SurveyUSA polled 600 people in each of the 50 states to see who would win:
a Clinton-McCain matchup
a Obama-McCain Matchup
Obama wins a large number of red states, including North Dakota, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.
Clinton loses every state west of the Mississippi river except California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Arkansas.
But she makes up for it by winning the biggie: Florida, which Obama loses.
With Clinton in the race, every multihomed New York snowbird is going to go to Florida Nov. 1 and vote there.
Both of them beat McCain; he by 22 electoral votes
and she by 14 electoral votes. As an aside, this is where robopolling (which SurveyUSA and Rasmussen use) shows its
strength. Interviewing 30,000 people using human callers would be quite a project. Telling the computer to make 150,000
random calls (or whatever it takes to get 30,000 people to answer the questions) is quite a bit easier.
Here are the SurveyUSA maps.
The candidates are breaking records
fundraising.
Clinton raised $35 million in February, which is incredible. Nevertheless, Obama beat that, raising $55 million February.
Together, they can buy all the TV time in the state of Wyoming until Saturday's caucuses. If you live in Wyoming, you
can expect 24 hours of continuous political commercials today. Maybe turn off the TV and go outside to enjoy your beautiful state.
Then go caucus Saturday.
Daily Kos has a
detailed posting
about the many flavors of superdelegates, from distinguished party leaders to add ons and the consequences
thereof.
Probably the biggest issue for the Democrats is what to do about Michigan and Florida. There is talk about
Michigan organizing a caucus sanctioned by the party. Hillary Clinton will strongly oppose this because
Obama has won nearly all the caucuses so far. Ultimately, it is not her call though. The Michigan
Democratic party has to organize it and pay for it and the DNC has to approve it. In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist (R)
has suggested a new primary--paid for the by the DNC--knowing full well that a primary could cost $25 million,
money the DNC does not have. This is clearly a nonstarter, but the solution for Florida is far from clear.
There is one new poll today, in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton is currently way ahead there.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all
sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote
at the convention.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
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