It is quiet on the presidential election front right now, so let's take a look
at Congress. Incumbents running for reelection are hard to defeat. About 90% of
incumbents win, barring some kind of major scandal. Most changes in party affiliation
happen when a seat is open due to a retirement, resignation, or death. In that light,
let us look at seats where the person elected at the previous election is not
running in 2008. First the Senate, then the House.
Five sitting senators elected in 2002, all Republicans, are not running for reelection. They are
Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO), Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID),
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), and Sen. John Warner (R-VA).
In addition, Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) resigned from the Senate and was replaced by Rep. Roger Wicker,
who has to stand for election in 2008. Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY) died last year
and was replaced by John Barrasso. He also has to stand for election in 2008.
Thus the Republicans must defend five open seats and two appointed seats.
It is likely they can hold Wyoming, Idaho, Mississippi, and Nebraska easily, but
there will be huge fights in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. At this point,
Democratic challenger Mark Warner is the odds-on favorite in Virginia, and the
Democrats have good chances of picking up the other two as well. Combined
with incumbents facing tough races in Oregon, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine, this looks
like a bad year for the GOP in the Senate. For details of all 34 Senate races,
go to our Senate page.
Here is a table showing the House seats
where the person elected in 2006 will not be running in 2008.
The PVI is Charlie Cook's index of how partisan a district is.
A PVI of D+22 means that the districted voted 22% more Democratic
than the country as a whole in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.
District
Incumbent
Party
PVI
Reason for departure
CA-12
Tom Lantos
Dem
D+22
Has cancer
NY-21
Michael McNulty
Dem
D+9
Apparently had enough after 10 terms; age: 60
IN-07
Julia Carson
Dem
D+9
Died Dec. 15, 2007
CO-02
Mark Udall
Dem
D+8
Running for Wayne Allard's Senate seat
ME-01
Tom Allen
Dem
D+6
Running against Susan Collins for the Senate
NM-03
Tom Udall
Dem
D+6
Running for Domenici's Senate seat
NJ-03
James Saxton
GOP
D+3
Apparently had enough after 12 terms; age: 64
NM-01
Heather Wilson
GOP
D+2
Running for Domenici's Senate seat
IL-11
Jerry Weller
GOP
R+1
Probably due to growing scandals
MN-03
Jim Ramstad
GOP
R+1
Not known; he could easily be reelected
NJ-07
Mike Ferguson
GOP
R+1
Not known
OH-15
Deborah Pryce
GOP
R+1
No. 4 is GOP leadership; minority is no fun (?)
AZ-01
Rick Renzi
GOP
R+2
Would be defeated due to corruption scandals
OH-16
Ralph Regula
GOP
R+4
At 82 and in the minority, he's had it
IL-14
Dennis Hastert
GOP
R+5
Too many scandals and loss of power
IL-18
Ray LaHood
GOP
R+5
Unknown; he is only 61
NM-02
Steve Pearce
GOP
R+6
Running for Domenici's Senate seat
LA-04
Jim McCrery
GOP
R+7
Ranking member of Ways and Means, sees he will never chair it
OH-07
David Hobson
GOP
R+6
Unclear; maybe his age (71)
CA-52
Duncan Hunter
GOP
R+9
Running for President
CO-06
Tom Tancredo
GOP
R+10
Made an abortive run for President
MS-01
Roger Wicker
GOP
R+10
Was appointed to fill Trent Lott's seat in the Senate
PA-05
John Peterson
GOP
R+10
Age and health reasons
CA-04
John Doolittle
GOP
R+11
One scandal too many
AL-02
Terry Everett
GOP
R+13
Unclear; he is a mere 70 and could serve 10 more years
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