she gets 9 at-large delegates to his 7. Thus a substantial win for Clinton nets her four delegates, exclusive of the superdelegates. Most of the Indiana superdelegates are biding their time, waiting to see what the Indiana voters want.

Here are three new polls about tomorrow's primaries. Zogby has it closer in Indiana than everyone else. Suspicious.

Here are all the Indiana and North Carolina polls for the past two weeks.

Tom Friedman has a column that is well worth reading. It is how we need a President who is willing to get on TV at 8 P.M. and tell the American people the truth--that America is headed in the wrong direction--and that allies and competitors are catching up fast. You only have to compare JFK airport with Singapore's, Penn Station with Berlin's central station, and observe the investments countries in Asia are making in the future to begin to the see the problem. Friedman's point is that we need a President brave enough to tell the American people that driving wasteful SUVs that run on foreign oil supplied by terrorist-friendly autocrats and paid for with money borrowed from China is a receipe for disaster down the road.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Delegates

Needed to win: 2025

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com