Jan. 22 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Barack Obama 242   John McCain 289   Ties 7
Senate: Dem ?   GOP ?  
House: Dem ?   GOP ?  

Senate map with polls
Downloadable polling data
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News: Updated Jan. 22

strong Dem Strong Dem (110)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (95)
tied Exactly tied (7)
barely GOP Barely GOP (5)
weak GOP Weak GOP (72)
strong GOP Strong GOP (212)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): IA  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): MN  

News from the Votemaster

Yesterday we looked at a potential Clinton-McCain race. Today we have Obama-McCain (using head-to-head matchup polls from SurveyUSA). What would an Obama-McCain election look like? See the map above. But it is VERY early and most voters are barely paying attention now. Besides, most of the states were not polled at all. It's more for fun that anything serious at this point. The map cannot be directly compared to yesterdays matchup of Clinton vs. McCain because SurveyUSA didn't poll the same states on that matchup (they poll the races their customers pay them to poll and for some reason, Obama-McCain didn't seem so important to Florida newspapers, so it wasn't polled. Some of these head-to-heads were done in Dec. and that might have seemed like an unlikely combination then.)

With three serious Democrats (Clinton, Obama, Edwards) and five or six serious Republicans (McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, Huckabee, and maybe Paul) there are 18 maps ==> too many. Maybe when the field is narrowed more and there are more polls, I'll try some of the others.

For now, the Republicans are focusing on Florida and the Democrats on South Carolina. However, for some reason today's polls are Florida and New York, as follows.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Florida Rasmussen Jan. 20 47% 29% 12% 19% 20% 25% 12% 13%
Florida SurveyUSA Jan. 20 56% 23% 12% 20% 25% 19% 7% 14%
New York Marist Coll. Jan. 17 48% 32% 9% 19% 34% 19% 6% 15%
New York Rasmussen Jan. 17 51% 30% 10% 20% 26% 13% 12% 11%
New York Siena Coll. Jan. 17 48% 23% 10% 24% 36% 10% 6% 7%
New York Zogby Jan. 21 47% 26% 9% 21% 24% 14% 7% 7%

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and when different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:


Clinton 210 Obama 123 Edwards 52 Kucinich 1     Needed: 2025
Romney 72 McCain 38 Huckabee 29 Thompson 8 Paul 6 Giuliani 1 Needed: 1191

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com