Apr. 21

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News from the Votemaster

Here are three more Pennsylvania polls.

Here are all the Pennsylvania polls from the past week. Hillary Clinton's double digit lead has vanished, but she still has a solid single-digit lead. Obama has been spinning this as "if she doesn't win by double digits, then I really won." Clinton has been saying "The person who gets the most votes wins." Despite the intense campaigning of the past two weeks, this has been a race where demography is destiny. TV ads or no TV ads, Pennsylvania is still full of older blue-collar workers, many of whom have been laid off, as well as many retirees. These people have consistently supported Clinton and are likely to do so tomorrow. Furthermore, many white Catholic voters are still undecided and chances are they will break for Clinton as they have in other states. Obama's main hope is getting a huge turnout in Philadelphia, especially among younger voters.

The candidates have reported their March fundraising totals now. Here they are. For the Democrats, the cash on hand is for the primaries as of March 31. Each one also has money for the general election that can't be spent until nominated.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com