Rudy Giuliani dropped out yesterday after dismal showings in primary
after primary. He endorsed John McCain. He wasn't a factor at all and
his disappearance will hardly be noticed. In future elections, consultants
will point to his campaign as the consequence of ignoring Iowa and New Hampshire.
It is unlikely any candidate will try that strategy again soon.
Far more surprising, John Edwards dropped out yesterday, too. No one expected
this. It was unlikely that he could have won the nomination, but since all
Democratic primaries are proportional, he could have won maybe 500 delegates.
If Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton each came into the convention a bit short
of 50%, Edwards could have extracted major concessions from one of them
in return for his support. Why he didn't do this is a complete mystery.
He couldn't have been king but he could have been kingmaker.
Speaking of dropping out, another Republican congressman has thrown in
the towel, and this one is very important. Rep. Tom Davis (VA-11) is not running
for reelection in 2008. He hails from northern Virginia, which is rapidly
trending Democratic. This seat could easily flip in 2008 (especially if Virginia's
Sen. Jim Webb is the Democratic Veep nominee). It will certainly be the
site of a fierce battle. There are now so many retirees, that this site will
track them on a special page from now on. Click on "Data galore" above and
then look under the heading "The House." That page will be updated as
congresspersons contine to drop.
Here is an attempt to outline what is going to happen next Tuesday.
It is not perfect, but it gives you an idea. The reason it is not
perfect is that the rules differ from state to state in subtle ways.
In 2007, each state party submitted a Delegate Selection Plan to the
DNC or RNC, which then approved it or sent it back for modifications.
State parties could proposed pretty much anything they wanted to and if
the national committee bought it, they were in. For example, here are
the rules for
California Democrats.
The simplest plan imaginable was a statewide primary with the winner
getting all the delegates. But even that is not so simple. Remember,
delegates are actual human beings. Come August, you can probably get
a list of them if you try hard enough. Suppose John McCain won all of
Arizona's 53 delegates. Somebody has to pick 53 McCain supporters to
go to the convention. The Arizona Republican party could have said
"We'll let McCain pick 53 of his best friends" but that might mean
a senator, four congressmen, and various county chairmen might not
get to go to the convention. Ditto for all the other states. So all
the plans have some delegates chosen at the primary or caucus, but
often a second event later in the year to select more delegates.
Furthermore, all states some some delegates chosen by county or
congressional district and others chosen statewide. In addition
all states reserve some seats for governors, senators, representatives,
DNC/RNC members, and often county chairs. The rules differ wildly
how these are chosen and whether they are pledged to a candidate or
free spirits. If you notice the list below, in the Republican table,
states that tend to vote Republican get bonus delegates as a reward.
The Democrats don't do this.
To make matters more fun, some states have proportional representation
and others have WTA (Winner Take All), but these rules may or may not
apply to the at-large delegates, PLEOS, or unpledged delegates (usually not).
Furthermore, many states have multiple rounds, in which the people elected
or the slots reserved Feb. 5 relate to a later state caucus or convention,
where the actual DNC/RNC delegates are chosen. Further complicating the
matter is that some states have lower and upper bounds. If you get fewer
than X% of the vote you don't get any delegates and if you get more than
Y% (usually 67%) you get all the delegates. Finally, in some states the
election Feb. 5 is really a "beauty contest:" no actual delegates are
selected and no seats are reserved. A subsequent caucus or convention
can honor or not honor the vote, as it wishes. If you REALLY want to learn
the ins and outs for your state party, try to get a copy of its
delegate selection plan, where the rules are spelled out.
Another issue that differs from state to state is who can vote.
In a closed primary, only party members can vote. In an open one, anyone
can vote. In a semiopen one, there are special rules, such as independents
(but not members of the other party) can vote but only if they specifically
request a ballot. There are also other state-by-state restrictions. The whole
system is a a crazy-quilt pattern because it is done bottom up, state by
state, with a peculiar mixture of party rules and state law.
Here is a
link
to some explanation of this material.
CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count:
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