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News: Updated Jan. 18


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News from the Votemaster

In case you haven't noticed, the map above is for the Democratic Party primaries and caucuses. For the Republican Party primaries and caucuses, click the link near the top on the right.

Tomorrow are the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary. Here are the latest polling results for the two states. In Nevada, Clinton and Romney are slightly ahead, but due to the low-turnout at caucuses, the results might be different. There was a court case about whether cacuses could be held at hotels in the strip and the result was they could be (which helps Obama, since key unions have endorsed him). The last two polls in Nevada show Giuliani sinking rapidly, with his suport going to Romney. If Romney wins Nevada, it repairs some of the damage he suffered losing Iowa and New Hampshire. If he manages to win both Nevada and South Carolina, then he gets to be front-runner-for-a-week.

In South Carolina, Obama is ahead of Clinton, but that could change before the actual Democratic primary on Jan. 26. The Republican side is tomorrow and too close to call. However, if Fred Thompson comes in 4th, it's curtains for Fred. He'll probably drop out immediately, saying some variant of "I didn't really want the job anyway." It's not sour grapes. He never acted like somebody who wanted the job. Romney has poured tens of millions of dollars of his own money into the race. McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani have all been campaigning like crazy, albeit in different ways. Fred's been invisible. Lesson: Don't run for President unless you really want to be President.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Nevada Zogby Jan. 17 42% 37% 12%          
Nevada Mason-Dixon Jan. 16 41% 32% 14% 6% 19% 34% 8% 13%
Nevada ARG Jan. 14 35% 32% 25% 11% 21% 28% 13% 8%
Nevada Research 2000 Jan. 13 30% 32% 27% 18% 22% 15% 11% 16%


State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
South Carolina Rasmussen Jan. 16 31% 44% 15% 3% 24% 18% 16% 24%
South Carolina Mason-Dixon Jan. 16 31% 40% 13% 5% 27% 15% 13% 25%
South Carolina ARG Jan. 16 38% 44% 9% 4% 33% 20% 13% 23%
South Carolina SurveyUSA Jan. 16 3% 29% 17% 17% 26%
South Carolina Zogby Jan. 15 2% 29% 15% 13% 22%
South Carolina Clemson U. Jan. 15 3% 29% 13% 10% 22%
South Carolina Insider Advantage Jan. 15 31% 41% 13%          
South Carolina Rasmussen Jan. 13 33% 38% 17% 5% 28% 17% 16% 19%
South Carolina Opinion Dynamics Jan. 9 5% 25% 17% 9% 18%
South Carolina Rasmussen Jan. 9 30% 42% 15% 6% 27% 16% 12% 24%
South Carolina Insider Advantage Jan. 7 33% 40% 15% 8% 21% 14% 5% 33%
South Carolina Rasmussen Jan. 6 30% 42% 14% 10% 21% 15% 11% 28%
South Carolina SurveyUSA Jan. 6 30% 50% 16% 9% 17% 19% 11% 36%

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.



-- The Votemaster
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