Apr. 14

Wyoming Caucus March 8 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (38%) Wisconsin Primary on February 19 1. Obama (58%) 2. Clinton (41%) West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27% West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27% Washington Caucus on February 9 1. Obama (68%) Virginia Primary on February 12 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (35%) Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%) Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%) Utah Primary on February 5 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (39%) Texas Hybrid on March 4 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (47%) Obama won caucuses &most delegates Tennessee Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (41%) South Dakota Primary on June 3 (total of 23 delegates) No polls have been published South Carolina Primary on January 26 1. Barack Obama (55%) 2. Hillary Clinton (27%) 3. John Edwards (18%) Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%) Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%) Pennsylvania Primary on April 22 (total of 187 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 10: Clinton 47% Obama 43% Apr 09: Clinton 47% Obama 41% Apr 08: Clinton 48% Obama 38% Oregon Primary on May 20 (total of 65 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 06: Clinton 42% Obama 52% Jan 29: Clinton 36% Obama 28% Aug 15: Clinton 26% Obama 18% Oklahoma Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (31%) Ohio Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (44%) North Dakota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%) North Carolina Primary on May 6 (total of 134 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 07: Clinton 39% Obama 49% Apr 03: Clinton 33% Obama 56% Mar 30: Clinton 38% Obama 51% New York Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (57%) 2. Obama (40%) New Mexico Caucus on February 5 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (49%) New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%) New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%) New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%) New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%) Nevada Caucus on January 19 1. Hillary Clinton (51%) 2. Barack Obama (46%) 3. John Edwards (4%) Nebraska Caucus on February 9 1. Obama 68% Clinton (32%) Montana Primary on June 3 (total of 25 delegates) Most recent polls: Dec 19: Clinton 29% Obama 17% Missouri Primary on February 5 1. Obama (49%) 2. Clinton (48%) Mississippi Primary on March 11 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%) Minnesota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%) Michigan Primary on January 15 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (55%) 2. Uncommitted (40%) 3. Dennis Kucinich (4%) Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%) Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%) Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%) Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%) Maine Caucus on February 10 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (40%) Louisiana Primary on February 9 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (36%) Kentucky Primary on May 20 (total of 60 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 30: Clinton 58% Obama 29% Kansas Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (26%) Iowa Caucus on January 3 1. Barack Obama (38%) 2. John Edwards (30%) 3. Hillary Clinton (29%) Indiana Primary on May 6 (total of 85 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 03: Clinton 53% Obama 44% Mar 31: Clinton 52% Obama 43% Feb 18: Clinton 25% Obama 40% Illinois Primary on February 5 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (33%) Idaho Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (80%) 2. Clinton (17%) Hawaii Caucus on February 19 1. Obama (76%) 2. Clinton (24%) Georgia Primary on February 5 1. Obama (66%) 2. Clinton (31%) Florida Primary on January 29 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (50%) 2. Barack Obama (33%) 3. John Edwards (14%) Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%) Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%) D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%) D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%) Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%) Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%) Colorado Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%) California Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (52%) 2. Obama (43%) Arkansas Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (69%) 2. Obama (27%) Arizona Primary on February 5 Clinton (51%) Obama (42%) Alaska Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (25%) Alabama Primary on February 5 1. Obama (56%) 2. Clinton (42%)

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News from the Votemaster

The candidates are skirmishing about whether the people in rural Pennsylvania are depressed about having their jobs shipped overseas. Maybe they could stop bickering long enough to suggest what they would do about the problem? Is it too much to expect that during a campaign the candidates would talk about their approaches to dealing with the nation's problems? You might expect that either one could score points by saying: "If I am elected, this is what I am going to do to help you..." But instead it looks like Lee Atwater is alive and well in Pennsylvania. In the absence of any polls today or any actual political news on the presidential front, let's go back to the discussion of the Senate started last week.

On April 9 we listed how liberal interest groups rated all the senators. Today we have ratings from the conservative interest groups. What is most striking is how polarized the Senate has become. With one exception, Ben Nelson (D-NE), even the least conservative Republican is more conservative than the most conservative Democrat. It was not like this at all in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. It is not so much that the Democrats have become more liberal as that the Republican party has been completely purged of the likes of Dwight Eisenhower, Nelson Rockefeller, Jacob Javits, and many other moderate Republicans. While Democrats have rid themselves of people like Sen. James Eastland (D-MS) and Sen. John Stennis (D-MS), there are still plenty of conservative Democrats around and not so many liberal firebrands like Barbara Boxer (D-CA). This incredible polarization is why the Senate has basically ceased to function. It used to be that most senators worked across the aisle. Now if a senator has lunch with a senator from the other party he or she can count on this as forming the basis for an attack ad come reelection time.

Also of note is that Barack Obama, with a conservative rating of 11% and Hillary Clinton, at 9%, hardly differ at all, and neither is anywhere near being the most liberal or most conservative Democrat. Interestingly enough, John McCain, at 73%, comes off as more moderate when rated by the conservative groups than when rated by the liberal groups. One might have thought that since the liberal groups clearly dislike McCain's voting record, the conservative groups would embrace it, but that is not the case. The difference could lie in precisely which votes each group counted.

The much-maligned Joe Lieberman (I-CT), whom progressives think of as a crypto-Republican, is slightly less conservative than their hero, Russ Feingold (D-WI).

Consider this: Of the 49 Republican senators, the one in the middle of the list, Richard Shelby (R-AL), has a conservative rating of 83%. The middle Democrat (counting Lieberman and Bernie Sanders as Democrats) is Ron Wyden (D-OR) at 10%. That's a 73% gap between the median Republican and the median Democrat. Is it any wonder than the Senate can't get anything done any more? The problem isn't that the senators can't agree on abortion and gay marriage. Nobody expects them to. The real problem is that this incessant ideological warfare on a few hot-button issues has kept the Senate from doing business on many other issues where left to their own devices, the senators could probably find common ground. After all, if John McCain (73% conservative rating) and Teddy Kennedy (7% conservative rating) could sit down together and write an immigration bill, a lot is possible.

Additional ratings from other interest groups can be found at www.vote-smart.org.

The eight groups used in this study are:

The data is available for download in .csv format so you can slice and dice the data as you wish. The ratings are for 2007 where available, otherwise for 2006. Actually, only the Eagle Forum had 2007 data, so all the others are 2006. For Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), some of his votes were made as a House member before he was appointed to the Senate.

The ratings by the liberal groups are here .

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com