The Democrats are now engaged in a dynastic war.
Today Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) is going to
endorse
Barack Obama. This is a huge hit to Hillary Clinton.
Kennedy, the youngest brother of the late President John F. Kennedy, and with 45 years' seniority
the second longest-serving
member of the Senate (after Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV)), is the de facto keeper of the Kennedy
legacy. Obama is trying to run as the new JFK and having the brother of the original support him
gives him a tremendous amount of credibility. President Kennedy's only living child,
Caroline Kennedy, endorsed Obama on
Saturday.
With the Kennedy dynasty firmly in his corner, Obama is in a stronger position to fight the Clinton dynasty.
Many older Democrats still revere JFK as the greatest President since FDR.
For a lot of them, a high point of his administration occurred in Sept. 1962 when he sent his
brother, Robert F. Kennedy, the Attorney-General of the United States, to the University of Mississippi to
allow a black man,
James Meredith,
to enroll as a student at Ole Miss
against the unrelenting and virulent opposition of archsegregationist governor
Ross Barnett.
Bobby, as he was usually called, was accompanied by 500 armed federal marshalls who eventually forced Barnett to stop blocking
the schoolhouse door, but not before two people were killed and hundreds injured in the ensuing riot.
The event was a turning point of the civil rights movement
and the subject of at least one book.
Kennedy did what he thought was right, even though he knew it would cost his party votes
(in fact, the entire South, which was then solidly Democratic). Contrast
this attitude with the mentality of most current politicians (of both parties) who will say anything to get 50% plus one vote.
That in 2008 a young black man has a serious shot at becoming President of the United States has
shown how far we have come in 45 years. Only in America.
Turning from history to the present, the battle in Florida's renegade primary tomorrow is going full tilt
on the Republican side. This is a make-or-break day for Rudy Giuliani (probably break) and a critical one
for Mitt Romney and John McCain. The latest Florida polls show it to be very close, but as usual with primaries,
the pollsters are having a huge amount of trouble figuring out who is likely to vote.
Combined with the fact that many voters still haven't made up their minds, anything could happen.
If McCain wins this, he will be the favorite going into Superduper Tuesday next week; If Romney wins, the
race is wide open; if Giuliani wins, pigs will fly.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
California
Gallup
Jan. 26
11%
35%
27%
12%
5%
Colorado
Mason-Dixon
Jan. 23
32%
34%
17%
4%
24%
43%
17%
5%
Florida
ARG
Jan. 26
60%
27%
9%
11%
32%
33%
14%
4%
Florida
Insider Advantage
Jan. 26
17%
25%
25%
17%
6%
Florida
Rasmussen
Jan. 26
44%
25%
19%
18%
27%
33%
12%
2%
Florida
Zogby
Jan. 27
24%
33%
30%
11%
2%
New York
Gallup
Jan. 26
56%
28%
10%
24%
42%
14%
8%
5%
Pollster.com
has a nice article discussing why there is so much variance among the polls this year. Basically (1) many
voters don't decide until the very last minute and (2) different pollsters have different screens for determining
who is likely to vote.
CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count:
Welcome
FAQs
Donations
Icons for bloggers
Previous elections
Electoral coll. graph
Cartogram
Animated maps
Data galore
All Senate races
Hot House races
Political websites
Articles and books
Political humor