Apr. 09

Wyoming Caucus March 8 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (38%) Wisconsin Primary on February 19 1. Obama (58%) 2. Clinton (41%) West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27% West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27% Washington Caucus on February 9 1. Obama (68%) Virginia Primary on February 12 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (35%) Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%) Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%) Utah Primary on February 5 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (39%) Texas Hybrid on March 4 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (47%) Obama won caucuses &most delegates Tennessee Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (41%) South Dakota Primary on June 3 (total of 23 delegates) No polls have been published South Carolina Primary on January 26 1. Barack Obama (55%) 2. Hillary Clinton (27%) 3. John Edwards (18%) Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%) Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%) Pennsylvania Primary on April 22 (total of 187 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 07: Clinton 56% Obama 38% Apr 07: Clinton 48% Obama 43% Apr 06: Clinton 50% Obama 44% Oregon Primary on May 20 (total of 65 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 06: Clinton 42% Obama 52% Jan 29: Clinton 36% Obama 28% Aug 15: Clinton 26% Obama 18% Oklahoma Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (31%) Ohio Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (44%) North Dakota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%) North Carolina Primary on May 6 (total of 134 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 07: Clinton 39% Obama 49% Apr 03: Clinton 33% Obama 56% Mar 30: Clinton 38% Obama 51% New York Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (57%) 2. Obama (40%) New Mexico Caucus on February 5 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (49%) New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%) New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%) New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%) New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%) Nevada Caucus on January 19 1. Hillary Clinton (51%) 2. Barack Obama (46%) 3. John Edwards (4%) Obama won most delegates Nebraska Caucus on February 9 1. Obama 68% Clinton (32%) Montana Primary on June 3 (total of 25 delegates) Most recent polls: Dec 19: Clinton 29% Obama 17% Missouri Primary on February 5 1. Obama (49%) 2. Clinton (48%) Mississippi Primary on March 11 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%) Minnesota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%) Michigan Primary on January 15 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (55%) 2. Uncommitted (40%) 3. Dennis Kucinich (4%) Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%) Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%) Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%) Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%) Maine Caucus on February 10 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (40%) Louisiana Primary on February 9 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (36%) Kentucky Primary on May 20 (total of 60 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 30: Clinton 58% Obama 29% Kansas Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (26%) Iowa Caucus on January 3 1. Barack Obama (38%) 2. John Edwards (30%) 3. Hillary Clinton (29%) Indiana Primary on May 6 (total of 85 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 03: Clinton 53% Obama 44% Mar 31: Clinton 52% Obama 43% Feb 18: Clinton 25% Obama 40% Illinois Primary on February 5 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (33%) Idaho Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (80%) 2. Clinton (17%) Hawaii Caucus on February 19 1. Obama (76%) 2. Clinton (24%) Georgia Primary on February 5 1. Obama (66%) 2. Clinton (31%) Florida Primary on January 29 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (50%) 2. Barack Obama (33%) 3. John Edwards (14%) Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%) Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%) D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%) D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%) Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%) Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%) Colorado Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%) California Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (52%) 2. Obama (43%) Arkansas Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (69%) 2. Obama (27%) Arizona Primary on February 5 Clinton (51%) Obama (42%) Alaska Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (25%) Alabama Primary on February 5 1. Obama (56%) 2. Clinton (42%)

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News from the Votemaster

Is Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) a liberal? Is Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a moderate? What about the other 98 senators? Where do they fit on the ideological spectrum? Let's look at some numbers. Hundreds of interest groups rate all members of Congress on how they vote on bills of special importance to them. If you vote with them all the time, you get a 100% rating. If you vote against them all the time, you get a 0% rating. These numbers are then distributed to their membership in an attempt to get members to vote for good members of Congress and against bad ones.

These ratings give us a tool to rate all the senators (there are too many House members to do this unless I can find a volunteer). Below seven representative liberal groups have been chosen and their ratings of all the senators given. The last column is the mean value. If you are a liberal, a high score is good (always votes correctly). If you are a conservative, a low score is good (never sucked in by that liberal stuff).

There are many noteworthy items to be found here. To start with, it is all blue on top and all red on the bottom (with senators Sanders and Lieberman counting as honorary Democrats since they caucus with the Democrats). With three exceptions, all Republicans are less liberal than the most conservative Democrat, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD). The three exceptions are the two ladies from Maine, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who are strongly pro-choice. If NARAL and abortion were not in the list, they would drop dramatically. The other Republican who floated to the top is Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), who, unlike John McCain, really is a maverick.

To start with, the Senate is incredibly polarized. Younger readers may not believe this, but it was not always so. In the 1950s and 1960s, the Senate was far less ideological. Northern Republicans like Jacob Javits (R-NY) were actually quite liberal and southern Democrats like Sen. James Eastland (D-MS) were still angry with the Republicans for freeing the slaves. In those days, the great divide was north-south, not Democrats-Republicans. Only when Richard Nixon began implementing his Southern strategy (i.e., using racism to win the votes of poor Southern whites) did we get to the current polarization.

So, what about Obama, Clinton, and McCain? Obama at 80% and Clinton at 82% are (1) not far apart and (2) among the least liberal Democrats. In contrast, John McCain at 9% is one of the most conservative Republicans. When McCain campaigned this year as a true conservative, he was telling the truth. He is more conservative than Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the minority leader, and more conservative than all the senators from Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia, not known as hotbeds of liberalism. Conclusion: when people say Obama and Clinton are liberals, that's not true; when people say McCain is a conservative, that is true.

That aside, there are some real anomalies here. For example, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) is quite liberal, more so than the Barbaras (Boxer and Mikulski, both of whom are known as real firebrands). But Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is the most conservative Democrat, despite the demographics of the two states being pretty similar. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who is often referred to in the blogosphere as a crypto-Republican actually has a more liberal rating than the other senator from Connecticut, Chris Dodd, who ran for President as a liberal.

Among Republicans, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) is one of the most liberal, despite coming from a rock-ribbed Republican state. And Lugar's record of being one of the Senate's few grown-ups on foreign policy issues does not even play a role here. And what about Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) of Utah? He ranks in the top quarter of Republicans. Surprise.

One caveat: a different selection of interest groups would no doubt give a different ordering. Still, this gives an indication. If you want to play with the data yourself, it is available in .csv format. A similar study of conservative groups is in the works and will be posted here in due course of time.

The table below is sorted on mean rating. Additional ratings from other interest groups can be found at www.vote-smart.org.

The seven groups used in this study are:

For Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), some of his votes were made as a House member before he was appointed to the Senate. The 2005 senator ratings are available here.

Thanks to Mike Martin for collecting the data.

Here are the new polls. It is hard to say what is going on in Pennsylvania. The polls are all over the map.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com