Today we have caucuses in the state of Washington and Nebraska, and a primary
in Louisiana. In addition, there is a Republican primary in Kansas and a Democratic
primary in the Virgin Islands.
Maine caucuses tomorrow; Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. vote Tuesday.
The Democratic
battles between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are drawing most of the attention,
but a good showing by Mike Huckabee in his first head-to-head contest with John McCain
could impress McCain with Huckabee's vote-getting ability and increase the chances of McCain
picking him as Veep.
Of course McCain has many other considerations, too. One name which has floated about
lately is that of Charlie Crist, governor of Florida, which would lock up Florida for the Republicans.
A potential Democratic response in the form of Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)
or Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) might be precluded if Clinton were forced to take
Obama or Obama were forced to take Clinton.
Here are today's polls.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
Maryland
SurveyUSA
Feb. 8
33%
52%
56%
17%
10%
North Carolina
Public Policy Polling
Feb. 6
40%
42%
Virginia
SurveyUSA
Feb. 8
39%
59%
57%
25%
9%
Washington
SurveyUSA
Feb. 8
54%
25%
11%
Wisconsin
ARG
Feb. 7
50%
41%
51%
4%
7%
Conservative NY Times columnist David Brooks had an interesting
piece this week.
Brooks claims the divide among the Democrats is not male vs. female or black vs. white, it is the college educated
vs. high school grads. He says that when shopping you can go to Safeway or Whole Foods, to Walgreens or to
the Body Shop, buy a Windows PC or a Macintosh. In these and other cases, the former represents good products
at good prices; the latter tries to sell the experience as much as the product. Clinton is Safeway; Obama is
Whole Foods. High school grads want value for money and like Clinton. College grads want to enjoy the
experience and go for Obama.
While clearly not the whole story, it is indisputably true that Clinton has done much better among voters
with lower incomes and education whereas Obama's core voters are better off and have college degrees
(with the addition of black and younger high school grads).
In fact a lot has been made about the reluctance of college-educated, high-powered, successful women to flock to Clinton,
who after all, is a college-educated, high-powered, successful woman.
Gerard Baker of the
London Times has a similar column.
The press is finally starting to see the potential trainwreck for the Democrats in August.
See, for example, this story in the
L.A. Times
and this one in the
Washington Post.
As loyal readers know, this is a topic we have touched on repeatedly in the past month. If Clinton does well
in the coming weeks (and this week looks quite bad for her), there will be a lot of pressure on Obama
to accept the Veep slot and then run in 2016. If Obama does well in the coming weeks, it is hard to imagine
Obama offering the Veep slot or Clinton taking it if offered. His best scenario is to deliver a knockout
blow in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count:
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