The real reason candidates drop out of races is that they are out of cash.
The NY Times reports
that Hillary Clinton has $6 million in the bank but debts of $20 million.
Barack Obama has over $30 million in the bank and no appreciable debts.
Fortunately for Clinton, the remaining states and Puerto Rico are cheap media markets.
On the other hand, the remaining supers who are elected politicians know very well
how important the ability to raise money is and have a lot of respect for anyone who can do it extremely well.
Some more general election polls today, unfortunately not for both Democrats.
Maybe the other half will be released tomorrow. One extremely strange result is
Obama beating McCain in Virginia 49% to 42%, especially since yesterday a poll
from Virginia Commonwealth University had McCain winning Virginia. SurveyUSA
says that Obama wins in the 18-34 year-old group by 24%, gradually dropping
with age to a McCain lead of 15% among 65+ voters. Also noteworthy is that
Obama leads by 85% among blacks (to be expected) but also by 32% among latinos.
If Obama can win the young people, the blacks, the latinos, the college-educated,
and the people making over $50,000, he may be able to put together a winning
coalition. Also noteworthy in this poll is the geographical distribution. Obama
is very strong in the D.C. suburbs of northern Virginia and weak in the Shenandoah region.
State
Clinton
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
California
51%
39%
May 12
May 18
Public Policy Inst. of CA
California
54%
35%
May 19
May 20
Rasmussen
Florida
48%
41%
May 13
May 20
Quinnipiac U.
Nevada
46%
41%
May 20
May 20
Rasmussen
Ohio
48%
41%
May 13
May 20
Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania
50%
37%
May 13
May 20
Quinnipiac U.
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
California
52%
38%
May 19
May 19
Rasmussen
Nevada
40%
46%
May 20
May 20
Rasmussen
Virginia
49%
42%
May 16
May 18
SurveyUSA
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
A few more supers committed yesterday. Average the six news sources, Clinton has 1778 delegates to
Obama's 1964, a lead of 186 for Obama with 309 delegates yet to be determined. To win, Clinton needs 248
of the 309 or 80%. We still have Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota to go, but getting 80%
of what's left seems very unlikely. In particular, since Obama has already won a majority of the
pledged delegates, why would the supers massively overturn the will of the voters? And if they
were planning to do that, why wait any longer?
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