What can we say? The electorate has been so unstable this year so far
it is hard to predict a lot. People are changing their minds at the last minute,
the number of undecideds is exceptionally high, and despite record turnouts
(for primaries), the fraction of eligible voters who vote is still small making
it very hard for the pollsters to determine who is going to vote. In addition,
independents are allowed to vote in either primary in Texas and in Ohio.
In Ohio, they have to fill out a form changing their registration, but they can do that at the polling place.
Finally, Texas has a primary and a caucus tomorrow, which few people understand and asking
people to go to the polling place twice in the same day favors the candidate with
the most dedicated following. Factor in the delegate allocation rules with
the majority of the districts having an even number of delegates and it is hard
to make a lot of predictions. At this point it seems likely that Barack Obama will
do better in Texas than in Ohio and has a good chance to win the most delegates
(on account of his track record in caucuses) in Texas. Hillary Clinton seems a
bit ahead in Ohio, but even that is not sure, depending on how many independents show up.
Vermont is the only state where there is a clear expectation: Obama will sweep the
primary there. Rhode Island, home to many older blue collar workers, is likely to
give Clinton a small majority, but if the college students turn out in droves there,
even that is unsure.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all
sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote
at the convention.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
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