If you have been here before, you might have noticed the new map with bright
pretty colors. If you have a feeling it may be up there for the next few months,
you're probably right. Barring very unforeseen developments, the Democratic race
will go on well beyond today and if Mitt Romney can pull off an upset in
California, it might go on for the Republicans, too.
The rules are a bit complicated since in some states it is
winner-take-all statewide, in others it is winner-take-all
per congressional district, and in still others it is
strictly proportional to the vote. In most cases, the PLEOs,
superdelegates, unpledged delegates, etc. are allocated by
yet other rules.
We have polls galore today. All the major polling firms are working overtime
to crank out the data. Actually, Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are probably not
working overtime--they are completely automated; computers make the calls and
prerecorded messages from professional radio announcers are played. ("Press 1 for Clinton,
press 2 for Obama".) Few, if
any, human beings are in the loop, yet both firms have good track records.
For more on polling technology, click on the FAQs link above. Below are the
latest polls.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Alabama
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
47%
49%
37%
19%
35%
6%
California
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
53%
41%
39%
36%
9%
7%
California
SurveyUSA
Feb. 4
52%
42%
39%
38%
11%
5%
California
Zogby
Feb. 3
40%
46%
32%
40%
12%
5%
California
Zogby
Feb. 4
36%
49%
33%
40%
12%
3%
Connecticut
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
46%
48%
52%
30%
7%
6%
Georgia
Zogby
Feb. 3
31%
48%
Georgia
Zogby
Feb. 4
29%
49%
Illinois
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
30%
66%
46%
25%
17%
8%
Massachusetts
Suffolk U.
Feb. 3
44%
46%
37%
50%
4%
3%
Massachusetts
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
56%
39%
37%
58%
3%
1%
Missouri
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
54%
43%
33%
28%
31%
6%
Missouri
Zogby
Feb. 3
47%
42%
35%
24%
27%
5%
Missouri
Zogby
Feb. 4
42%
45%
34%
25%
27%
4%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 3
48%
43%
52%
30%
9%
New Jersey
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
52%
41%
54%
25%
7%
6%
New Jersey
Zogby
Feb. 3
43%
43%
52%
26%
7%
4%
New Jersey
Zogby
Feb. 4
46%
41%
53%
24%
5%
4%
New York
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 3
53%
39%
54%
22%
9%
New York
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
56%
38%
56%
23%
8%
4%
New York
Zogby
Feb. 3
53%
19%
8%
5%
New York
Zogby
Feb. 4
56%
20%
7%
2%
Oklahoma
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
54%
27%
37%
23%
32%
3%
Texas
IVR
Jan. 31
48%
38%
29%
30%
20%
8%
Washington
SurveyUSA
Feb. 3
40%
53%
40%
26%
17%
9%
There have been so many polls this past week it is hard to know what to do with them.
Below is a straightforward analysis: just take the most recent poll and all other polls
taken within a week of it and average them all equally. The partisan pollsters like
Strategic Vision (R) and Lake Research (D) have been ignored as they are in the business
of getting candidates elected, not sampling the public's mood. Here are the averages.
The "Tot. delegates" column includes the PLEOs, superdelegates, unpledged delegates, etc.
See the Jan. 31 posting
for the breakdown.
More analysis below the tables.
Democrats
State
Tot. delegates
Clinton
Obama
Date
Pollster
Alabama
60
44
44
Feb 03
Four polls
Alaska
18
?
?
None
Arizona
67
44
40
Feb 01
Mason+Rasmu
California
441
44
42
Feb 04
Ten polls
Colorado
71
32
34
Jan 23
Mason-Dixon
Connecticut
60
46
44
Feb 03
Surve+ARG-1+Surve
Delaware
23
44
42
Feb 01
ARG
Democrats Abroad
11
?
?
None
Georgia
103
34
50
Feb 04
Seven polls
Idaho
23
?
?
None in 2008
Kansas
23
?
?
None in 2008
Illinois
185
30
58
Feb 03
Four polls
Massachusetts
121
50
39
Feb 03
Four polls
Minnesota
88
40
33
Jan 27
U. of Minnesota
Missouri
88
46
43
Feb 04
Eight polls
New Jersey
127
48
40
Feb 04
Nine polls
New Mexico
23
?
?
None in 2008
New York
281
54
37
Feb 03
Five polls
North Dakota
21
?
?
None
Oklahoma
47
48
22
Feb 03
Surve+Soone
Tennessee
85
50
32
Feb 02
Four polls
Utah
29
29
53
Feb 01
Dan Jones
Republicans
State
Tot. delegates
McCain
Romney
Date
Pollster
Alabama
48
37
18
Feb 03
Five polls
Alaska
29
?
?
None
Arizona
53
43
34
Jan 31
Rasmussen
Arkansas
34
?
?
None in 2008
California
173
36
35
Feb 04
Ten polls
Colorado
46
24
43
Jan 23
Mason-Dixon
Connecticut
30
49
29
Feb 03
Surve+ARG-1+Surve
Delaware
18
41
35
Feb 01
ARG
Georgia
72
32
30
Feb 02
Four polls
Illinois
70
43
26
Feb 03
Four polls
Massachusetts
43
33
55
Feb 03
Four polls
Minnesota
41
41
17
Jan 27
U. of Minnesota
Missouri
58
34
26
Feb 04
Eight polls
Montana
25
?
?
None in 2008
New Jersey
52
51
26
Feb 04
Nine polls
New York
101
54
23
Feb 04
Eight polls
North Dakota
26
?
?
None
Oklahoma
41
39
20
Feb 03
Surve+Soone
Republicans Abroad
0
-
-
(Not part of party)
Tennessee
55
30
22
Feb 02
Four polls
Utah
36
4
84
Feb 01
Dan Jones
West Virginia
29
?
?
None in 2008
So, what's going on? Obama is definitely surging everywhere, but whether
this will be enough to overcome Clinton's lead remains to be seen. Romney
is also moving up in California, but it might be too little too late. Here
are some things to watch for. First, California is the big enchilada. The
GOP primary is winner-take-all per congressional district. A big win here and someone is on the road to the
nomination. The Democratic primary is proportional by congressional district.
It is likely that the number of delegates won by Clinton and Obama will be
close, but the psychological factor of "winning California" is huge.
Missouri is another state to watch. It is a genuine bellwether, picking the
winner in nearly every presidential election since WWII. Also important is
the turnout there. If one party has a massive turnout and the other does not,
that says something about what might happen in November. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
has been campaigning her heart out for Obama this week, which may help him with
women there.
Watch the South. Voters go to the polls in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and
Arkansas today. How do Obama and Clinton play there? Obama will probably get
most of the black vote in those states. The South is also of critical
important to the Republicans--it is their base. Watch McCain's percentage
there. If he can barely muster 35% in the South, that doesn't bode well for
November if he is the nominee. Many southern conservatives may stay home
on election day.
Actually, McCain has achieved a lifetime rating of 82% from the American
Conservative Union (vs. an 8% rating for Obama and a 9% rating for Clinton).
But some people accept nothing less than perfection.
Something you can't watch, but is still important, are the PLEOs, superdelegates,
unpledged delegates, and the like. For the Democrats, these make up 20%
of the delegates. For the Republicans, somewhat less. These are party activists
and elected politicians, who tend to have a keen sense of which way the wind is
blowing. If you are a congressman and you back the wrong elephant, you may come
to regret it. Elephants never forget. Donkeys aren't much worse, though.
Watch the Spin Dept.: Tomorrow everybody is going to claim they won.
Depends on the meaning of "win." You could define it as (1) the most votes
nationwide, (2) the most delegates, (3) the most states, (4) the most
electoral votes, or maybe something else. Huckabee will claim victory on the
basis of most votes per dollar spent campaigning. Ron Paul will claim
victory on the basis of most money raised in Dec. Everybody will think of
something. In some cases, the declaration of victory may occur in the same
speech announcing that the candidate is dropping out, although probably
no one will drop out. It might make sense for Huckabee to drop out since
it will be clear tomorrow that he has no chance of winning, but he is
doing McCain a huge favor by staying in and splitting the conservative
vote, probably allowing McCain to get the nomination with only 40% of the
vote. McCain may remember this favor when it comes time to pick a Veep.
Huckabee, who is currently unemployed, would appreciate a job, especially one that pays
$208,100, is indoor work, and requires no heavy lifting.
Finally, Cook/RT Strategies just released some head-to-head polls for the
general election. Here they are.
Democrat
Pct
Republican
Pct
Clinton
41
McCain
45
Obama
45
McCain
43
Clinton
48
Romney
42
Obama
50
Romney
41
If McCain is the GOP nominee, he beats Clinton but loses narrowly to Obama.
If Romney is the GOP nominee, it will be a rout.
But November is a LOOOONG ways away. A lot can change.
CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count:
Welcome
FAQs
Donations
Icons for bloggers
Previous elections
Electoral coll. graph
Cartogram
Animated maps
Data galore
All Senate races
Hot House races
Political websites
Articles and books
Political humor