We have a whole batch of new general election polls today. Here they are:
State
Clinton
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
AL
34
60
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
CA
47
42
Apr 16
Apr 16
Rasmussen
CA
53
40
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
IA
42
48
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
IN
42
53
Apr 14
Apr 16
IPFW U.
KS
36
57
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
KY
46
48
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
MA
56
41
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
MN
47
46
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
MO
47
46
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
NM
46
49
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
NY
49
37
Apr 14
Apr 15
Quinnipiac U.
NY
55
39
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
OH
53
42
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
OR
47
46
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
VA
39
55
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
WA
48
45
Apr 14
Apr 16
SurveyUSA
WI
46
46
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
AL
32
64
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
CA
50
43
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
CA
50
43
Apr 16
Apr 16
Rasmussen
IA
49
42
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
IN
44
51
Apr 14
Apr 16
IPFW U.
KS
37
54
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
KY
29
63
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
MA
48
46
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
MN
49
43
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
MO
42
50
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
NM
44
50
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
NY
47
39
Apr 14
Apr 15
Quinnipiac U.
NY
52
43
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
OH
45
47
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
OR
51
42
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
VA
44
52
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
WA
53
40
Apr 14
Apr 16
SurveyUSA
WI
49
44
Apr 11
Apr 13
SurveyUSA
With Obama as the nominee, the electoral college at the moment is Obama 260 to McCain 254 with 24 ties.
With Hillary Clinton as the nominee, it is Clinton 289 to McCain 239 with 10 ties.
Thus for the moment, her argument that she is more electable is true.
Her strength is that she wins Florida and Ohio although he offsets this by winning Michigan and Iowa, which she loses.
Also, he puts Colorado and North Carolina in play.
If Obama were to win Colorado and McCain were to win North Carolina, they would each have 269 electoral votes
and the new House would choose the President.
For the maps and details, click on the Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain links above.
Stu Rothenberg has come out with
new ratings
on House races. However, some of these are definitely arguable.. For example,
he rates Nancy Boyda's seat (KS-02) as a tossup, despite an extremely bitter Republican primary between
former congressman Jim Ryun and state treasurer Lynn Jenkins. Defeating an incumbent is hard enough without
the opposition being bitterly divided.
A bill that would have reimbursed states for getting rid of their untrustworthy electronic
voting machines and would have replace them with good old paper ballots got a majority of
votes in the House but failed to get the necessary 2/3 for fast track adoption. As a result,
many electronic voting machines will be used in November, with all the well-known problems of
these machines, such as the inability to do recounts.
For more on this, click
here.
Here are the new primary polls today.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
Indiana
IPFW U.
Apr. 16
45%
50%
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen
Apr. 17
47%
44%
Pennsylvania
Zogby
Apr. 16
45%
44%
Pennsylvania
Zogby
Apr. 17
47%
43%
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some
guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June.
Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters
slightly different stories that they interpret differently.
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