Jan. 12

Wyoming Primary on March 8 No polls have been published Wisconsin Primary on February 19 Most recent polls: Dec 05: Clinton 39% Obama 26% Edwards 15% Nov 08: Clinton 43% Obama 25% Edwards 15% Apr 17: Clinton 33% Obama 30% Edwards 18% West Virginia Primary on May 13 Most recent polls: Apr 02: Clinton 37% Obama 22% Edwards 19% Washington Caucus on February 9 Most recent polls: Oct 28: Clinton 44% Obama 29% Edwards 16% Virginia Primary on February 12 Most recent polls: Oct 08: Clinton 49% Obama 25% Edwards 11% Vermont Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Oct 19: Clinton 47% Obama 15% Edwards 10% Vermont Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Oct 19: Clinton 47% Obama 15% Edwards 10% Utah Primary on February 5 No polls have been published Utah Primary on February 5 No polls have been published Texas Hybrid on March 4 Most recent polls: May 07: Clinton 33% Obama 21% Edwards 8% Mar 19: Clinton 34% Obama 32% Edwards 11% Tennessee Primary on February 5 No polls have been published South Dakota Primary on June 3 No polls have been published South Carolina Primary on January 26 Most recent polls: Jan 09: Clinton 30% Obama 42% Edwards 15% Jan 07: Clinton 33% Obama 40% Edwards 15% Jan 06: Clinton 30% Obama 42% Edwards 14% Rhode Island Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Sep 09: Clinton 35% Obama 16% Edwards 7% Rhode Island Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Sep 09: Clinton 35% Obama 16% Edwards 7% Pennsylvania Primary on April 22 Most recent polls: Dec 03: Clinton 43% Obama 15% Edwards 9% Nov 05: Clinton 46% Obama 15% Edwards 11% Oct 08: Clinton 41% Obama 14% Edwards 11% Oregon Primary on May 20 Most recent polls: Aug 15: Clinton 26% Obama 18% Edwards 17% Mar 13: Clinton 31% Obama 21% Edwards 8% Oklahoma Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 19: Clinton 34% Obama 15% Edwards 25% Apr 30: Clinton 29% Obama 13% Edwards 29% Ohio Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Dec 03: Clinton 45% Obama 19% Edwards 13% Nov 11: Clinton 42% Obama 17% Edwards 14% Oct 08: Clinton 47% Obama 19% Edwards 11% North Dakota Caucus on February 5 No polls have been published North Carolina Primary on May 6 Most recent polls: Jan 09: Clinton 31% Obama 29% Edwards 27% Dec 03: Clinton 31% Obama 24% Edwards 26% Sep 27: Clinton 37% Obama 18% Edwards 18% New York Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 10: Clinton 55% Obama 17% Edwards 7% Dec 06: Clinton 50% Obama 19% Edwards 10% Nov 03: Clinton 45% Obama 19% Edwards 7% New Mexico Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: Sep 06: Clinton 17% Obama 8% Edwards 8% New Jersey Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 09: Clinton 51% Obama 17% Edwards 7% Oct 23: Clinton 52% Obama 21% Edwards 8% Oct 15: Clinton 46% Obama 20% Edwards 9% New Jersey Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 09: Clinton 51% Obama 17% Edwards 7% Oct 23: Clinton 52% Obama 21% Edwards 8% Oct 15: Clinton 46% Obama 20% Edwards 9% New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%) New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%) Nevada Caucus on January 19 Most recent polls: Dec 06: Clinton 45% Obama 18% Edwards 14% Dec 05: Clinton 34% Obama 26% Edwards 9% Nov 19: Clinton 45% Obama 20% Edwards 12% Nebraska Caucus on February 9 No polls have been published Montana Primary on June 3 Most recent polls: Dec 19: Clinton 29% Obama 17% Edwards 19% Missouri Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Nov 15: Clinton 36% Obama 21% Edwards 20% Aug 06: Clinton 40% Obama 15% Edwards 22% Mississippi Primary on March 11 No polls have been published Minnesota Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: Sep 23: Clinton 47% Obama 22% Edwards 16% Michigan Primary on January 15 Most recent polls: Nov 13: Clinton 49% Obama 18% Edwards 15% Sep 04: Clinton 43% Obama 21% Edwards 14% Aug 31: Clinton 40% Obama 21% Edwards 16% Massachusetts Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Apr 15: Clinton 32% Obama 18% Edwards 19% Massachusetts Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Apr 15: Clinton 32% Obama 18% Edwards 19% Maryland Primary on February 12 Most recent polls: Oct 22: Clinton 48% Obama 29% Edwards 8% Aug 26: Clinton 32% Obama 19% Edwards 10% Maryland Primary on February 12 Most recent polls: Oct 22: Clinton 48% Obama 29% Edwards 8% Aug 26: Clinton 32% Obama 19% Edwards 10% Maine Caucus on February 10 Most recent polls: Oct 30: Clinton 46% Obama 10% Edwards 5% Apr 27: Clinton 39% Obama 22% Edwards 16% Louisiana Primary on February 9 No polls have been published Kentucky Primary on May 20 No polls have been published Kansas Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: May 23: Clinton 27% Obama 22% Edwards 21% Iowa Caucus on January 3 1. Barack Obama (38%) 2. John Edwards (30%) 3. Hillary Clinton (29%) Indiana Primary on May 6 No polls have been published Illinois Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 13: Clinton 25% Obama 50% Edwards 7% Jul 09: Clinton 33% Obama 37% Edwards 10% Idaho Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: Jul 13: Clinton 31% Obama 33% Edwards 15% Hawaii Caucus on February 19 No polls have been published Georgia Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Aug 06: Clinton 35% Obama 25% Edwards 17% Florida Primary on January 29 Most recent polls: Jan 07: Clinton 40% Obama 32% Edwards 9% Jan 07: Clinton 40% Obama 28% Edwards 19% Dec 18: Clinton 43% Obama 21% Edwards 19% Delaware Primary on February 5 No polls have been published Delaware Primary on February 5 No polls have been published D.C. Primary on February 12 No polls have been published D.C. Primary on February 12 No polls have been published Connecticut Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Nov 05: Clinton 45% Obama 19% Edwards 7% Oct 15: Clinton 43% Obama 16% Edwards 8% May 07: Clinton 28% Obama 20% Edwards 8% Connecticut Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Nov 05: Clinton 45% Obama 19% Edwards 7% Oct 15: Clinton 43% Obama 16% Edwards 8% May 07: Clinton 28% Obama 20% Edwards 8% Colorado Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: Sep 18: Clinton 36% Obama 20% Edwards 19% Jul 18: Clinton 39% Obama 22% Edwards 10% Apr 02: Clinton 34% Obama 23% Edwards 17% California Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 17: Clinton 36% Obama 22% Edwards 13% Dec 16: Clinton 49% Obama 30% Edwards 14% Dec 04: Clinton 44% Obama 20% Edwards 12% Arkansas Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Mar 19: Clinton 49% Obama 16% Edwards 12% Arizona Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Nov 15: Clinton 44% Obama 14% Edwards B20% Oct 09: Clinton 41% Obama 14% Edwards 16% Jul 26: Clinton 39% Obama 25% Edwards 8% Alaska Caucus on February 5 No polls have been published Alabama Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Oct 25: Clinton 40% Obama 21% Edwards 14% Aug 02: Clinton 38% Obama 19% Edwards 17% Jul 19: Clinton 33% Obama 29% Edwards 9%

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News from the Votemaster

It is quiet on the presidential election front right now, so let's take a look at Congress. Incumbents running for reelection are hard to defeat. About 90% of incumbents win, barring some kind of major scandal. Most changes in party affiliation happen when a seat is open due to a retirement, resignation, or death. In that light, let us look at seats where the person elected at the previous election is not running in 2008. First the Senate, then the House.

Five sitting senators elected in 2002, all Republicans, are not running for reelection. They are Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO), Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), and Sen. John Warner (R-VA). In addition, Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) resigned from the Senate and was replaced by Rep. Roger Wicker, who has to stand for election in 2008. Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY) died last year and was replaced by John Barrasso. He also has to stand for election in 2008. Thus the Republicans must defend five open seats and two appointed seats. It is likely they can hold Wyoming, Idaho, Mississippi, and Nebraska easily, but there will be huge fights in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. At this point, Democratic challenger Mark Warner is the odds-on favorite in Virginia, and the Democrats have good chances of picking up the other two as well. Combined with incumbents facing tough races in Oregon, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine, this looks like a bad year for the GOP in the Senate. For details of all 34 Senate races, go to our Senate page.

Here is a table showing the House seats where the person elected in 2006 will not be running in 2008. The PVI is Charlie Cook's index of how partisan a district is. A PVI of D+22 means that the districted voted 22% more Democratic than the country as a whole in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

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