The economy is
heading south.
The Dow lost 394 points, unemployment took the biggest jump upwards in two decades, oil hit $139 a barrel, gas
is averaging $3.99 a gallon nationally, inflation is around the corner, and the European Central Bank is going to
raise (not lower) interest rates. All this bodes ill for the Republicans. Most hard-pressed families intutitively
understand that when times are tough the Democrats' prescription for more government spending to create jobs is better
for them than tax cuts, especially tax cuts tilted heavily towards the rich. Barack Obama has had trouble connecting
with blue-collar workers. A sick economy gives him the opening he needs to address their concerns. Earlier this
year he proposed a big government program to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure (and create jobs in every
congressional district, which is easy to sell to Congress). It probably won't be long before Obama
trots it out again.
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) has
introduced
a bill to abolish the electoral college and choose the President by popular vote. As a senator from Florida he
understands the important of one-person-one-vote better than most. His bill would also require voting machines to
have a paper trail and would encourage early voting and mail-in voting. To abolish the electoral college, the bill
would have to pass the House and Senate with 2/3 majorities in each and then be ratified by 38 states. It will be an uphill
climb since this amendment would take power away from thinly populated states like Idaho, Wyoming, and North Dakota
and give more to thickly popuplated states like Florida. The senators and legislatures from the thinly
populated states understand this full well.
However, there is another move afoot to de facto abolish the electoral college without amending the constitution.
Each state is free to cast its electoral votes as dictated by state law. Most states use winner-take-all, but
Maine and Nebraska cast them by congressional district, with two extra votes for the statewide winner. Nothing
prevents a state from using a different formula. There is a movement for a
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
in which states would agree to cast all their electoral votes for the national popular vote winner, irrespective
of how the state voted. If states with 270 electoral votes agree to this compact, the electoral college will be
effectively abolished. Probably this Website, too. Oh well. So far Maryland, New Jersey, Illinois, and Hawaii have
agreed to it and other states are considering it. On the whole, Democrats like the idea and Republicans don't
because it would greatly reduce the power of the thinly populated Western states, which are largely Republican.
If it passed, Democrats would focus on massive get-out-the-vote drives in New York, California, and Illinois.
Republicans would counter in Texas and Georgia, but the big states tend to be more blue than red. Unlike Nelson's
bill, which is unlikely to pass, if the Democrats take control of many state legislatures and governor's mansions
in November, more states might sign up next year.
Just when you thought there couldn't be any more twists and turns in the battle for NY-13,
we have another one. As you probably recall, Vito Fossella, the incumbent ran a red light while
drunk. When the arresting officer asked where he was going, he said to visit his family. Turns out
he has one in Virginia and one on Staten Island. He decided running for reelection wouldn't be a good
idea but the Republicans were not able to come up with a top-tier candidate or even a second-tier
candidate, so they settled on a rich businessman, Francis Powers, Sr. (Note the Sr. part; it's important).
The idea was that Powers, Sr, could fund his own campaign. Fine. Until his estranged son, Francis Powers, Jr.
decided the best way to make sure his father was defeated was to run against him on the Libertarian ticket.
Check it out on the
Daily Irrelevant.
Hillary Clinton is going to make a major speech today conceding the nomination. She sent a letter to her
supporters telling them what to expect. Here is
the text.
No new polls for President or Senate today, but a poll in OH-02 shows Victorial Wulsin (D) leading
Jean Schmidt (R) 30% to 24% with a lot of undecideds. This will be a closely watched race.
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
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