The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meets tomorrow and will decide what to do about Florida and Michigan.
Most likely result on Florida is seating all the delegates but with half a vote each. Michigan, where Obama's
name was not on the ballot, will be a bit trickier, but undoubtedly some compromise will come out. Chances
are Clinton will pick up a few dozen delegates but not enough to make much of a dent in Obama's delegate lead.
Nanyc Pelosi and Harry Reid are now starting to
push
the supers, many of whom are representatives or senators,
to get off the fence. After Wednesday, when the Montana and South Dakota voters have spoken, there is no
excuse saying "I'm waiting to see what the voters want." By Wednesday morning, every Democratic voter who
wanted to speak will have had the opportunity. It is expected that large numbers of supers will commit next week.
No primary polls today, but we have several general election polls.
State
Clinton
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Mississippi
38%
48%
May 27
May 27
Rasmussen
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Alabama
32%
60%
May 27
May 27
Rasmussen
Kansas
39%
49%
May 16
May 18
SurveyUSA
Michigan
40%
44%
May 19
May 22
EPIC-MRA
Mississippi
44%
50%
May 27
May 27
Rasmussen
Of special note is a Rasmussen poll for MS-B, where appointed senator Roger Wicker is trying to get elected
to the rest of Trent Lott's term. It is a dead heat between Wicker and former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D),
a conservative Democrat, with Musgrove ahead 47% to 46%. The Democrats are very likely to pick up Republican
seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico and have reasonable chances in Alaska, Oregon,
Minnesota, and Maine. If now Mississippi (and North Carolina) are in play, as recent polls suggest, the
Republicans have major battles on their hands in 10 senatorial contests. A year ago nobody would have believed
in five battles to be possible. Only one Democrat, Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is in any danger, and probably not
that much, really. At this point, a Democratic win of 5-10 seats in the Senate looks very plausible.
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
From the table below, it is clear that Obama's lead is now about 200 delegates.
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