The Pennsylvania primary has drained everyone. There isn't much actual political news right now.
Just a lot of sniping and infighting about whose fault it will be if the Democrats do the impossible and
lose an election that nobody thought they could lose.
We do have two new polls in Indiana however. ARG has Clinton ahead 50% to 45% and Selzer has Obama ahead
41% to 38%. Ann Selzer is a cheery redhead who runs a polling firm in Des Moines. Normally she
polls only Iowa and her Iowa caucus polls are legendary in their accuracy. Her final poll before the Iowa caucuses said
Obama would beat Clinton by 7%; he beat her by 9%. But once in a while she branches out and polls a neighboring
state. She says that Indiana is now a statistical tie. Of course there will be a hard fought campaign
until the May 6 primary, so a lot can change.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Indiana
ARG
Apr. 24
50%
45%
Indiana
Selzer
Apr. 23
38%
41%
Selzer also did a general election poll for Indiana. It shows Obama beating McCain there 49% to 41%
whereas Clinton ties McCain at 46%. However, Research 2000 has McCain beating both of them.
A Rasmussen poll shows Obama and McCain in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania whereas Clinton beats him
47% to 42%. These data strengthen her case that she is stronger in the traditional industrial Democratic
states and his case that he puts more states in play.
If you have some free time and want to know how the remaining states will vote in the Democratic
primary, the NY Times has produced a nice
chart
telling you how a county will vote. All you need is the demographic information, which you can no doubt
find with a bit of help from Google.
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some
guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June.
Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters
slightly different stories that they interpret differently.
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