Jun. 21

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Presidential polls today:	CA IA NH NV
Dem pickups (vs. 2004):	CO IA MO NM OH VA	GOP pickups (vs. 2004):	(None)

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News from the Votemaster

The Obama campaign is belatedly realizing that it needs to have more women in the top positions of the campaign organization and is rapidly correcting the problem. In addition to the recent hire of Patti Solis Doyle this week, it also announced hiring Stephanie Cutter, John Kerry's 2004 communications director as a senior advisor and Jen O'Malley Dillon as battleground states director. More hires of women in key positions are expected.

Some of the committees have reported their May fundraising efforts. The RNC has $54 million cash on hand to the DNC's paltry $4 million. The DNC has actually raised quite a bit of money, but it is spending it on Howard Dean's 50-state strategy. The RNC is saving its pennies to help John McCain in the Fall.The DSCC has $39 million on hand to the NRSC's $22 million. The NRCC has $7 million in the bank. The DCCC hasn't reported yet.

In case you missed the announcement in February, Ralph Nader is back again continuing his quest for the Harold Stassen Award. This is Nader's fourth run, so he needs six more after this one to break Stassen's record. When people confront him blaming him for George W. Bush's victory in 2000 and thus the Iraq war he replies that the people who should really get the blame are George H.W. Bush and Barbara Bush for creating him in the first place.

Here are today's presidential polls. Iowa and Nevada are close, as expected, with McCain leading slightly in Nevada and Obama leading slightly in Iowa. Both will be battleground states this year.

The New Hampshire Senate race looks like it is going to be a landslide for three-time former governor Jeanne Shaheen.

Perhaps the most indicative poll of all today is in IN-09, an R+7 district in which Rep. Baron Hill (D) and Mike Sodrel (R) keep taking turns at being a congressman. Hill now is leading 51% to 40%. We saw earlier this year that Democrats swept three open seats in Republican territory (IL-14, LA-06, and MS-01). Now we are starting to see what might happen to incumbent Democrats in Republican territory--they might be reelected in landslides. While it is still too early for Hill to break out the champagne, when a Democrat has an 11-point lead in a heavily Republican district it does not bode well for the GOP in contested House races.

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